The Bicentennial of a Failure. The Venezuelan Economic Growth

UNIVERSIDAD CENTRAL DE VENEZUELA FACULTY OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES POST-GRADUATED COMISSION Professor GIUSEPPE DE CORSO

The Bicentennial of a Failure. The Venezuelan Economic Growth from the Late Colonial Age To the Bolivarian Revolution. A Quantitative History AbstractAn inform published by ECLAC in 2003 (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) under the title: El Desarrollo económico de America Latina en épocas de globalización- Una agenda de investigación, called on the Institution to design and implement a new research agenda directed toward the reconstruction of long economic series to better understand the past performance of Latin America economy as a whole to make a correct analysis of the present day challenges. Therefore going beyond and complementing the short-term concern with development with a longer view on economic progress. The mentioned paper remember us that it was Raul Prebish who even before Simon Kuznets, made an effort to measured economic progress on the basis of an homogenous and standardized method that he used for Mexico, Brazil , Argentina and Chile. The aim of this paper is to fulfill this gap for Venezuela, profiting from the fact that we are in the middle of the year of the Bicentennial Independence Commemorations. For that purpose we have built a GDP and population historical series starting in 1783 and ending in 2009, employing for the colonial period a statistical method that regresses foreign commerce on the relation between the national product and exports - imports for the period between 1830-1870, before the impact created by the new economic policies implemented by the Autocratic Government of Guzman Blanco with its emphasis on progress. For the series 1830-1949 we employed an expenditure approach to reconstruct the product of Venezuela by using as departing point a dynamic consumer basket to get household/ personal consumption, then adding up government expenditures, net exports and private investment. We link the series from 1783 to 1949 with the Central Bank of Venezuela macroeconomic information for the interval 1950-2009, thus obtaining the GDP and real income series from the late colonial era to the Bolivarian revolution. That is a long economic series of 226 years. The series submitted in the paper is expressed in current prices, 1984 constant bolivars and 1990 international dollars. The paper includes two Price indexes for the period 1830-1949, a General Price Index from 1830 to 1949 and Food and Beverage Index for 1830-1949, a deflator for the period 17832009, an economic balance of the independence war, a critical review of the partial series suggested by professors Asdrubal Baptista and Tomas Enrique Carrillo Batalla, an quantitative performance evaluation of the Venezuelan economy from the late eighteen century to the present , the prices of the principal products consume by the Venezuelan people during the 19TH century and early 20Th and data, energy consumption , material wealth, and cross country comparisons with the largest Latin American economies ( Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina). The method proposed and employed- in this case for Venezuela- could be applied with great advantages for others Latin America countries lacking enough data to build satisfactory long economic series using the income or output approaches. We were able to identify six economic phases for Venezuela: The first one from 1783 to 1797 of economic expansion, followed by stagnation, from 1800 to 1810,

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when the colonial economy reached her frontier production boundary. During the war of independence a marked contraction of the GDP followed by a fast recuperation. The fourth, from 1830 to 1924, describe as a stationary economy. The fifth, from 1920 to 1958, of oil driven development, characterize by a high velocity growth, the sixth, from 1958 to 1978 define as a mature oil economy with slow growth, and the last one from 1979 , designated as an era of stagnation and relative decline vis a vis the rest of Latin America.

Very Preliminary English Version

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INDEX Introduction --------------------------------------------------- 4 Wealth and Venezuelans ---------------------------------

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Review of Previous Studies ------------------------------ 19 Methodology Series ---------------------------------------- 38 Population ---------------------------------------------------- 46 Food Consumption and Manufacture ------------------ 53 Measuring the Colonial Economy 1783-1829 ------- 65 The Century of Coffee 1830-1925 --------------------- 92 Time of Oil----------------------------------------------------- 117 Bibliography -------------------------------------------------- 136 Statistical annexes ----------------------------------------- 145 Epoch images from newspapers -----------------------

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Introduction Present research is a continuation of a previous working paper where we present an historical series of the Venezuelan Gross Domestic Product (GDP)1 ; we incorporate new sections, taking advantage of the Bicentennial celebration of the Independence of Venezuela to offer an overview of the economy through the reconstruction of its national accounts. We made some corrections that although didn’t change the trend for the period 1830-1935, has produced an improvement of the series by making use of

new data on levels of private gross fixed

investment, recently obtained from new information from imported capital and intermediate goods. We have added an estimate for the period 1783-1829, so the series includes the last 28 years of the colonial period until 1811, 19 years of the First and Second Republic, the Independence War and the Great Colombia period. Also, we include 180 years from the effective birth of the Republic of Venezuela, covering the period from 1830 to 2009. That is, the GDP series presented contains a total 226 years. This is the first comprehensive GDP series built for Venezuela and maybe one of the longest in Latin America. Venezuela has not attracted much attention in the academic world, but we believe this is a thought-provoking country and a good case to understand not only economic but also societal failure and institutional collapse in less developed countries with a large potential platform for growth. The Venezuelan historical experience has many topics worth revising: mantuanos (landowners during colonial time) were among the first social group in South America to mature a nationalist conscious and drastically break the colonial bond with the mother country, Spain. Perhaps one of the first authentic popular militaristic caudillo was born in the middle of the Venezuelan Independence war, José Tomàs Boves. The Venezuelan economy was essentially a pre-modern tropical agricultural one until the arrival of oil exploitation during the dictatorship of Juan Vicente Gomez. Oil wealth produced not just an intense transformation in the material conditions of the country but also offered, challenging the natural resources curse theory, a fertile ground for an experiment in democracy and occidentalization. We sharply disagree with today’s 1

In previous paper we included an annex we have ignored in this paper due to space reasons. Author's Note

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opinions that the Venezuelan democratic experiment was a complete failure from the beginning until the end as it was predestined to downfall. It had a golden age from 1958 to 1973. The country, during that time was governed with prudence and pragmatism, a pluralistic and open Institutional framework was developing slowly , of course with problems and limits, but without great risks, not even the pro-Fidel Castro guerrilla in the sixties, which was indeed easily defeated, thanks to the massive popular consensus democracy had. Even many of the guerrilla leaders became later on integrated in the democratic institutional framework. Middle class growth was simply impressive, by 1973 close to 60% of Venezuelan population belonged to that social group. The GDP per capita of Venezuela was higher or very close to that of southern European countries like Italy and Spain until the late seventies. Poverty was relative mild if compare with neighborhood countries. The economy was run with caution and successfully, low inflation, good rates of growth, a reasonable income distribution between capital and work, a moderate fiscal policy, well implemented and effective social programs in education and health were the norm. Venezuela was a safe sanctuary for persecuted Latin Americans by the Military Regimes that controlled great part of the Continent. The First oil boom and the Presidency of Carlos Andres Perez from 1973 to 1978 altered the country’s course; it became drunk with oil and never recuperated its previous equilibrium, setting off a long decline that has caused the comeback of crude caudillismo vested in pro- Cuban socialism and taken the country to the brink of civil war and bankruptcy. The Petrostate was born during the first Administration of Perez. So a second look to the Venezuelan socio- economic laboratory could be challenging. . We chose to work an economic topic for two reasons. The first, the majority of the editorial proposals for the Bicentennial celebration, both from government and private institutions focused their attention overwhelmingly to the so called “the unchanged story”, borrowing the title Ines Quintero used for her book2. The closest to a "historiographical" debate was the one that occurred around the involvement of mixed race militias (“milicias pardas”) and popular sectors in the conspiracy against Captain General Vicente Emparan and the creation of the Junta of Caracas 2

Quintero Inés. El relato invariable: Independencia, mito y nación

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following the events of April 19, 1810, in contrast to the already known role play by the white “mantuanos”, even so, behind

the apocryphal debate

there was

concealed the enduring conflict, at least since the mid-eighteenth century,

for

prestige, power and wealth between mestizos and white Venezuelans; amongst both the occidental and non-occidental alms of the country. This conflict run like an underground spring in the social structure of the country, and under some historical circumstances overflows with unusual force. The second reason is that for more than a decade we have accumulated and organized data and literature for certain neighboring economies and for Venezuela to try to estimate the national’s accounts with relatively more solid foundation of those made so far. Unfortunately due to the limitations that currently live our academic centers, as the result of the unscrupulous practices made by the Government; we have limited ourselves to this brief paper. We hope that better times will allow us to bring this project to its conclusion end and thus offer an alternative reading about the economic history of Venezuela, different from the dependency scheme that still hegemonies in our academic centers. Our goal, as can be inferred from the title of the essay, is to try to estimate and analyze the Venezuelan economic growth over nearly four centuries, which means, since the end of eighteenth century - the final stage of the colony- until the first decade of the XXI century. Several themes will be the focus of our attention: 1) build a long series of gross domestic product (GDP) and of per capita income (GDP per capita) from 1783 to 2009 expressed in bolivars and dollars. 2) Also, we intend to contextualize the behavior of the Venezuelan economy in the western hemisphere, comparing its performance with other nations in Latin America. This is what our colleagues in the Anglo-Saxon world, known by the term Cross Country Comparisons. 3) Last but not least, is to provide to the interested historians in the Venezuelan economy with some figures and bibliographic sources that may be useful for future research. It is worth noting that in recent years the Gross Domestic Product 3

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as a measure of the flow of aggregate wealth has received a real

Frey S. Bruno y Stutzer Alois. Economia e Felicità. Il Sole 24 Ore

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firestorm of criticism. In fact, it doesn´t seem very reasonable to reduce the variety and intangible wealth of community life to a frivolous accounting operation. But equally we are aware, so far, that the GDP per capita is the measure that best describes both the material welfare and the economic development of society.

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Wealth and Venezuelans To start our study is unavoidable to discuss first the prevailing view in Venezuela regarding to the idea of wealth, because this notion decisively influences the performance in the long term of the Venezuelan economy. We cannot forget to make a brief commentary on this topic in this paper, living today the Republic of Venezuela a complex political, social and economic situation. We want to clarify that this reflection on wealth conception and its relation with Venezuelans is made in an historical context of strong polarization in the country of origin of its author, and therefore this brief consideration is a vision that may be the subjective expression of the historical moment, so all errors and omissions are our sole responsibility. In relation to the belief on the production of wealth, which apparently dominates Venezuela, we are bound to be short and simplifying, as we do not intended to describe in detail the argument from the socio-anthropological point of view or enter into the analysis of the relationship between abundant natural resources and political instability, so we will just make a remark, guided by observation and experience, the result a of intimate thoughts on this argument. We will, therefore, describe very briefly the Venezuelan´s idea of prosperity and wealth, both at individual and national level and how that idea influences the social, economic and political dynamic4. The feelings or sensations of a community or/and an individual are by definition subjective and relative, depending from factors not necessarily rational or verifiable, and may be the result of a particular state of mind or a shared worldview. In this regard, a strange observer would be shocked by the Venezuelan case. Recently 64% of respondents from that country, at a GALLUP survey5, considered its personal situation as prosper. Countries leading the classification by the study are: Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Australia and Finland. That is, the Venezuelans positioned their country between the five or six countries with a greater sense of 4

Two books are essential for understanding Venezuela: “El Estado Mágico” by Fernando Coronil and “Viajeros de las Indias” by Fernando Herrera Luque. See references. 5 . Refers to the Gallup World Poll on the perception of wellbeing, 2010 in which Venezuelans ranked in the top six countries in the world with Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Australia and Finland. http:// www.gallup.com/ poll/147167/high-wellbeing-eludes-masses-countries-worldwide.aspx

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prosperity on the planet. While for an unprepared observer of the events in Venezuela, this result may be surprising and leading to wrong conclusions, this is not so for those who known the anthropological and idiosyncratic characteristics of the nation. It is very complicated to understand and explain how can Venezuelans feel themselves as members of an opulent society with a deficit of residential housing of around 78 per thousand inhabitants, wages among the lowest in the region when it is measured by the dollar price of the free market, one of the world's highest inflation, and no growth in real income per capita from the distant 1977. The reason could be placed either on obvious unlimited optimism or the relevance of the myth of "natural" wealth and particularly the oil as an illusion, as a magical connection between society and economy and in the building of the representation of prosperity in the collective imagination. In Venezuela wealth is a phenomenon understood as spontaneous, flows abundantly from the bowels of the earth, is not the product of systematic work; is an exogenous event, independent of human activity and is everywhere to be freely appropriate and consumed by all. The State acts as mediator between the fertility of the subsoil and the society, distributing that income. The Venezuelan state is in fact a mighty Landlord State. Consequently, the real dilemma of national economic policy is not growth or development, but a fair distribution of abundant natural wealth. Following the previous proposition, there is an historical association and continuity between the story of the Land of Grace (“Tierra de Gracia”), where the Spanish conquistador arrived to exploit its riches, the legend of The Dorado and the modern perception of oil as an unlimited source of welfare, real or perceived. This perspective about prosperity is complemented by a manifest sense of equality among the population, that since the nineteenth century has been a major political and ideological flag in Venezuela and that distinguishes it from other countries in the region6. Although this patent inclination to social equality is obvious and even obsessive in everyday language, is not an organized sociopolitical project, however

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Ramírez Ribes, María. Patrones y Valores Culturales, Mentalidad y Hábitos en la Sociedad Venezolana. Unpublished. Presented at the Rome Club, Caracas Chapter.Apps.ucab.edu.ve without date.

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it serves to mobilize the population around whom better decodes it, as happened during the Federal War in the nineteenth century, in the case of Democratic Action (“Acción Democrática”, a left center political party) in the forties of the twentieth century and now with the Bolivarian Revolution. It is rather a share sentiment in different social strata of the Venezuelan population, but solidly grounded in the popular sectors. Its origins probably go back to the colonial period and can be explained by the social antagonism between mestizo (“pardos”) and white and aspiration of the first to emulate the white mantuanaje (from “mantuanos”, the land and slave owners creole inhabitants in the Venezuelan colonial society) in prestige, affluence and power. In fact, the conception of wealth as a fortuitous phenomenon and a radical egalitarianism sentiment as genealogy of social relationships are the opposite sides of the same coin that continually define and mold, with fluctuations, the direction of the economy and long-term politics in Venezuela. Conceiving nature as the only source of wealth implies that the members of the society, without distinction of social classes and regardless of their contribution, considered themselves as a carrier of an inherent right, immanent, to participate proportionately in the enjoyment of that heritage. It is common to hear in popular protests, the phrase "I have the right to get a house or a better salary because I am Venezuelan". Likewise, businesses are permanently demanding the granting of preferential dollars, product of the oil income, for the simple reason that those dollars come from the oil, a common own good, and therefore they do not have to generate them in the international market through the exportation of its production. It is sufficient to make a submission to a bureaucratic government agency. That is, what belongs to everybody really belongs to nobody, is there simply to be consumed or appropriate, so in Venezuela, the idea of property is very fragile in all layers of society. If any individual, social class or ethnic group consumes more than the rest, the origin can only be found in corruption, looting, exploitation or simply the influence or connection the person or social group have into the mechanism of production and

distribution of wealth, i.e. the State. Therefore,

social conflict in Venezuela tend to worsen when the prices of the “fruits of the nature" (coffee in the nineteenth century, oil in the twentieth century) show a 10

propensity to decrease in international markets. At these junctures the contraction of income is seen, by most in society, as the result of unlawful and unfair distribution of natural wealth and not as the logical result of the structural weaknesses of an economic system organized on weak grounds. The collapse of liberal democracy and the arrival of the Bolivarian revolution is the unequivocal consequence of the long economic crisis that began in 1977 and deepened after the 1983 devaluation of the currency. The absence of economic growth

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in those

years is the crucial reason why liberal democracy lost the political consensus in both popular and middle class sectors. The fall in oil revenues, the institutional paralysis, the external debt crisis, and the huge expatriation of capital and the consequent devaluation of the currency ended the progress, confidence and, above all, the distribution of natural wealth, which from the distant twenties (twentieth century) was characteristic of the socio-economic development in Venezuela. It is precisely under these circumstances that reemerged stronger than ever the old egalitarian reaction, and on its behalf is justify the destruction of freedom and the oppression by the majority. It is within this scenario that resurfaces social and racial hatred and antagonism, which plunges rooted in the very formation of Venezuelan nationality and is latent in the collective psyche. The Bolivarian revolution is basically the political and social expression of that conflict whose origins can be traced back in the Colonial period8. The Bolivarian revolution, regardless of other factors, has managed to keep alive a substantial popular consensus in the low-income socio-economic sectors (which is source of its electoral capital), thanks to high oil prices and the distribution of rent among the people. Therein lays the authentic magnetism of the President, on the foundation of a solid clientelistic bond between the “Caudillo”President and the mestizo Venezuelans. On one hand, there are the popular sectors eager to gain economic and social prestige, without employing much effort but just exhibiting their devotion to the Caudillo, and on the other there is a 7

. See The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth by Benjamin Friedman, where he argues the relationship between democracy and economic growth. 8 See Izard Miguel. Miedo a la Revolución. Capitulo 6 Conflicto de Intereses y Enfrentamientos de Clase y Casta

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repeatedly promise from the leader to offer a better life for his followers in exchange for loyalty. It is no coincidence that each electoral process is preceded by the release of new social “missions” (free donations, like scholarships), all named with romantic denominations that seek to strengthen the emotional relationship throughout the material one, between the President and the people. Donations and hands out of many kind or programs are designed to increase consumption as, for example, a sort of credit card called "The good life card" issued by the State Bicentenario National Bank, to support popular consumption. In the Bolivarian Venezuela, the electoral consensus or the cynical indifference are purchased with oil revenues. Of course, the fraction of income used to support the political consensus of the majority is minimal compared with that which is conquered by the elite in power, like contractors and high bureaucrats in the service of a political regime and the business orbiting around institutions, as the currency exchange control system, which is the quintessential bureaucratic apparatus used to distribute petrodollars. Consciousness, ideology, community and civic values, socialism are sometimes empty or simply incomprehensible speeches for the clientela, whose real interest and desire are to get something from the State, such as an academic degree, scholarships, free housing, soft credits, preferential dollars procurement ,etc. Venezuelans are a very down to earth people and not the heroic conscious follower of an epic revolution as the Bolivarian propaganda depicts them. This should not surprise and disturb the reader, because Venezuela is a country with a structurally parasitic economy, otherwise denominated rent seeking, living and breathing on international oil revenues9. The articulation of the relationship between the Leader-President and the common people has extremely complex sociological and historical tones. For example, women of the popular sectors, very often family´s heads, perceive the President as the absent partner, husband or father. The evangelical churches, which are widespread in low income areas, consider him their financial sponsor, the authority placed by "God" in the 9

See the work by Omar Ovalles. Movimiento de Cuadro de Vida en la Venezuela Urbana. Revista Eure N°37, Volume 13. Electronic versión, november 1986. Universidad Pontificia Católica de Chile. In this paper he argues the parasite character of Venezuelan society

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control of the country to build a Christian republic based on equality and material wealth for all. The President is recognized by lower social strata as ones of them, that is an underprivileged mestizo. Thus race matters in Venezuelan politics more than Venezuelans want to acknowledge. These observations we made, deserve a detailed study, which is not our goal in this paper. However, they translated into an economic policy whose basic course is the distribution of income at the expense of growth and the productive sectors, to patronage economically that part of the population, mostly mestizos, unable to produce a surplus, as were unethically and cynically judged by the late General Alberto Mueller Rojas, one of the ideologue of Bolivarian socialism, in his book “Epoca de Revolucion” en Venezuela”. Given the shortcoming of oil income to sustain indefinitely the distribution policy, due to fluctuations of prices in the international market, the complementary alternatives are expropriation, debt and inflation, originated the last one by a chronic monetary expansion to sustaining the viability of the system and the politics of consensus. The three conditions are integral components of the political economy of the Bolivarian Revolution, far more than in the liberal democratic past, and are not the result of a contingent situation; are the substitute’s gears of the political - economic mechanism to prolong distribution, when oil income decreases or is simply insufficient to pay the operative political costs. In fact the Bolivarian State is radical version of the preceded liberal democracy which was unable, in the final analysis, to really evolve toward a pluralistic Institutional arrangement. This kind of economic distributing policy is initially sustained by the oil revenue, but depends on other financial sources when oil revenues fail. Egalitarianism linked to the idea of wealth detached from a solid work ethic and based on nature; cancel merit, virtue, and the incentive to work. However, multiply the institutional disorder, weakens property rights, cooperation, genuine social solidarity and fair competition, but encourages economic parasitism, fosters resentment, crime, envy and social and racial conflict, and therefore hinders longterm the economic growth. When nature fails to provide with sufficient resources to please the various social demands, the political dispute turns violent and may even lead to revolutions and popular uprisings. 13

Furthermore, the Venezuelan egalitarianism is a fertile ground to homogenize the public discourse and thus flatten society. Expressing a critical view about the national myths in public creates surprise, symbolic rejection of the detractor and even figurative exclusion from the national community. It is unthinkable that a Venezuelan historian may question the epic grandeur of Independence and the role of Bolivar in a direct and open way or for that matter the ideology of mestizaje. That is the equivalent of a sacrilege. Venezuela's history taught in the levels of primary, intermediate and superior school are confounded with the biography of Simón Bolivar and is based on a chauvinistic rhetoric inspired on the War of Independence. In consequence, the Bolivarian revolution is not an unusual event in Venezuelan history, is the partial return to old times, is rooted in history, its background is in the old militaristic and charismatic caudillo tradition, revolutions, popular revolts and uprisings of the nineteenth and early decades of the twentieth century. It is the reoccurrence of the deep-rooted struggle between pardos and white and not a new social inclusive socialist experiment of the twentieth century or the ideological expression of Bolivar’s cult10. These are merely ideological disguises use by the new power elite to legitimize their pretenses and political control. However, the Bolivarian revolution is not a straightforward replica of the nineteenth century Venezuela’s social movements. It is more than that, is the old Venezuelan political traditions intermingled with the economic arrangements of the Petrostate. Thus it is difficult to describe the political form in Venezuela; there are many labels that could be used. Plebiscitary dictatorship? Tyranny of the majority? Patrimonial autocracy? or Participatory democracy? And all of them contain some effective arguments to explain it, so the political dynamics Venezuela is an extraordinary puzzle. However, in our opinion, the political and economic arrangement is similar, with certain local variants, to the one Jeffrey Winter

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As well explains Roberto Lopez Sanchez in “El protagonismo popular en la historia de Venezuela” (The popular role in the history of Venezuela) Department of Human Sciences, Faculty of Sciences. University of Zulia. Simón Bolivar would be a bitter enemy of Chavez because he would represent the much feared by the actual government of the pardocracia.

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describes in his book “Oligarchy” as Sultanistic Oligarchy

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, although we will treat

this topic briefly in the section dedicated on the economy in the twentieth century. Exceptional were the forty years of Liberal Democracy, started in 1959, shortly after the brief radical cycle of the democratic triennium from 1945 to 1948 that with all its limits and eventually debacle represented a historical parenthesis in the Caribbean country. A cohort of civilian politicians from diverse social backgrounds, known as the generation of 28

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sought to build a democratic political system of

western nature, based on legality and popular legitimacy and anchored in a broad political consensus among social actors in order to introduce basic rules of the game and an impersonal institutional architecture. The fundamental idea was to get away once and for all from the personalistic rule that predominated in Venezuela since the foundation of the Republic in 1830. It is no coincidence that the constitution promulgated in 1960 was the longest in force in the political history of Venezuela. Perhaps, with the advantage of the time gone, the Venezuelan democratic experiment had also a marked inclusiveness character not only in the social field, but also in the racial arena. Liberal democracy in Venezuela followed some sociopolitical patterns of the old yellow liberalism (“Liberalismo Amarillo”, is a denomination for a period of the Venezuelan history elapsing from 1870 and 1899). The idea of progress without socio-ethnic barriers was an essential part of the scheme implemented, with fluctuations, and not without contradictions, in the essay of modernization of the country during the period 1870-1888. Like the liberal democracy in the twentieth century, the “yellow liberalism” concluded its days in a deep economic, political and institutional crisis, been finally ousted by the personal rule of the delirious General Cipriano Castro. The words of Don Romulo Betancourt: “The people in abstract are a reality that demagogues use and abuse”. In the modern societies, the people are organized in

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. See Jeffrey Winter Work: Oligarchy, especially chapter 4. La generación del 28 refers to a student’s movement oppose to the regime of de Juan Vicente Gómez. From that generation emerge Rómulo Betancourt, Jovito Villalba, Andrés Eloy Blanco, Raúl Leoni, José Pio Tamayo etc. Betancourt y Leoni were the first two democratic Presidents of Venezuela after the fall of Pérez Jiménez I 1958. N del Autor 12

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political parties, syndical unions, organized economic groups, trade unions”13, in his historical time, illuminated the idea of national community and politics with a capital P, which guided democracy at its best. These ideas contrast with the concept used today by those in power in Venezuela. José Roberto Duque, an opinion journalist and historian linked to the Bolivarian revolution, defines impeccably what the concept on people that guides today politics: "If you stick to the definition of “people” as a poor, exploited, excluded or segregated human being, the first thing it must be understood, is that by 1810, “the people” was about 90% of the population. There were included the mines and plantations slaves, the servitude, the storekeepers and the small traders. The latter were mostly from the Canary Island (“canarios”), the firsts were blacks and mestizos. They weren´t all Venezuelans, but there was a condition or characteristic that brought them together in a same social group: the deep contempt for them by the owners of the country (white creoles, mantuanos, and peninsular Spaniard) because of their origin or status… Those human beings (storekeepers, canaries, slaves) united by misery, slavery and hated by the powerful were separated shortly after and torn by a trick that still works: proselytism, demagoguery, external problems…"14 This notion of “class , race and people” superimposed , because eventually the “peripheral whites” ( canarios) for various reasons joined the flags of the reaction, is not very original and reflects the endemic confrontation for wealth and prestige among mestizos and whites that agitates the social history of Venezuela since the colonial times and still is at the core of political and social polarization triggered by the Bolivarian revolution. We cannot deny that these socio-ethnic divisions have a high degree of historical true in Venezuela and Latin America. The wide disparity in income distribution in Latin America has deep historical roots and spreads both along the social class structure as in the racial domain. What is striking is that an important group of those who now wield such ideas are themselves the product of social policies of the liberal democracy. They now seem to ignore and refute, against the 13

Quote taken from “Pensar, Plantar, Curar la Democracia”, by Rómulo Betancourt Selection of papers. Publications not for sale by Fundación Rómulo Betancourt 14 Taken from the Bicentennial special insert published in the Journal Ciudad CSS, July 5th, 2011.

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abundant historical evidence, that the social policies of the liberal democracy had notable successes, at least between 1960 and 1978, contributing to promote a high level of social mobility in society, regardless of the color of the skin or the socioeconomic status. The President and his own family are the best examples of democratic social engineering. The illusion of natural wealth is also a central component of national identity and it has a prominent place in the mythology pantheon15. Of course, in that pantheon of national myths, the place of honor is reserved for to life and work of Simon Bolivar. As an example, when the President of Venezuela said that his fate and the one of the Bolivarian Revolution is to save the world from the capitalism or to free the peoples of Latin America, he is spontaneous and his words are not necessarily part of a manipulative speech behind which shelter unmentionable goals. Simply it is the result of culture, mentality, education and information that prevails in the Venezuelan society and therefore expresses a particularly view of themselves and of the world, product of a kind of magical thinking that prevails but still does not dominates in Venezuela. The President, as many of his followers, really imagine that Venezuela has a predestined mission, is an exceptional country, immensely rich, the land of grace, the cradle of heroes with an historic mission of liberation, which began in the war of Independence and has not yet concluded.

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Following that logic the war of Independence is not yet over and the

presence of Bolivar is still leading the crusade for freedom. The result is a frozen history in the age of national heroes, before that the ignominious of foreign occupation by Spain, after that disappointment and fiasco. So history becomes a myth, a manipulative tool, but also an obstacle to real change, it is not just a field of study in the academic world. Bolivar manifestations are everywhere; his words are always todays catch words. The magical relationship between nature, wealth and society produces the incongruous view of prosperity that was polled by the Gallup group, although is in 15

See the Works of Ana Teresa Torres. La herencia de la Tribu y el mexicano Jorge Volpi. El insomnio de Bolívar. 16 The author of this work heard the President on TV, in a one of those “unexpected call” to the program “La Hojilla”, on the air at the public channel. The President expressed his annoyance that Venezuela had not been invited to join the G-20.

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the foreign political field where narcissism, mythomania and delusions of grandeur are best articulated. The foreign policy is flamboyant and bombastic, for a modest country such as Venezuela, with little or no actual geopolitical weight in the world, and with a capacity of influence the destiny of Latin America more illusory than real, in the long term. The spending in international aid of different kinds reaches 3 to 4 billion dollars a year, undermining the prospects of national economic growth and also causing bizarre situations, as the attempts to subsidize public ground transportation in one of the richest cities in the world, such as London, or to grant financial assistance to poor families in New York, subsidizing fuel for heating, while Venezuelan families have trouble to adequately get food supply. Of course, not everything is inclined favorably to the forces of the old chauvinistic and militaristic Venezuela; the democratic experiment, despite its ultimate failure, left deep social and educational prints in part of the population, regardless of its political inclination, skin color or social class. This left as a legacy a civil society essentially democratic and open, very aware of the limitations and real possibilities of the country. This is an historical cycle in full development, and we cannot predict or anticipated its end. .

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Review of Previous Studies In this section we are going to review the few works17

related with the

reconstruction of the Venezuela’s national accounts. To our knowledge there are only two studies that have tried with mixed results18. The first, is “Bases Cuantitativas de la Economia Venezolana” by Professor Asdrubal Baptista, a compendium of data on the Venezuelan economy; it has been published in three different editions, the last two by the Polar Foundation and “Tomos Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela 1800-1936” coordinated by Professor Tomas Enrique Batalla and published by the Central Bank of Venezuela. The work of Professor Baptista has been widely distributed and rightly praised, but we must emphasize that its scope is not related to the reconstruction of a historical national accounting framework. Instead the aim is to understand the role of oil revenues in the national accounts of Venezuela and the so-called “Theory of Oil Rentiers Capitalism”. The book was originally published in 1986, it has had numerous revisions and did not offer a unique series for the entire period 18302002 but rather two separate series one for 1830-1920

in

constant 1936

Bolivares, and the second for 1920-2002, expressed in current and 1984 Bolivares In fact, in different articles written by Professor Baptista,

which show graphs

referring to the development of the Venezuelan economy since 1830 to recent years, there are significant differences, but unfortunately they don’t include the original database

19

. Therefore, we were forced to assume the task of transforming

the proposed figures from the work “Quantitative Basis of the Venezuelan Economy “into a single series from 1830 to 2002.

. 17

Two studies have attempted to build long time series: Asdrubal Baptista: “ Bases Cuantitativas de la Economia Venezolana1830-2002” Polar Foundation and Tomás Enrique Batalla Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela 1830-1936, BCV. 18 There are some Works that include estimation of GDP for diverse period like Domingo Alberto Rangel: Capital y Desarrollo and Salazar Carrillo Oil and Development in Venezuela.. 19 This is the case of thr article published by Cendes volumen 22 numero 060 sept-diciembre del 2005, Capitalismo Rentístico Elementos Cuantitativos de la Economía Venezolana del profesor Baptista.

19

Of the many interesting data presented by Professor Baptista we were interested in a few, published in the latest edition of his work, covering the period from 1830 to 2002. These are: 1) GDP measured at 1936 prices from 1830 to 1920 2) GDP at current and constant prices of 1984, for the database covering the period 1920-2002. 3) The general index of prices, period 1830-1920, baseline 1913. 5) The GDP deflator baseline 1984 for 1920-2002. 6) The general index of prices, period 1830-2002, and finally 7) the population series. With these data we can reconstruct or rather construct, using simple techniques, a historical series of GDP and income per capita, covering the period 1830-2002 according to the data proposed in Bases Cuantitativas. The operations we perform to make the calculations are quite simple and require no further explanation, they only included the link of the general price index based 1913 and the GDP deflator base 1984, the transformation of constant prices to current prices for the period 1830-1936, the calculation of the gross domestic product, real income per capita in Bolivares of 1984 and in international dollars of 1990. The results of this calculation have a slight variation with the original data from Baptista´s, for the period 1920-2002, resulting from procedure of joining various baselines. We present data and a brief discussion of it. : Table 1 DEFLACTOR

GDP prices

Per capita

Per Capita

100=1984

Millions BS 1984

BS of 1984

Dollars 1990

75,53

8,84

854,84

971,34

292,01

90,98 92,09

8,81 9,06

1.032,26 1.016,13

1.153,28 1.116,93

346,71 335,78

924.141

95,95

9,44

1.016,13

1.099,54

330,55

938.249 952.089

104,45 117,59

9,96 10,72

1.048,39 1.096,77

1.117,39 1.151,97

335,91 346,31

1836

965.673

151,38

9,98

1.516,13

1.570,02

471,99

1837

979.017

138,83

9,36

1.483,87

1.515,67

455,65

1838

992.136

147,53

10,28

1.435,48

1.446,86

434,96

1839

1.005.043

178,67

10,45

1.709,68

1.701,10

511,39

POP

GDP Current Millions Bs

1830

880.059

1831 1832

895.060 909.750

1833 1834 1835

Years

20

1840 1841

1.017.753 1.030.281

174,97 192,92

10,33 9,72

1.693,55 1.983,87

1.664,01 1.925,56

500,24 578,87

1842

1.042.640

201,50

9,32

2.161,29

2.072,90

623,17

1843 1844

1.054.845 1.066.911

154,45 167,89

8,71 8,53

1.774,19 1.967,74

1.681,95 1.844,34

505,64 554,45

1845

1.078.852

190,37

9,15

2.080,65

1.928,57

579,78

1846 1847

1.090.682 1.102.417

205,22 153,79

9,36 8,91

2.193,55 1.725,81

2.011,17 1.565,48

604,61 470,62

1848

1.114.069

168,91

9,11

1.854,84

1.664,92

500,52

1849 1850

1.125.654 1.137.185

161,63 192,28

8,87 8,34

1.822,58 2.306,45

1.619,13 2.028,21

486,75 609,73

1851

1.148.678

209,93

8,98

2.338,71

2.036,00

612,07

1852 1853

1.160.147 1.171.606

173,52 234,86

9,12 9,97

1.903,23 2.354,84

1.640,50 2.009,92

493,18 604,23

1854

1.183.070

247,73

10,04

2.467,74

2.085,88

627,07

1855

1.194.552

281,20

10,26

2.741,94

2.295,37

690,04

1856

1.206.068

257,69

10,58

2.435,48

2.019,36

607,07

1857 1858

1.217.632 1.229.257

235,89 277,01

11,08 10,47

2.129,03 2.645,16

1.748,50 2.151,84

525,64 646,90

1859

1.240.960

216,82

10,75

2.016,13

1.624,65

488,41

1860 1861

1.252.753 1.264.651

239,90 280,16

10,62 10,16

2.258,06 2.758,06

1.802,48 2.180,89

541,87 655,63

1862

1.276.669

235,89

10,02

2.354,84

1.844,52

554,51

1863 1864

1.288.822 1.301.123

235,49 311,86

9,87 12,98

2.387,10 2.403,23

1.852,15 1.847,04

556,80 555,27

1865

1.313.586

317,84

11,52

2.758,06

2.099,65

631,21

1866 1867

1.326.277 1.339.060

244,81 234,54

10,26 10,85

2.387,10 2.161,29

1.799,85 1.614,04

541,08 485,22

1868

1.352.099

210,46

10,87

1.935,48

1.431,47

430,33

1869 1870

1.365.359 1.378.853

218,59 256,55

10,04 11,36

2.177,42 2.258,06

1.594,76 1.637,64

479,42 492,32

1871

1.392.587

257,58

12,88

2.000,00

1.436,18

431,75

1872 1873

1.406.604 1.420.889

352,21 350,03

14,75 13,65

2.387,10 2.564,52

1.697,06 1.804,87

510,18 542,59

1874

1.435.467

449,38

13,93

3.225,81

2.247,22

675,57

1875 1876

1.450.352 1.465.558

419,14 395,86

13,61 11,42

3.080,65 3.467,74

2.124,07 2.366,16

638,55 711,33

1877

1.481.100

386,66

13,17

2.935,48

1.981,96

595,83

1878 1879

1.496.992 1.513.249

320,19 286,71

11,82 10,58

2.709,68 2.709,68

1.810,08 1.790,64

544,16 538,31

1880

1.529.884

332,56

9,87

3.370,97

2.203,41

662,40

1881 1882

1.546.912 1.564.349

399,17 489,64

10,06 10,40

3.967,74 4.709,68

2.564,94 3.010,63

771,09 905,07

21

1883 1884

1.582.207 1.600.502

417,82 423,76

10,32 10,03

4.048,39 4.225,81

2.558,70 2.640,30

769,21 793,74

1885

1.619.247

433,86

9,57

4.532,26

2.798,99

841,45

1886 1887

1.638.458 1.658.149

436,95 493,37

10,22 10,44

4.274,19 4.725,81

2.608,67 2.850,05

784,23 856,80

1888

1.678.334

511,89

10,44

4.903,23

2.921,48

878,27

1889 1890

1.699.027 1.720.243

530,26 619,64

11,14 12,20

4.758,06 5.080,65

2.800,46 2.953,45

841,89 887,88

1891

1.741.996

540,59

11,72

4.612,90

2.648,06

796,07

1892 1893

1.764.301 1.787.172

457,49 594,61

11,44 10,62

4.000,00 5.596,77

2.267,19 3.131,64

681,57 941,45

1894

1.810.623

515,65

10,66

4.838,71

2.672,40

803,39

1895 1896

1.834.669 1.859.325

609,78 479,17

10,90 9,58

5.596,77 5.000,00

3.050,56 2.689,15

917,08 808,43

1897

1.884.604

419,10

9,12

4.596,77

2.439,12

733,26

1898 1899

1.910.521 1.937.091

482,52 397,95

9,29 7,69

5.193,55 5.177,42

2.718,39 2.672,78

817,22 803,50

1900

1.964.327

447,73

8,95

5.000,00

2.545,40

765,21

1901 1902

1.992.245 2.020.858

430,91 427,26

8,76 7,98

4.919,35 5.354,84

2.469,25 2.649,78

742,32 796,59

1903

2.050.182

446,94

7,72

5.790,32

2.824,30

849,05

1904 1905

2.080.229 2.111.016

455,93 464,64

8,08 8,33

5.645,16 5.580,65

2.713,72 2.643,58

815,81 794,73

1906

2.142.556

507,17

9,74

5.209,68

2.431,52

730,98

1907 1908

2.174.863 2.207.953

490,23 483,81

9,41 8,69

5.209,68 5.564,52

2.395,40 2.520,21

720,12 757,64

1909

2.241.838

516,86

8,98

5.758,06

2.568,46

772,14

1910 1911

2.276.535 2.312.057

602,63 707,94

10,13 11,11

5.951,61 6.370,97

2.614,33 2.755,54

785,93 828,38

1912

2.348.418

766,20

11,64

6.580,65

2.802,16

842,40

1913 1914

2.385.635 2.423.718

823,57 669,97

10,84 10,08

7.596,77 6.645,16

3.184,38 2.741,72

957,30 824,23

1915

2.462.684

758,74

11,07

6.854,84

2.783,48

836,78

1916 1917

2.502.548 2.543.324

785,31 834,69

12,14 11,06

6.467,74 7.548,39

2.584,46 2.967,92

776,95 892,23

1918

2.585.025

1.076,63

14,39

7.483,87

2.895,09

870,34

1919 1920

2.627.667 2.671.264

1.509,39 1.200,00

21,56 16,50

7.000,00 7.272,73

2.663,96 2.722,58

800,85 818,48

1921

2.715.830

1.029,00

13,90

7.402,88

2.725,83

819,45

1922 1923

2.761.379 2.807.926

1.016,00 1.139,00

13,00 12,30

7.815,38 9.260,16

2.830,25 3.297,87

850,84 991,42

1924

2.855.486

1.339,00

11,70

11.444,44

4.007,88

1.204,87

1925

2.904.073

1.671,00

10,90

15.330,28

5.278,89

1.586,97

22

1926 1927

2.953.700 3.004.384

2.077,00 2.000,00

10,60 9,00

19.594,34 22.222,22

6.633,83 7.396,60

1.994,29 2.223,60

1928

3.056.137

2.119,00

7,80

27.166,67

8.889,22

2.672,32

1929 1930

3.108.975 3.162.911

2.505,00 2.492,00

8,00 8,10

31.312,50 30.765,43

10.071,65 9.726,94

3.027,79 2.924,16

1931

3.217.960

1.841,00

7,00

26.300,00

8.172,88

2.456,97

1932 1933

3.274.138 3.331.457

1.974,00 1.743,00

7,90 6,40

24.987,34 27.234,38

7.631,73 8.174,91

2.294,29 2.457,58

1934

3.389.932

1.802,00

5,90

30.542,37

9.009,73

2.708,55

1935 1936

3.449.578 3.540.095

1.972,00 2.158,00

6,00 6,20

32.866,67 34.806,45

9.527,74 9.832,07

2.864,28 2.955,77

1937

3.591.583

2.403,00

5,60

42.910,71

11.947,58

3.591,74

1938 1939

3.646.945 3.706.567

2.613,00 2.694,00

5,60 5,20

46.660,71 51.807,69

12.794,47 13.977,27

3.846,34 4.201,92

1940

3.773.939

2.699,00

5,90

45.745,76

12.121,49

3.644,02

1941 1942

3.844.313 3.916.233

2.742,00 2.572,00

5,20 6,30

52.730,77 40.825,40

13.716,57 10.424,66

4.123,54 3.133,91

1943

3.995.661

2.809,00

6,60

42.560,61

10.651,71

3.202,17

1944 1945

4.084.812 4.192.101

3.585,00 4.343,00

5,90 6,10

60.762,71 71.196,72

14.875,28 16.983,54

4.471,88 5.105,68

1946

4.314.916

5.837,00

6,80

85.838,24

19.893,37

5.980,45

1947 1948

4.454.141 4.635.305

8.367,00 11.028,00

8,30 9,80

100.807,23 112.530,61

22.632,25 24.276,85

6.803,82 7.298,23

1949

4.836.925

11.503,00

9,90

116.191,92

24.021,86

7.221,57

1950 1951

5.034.838 5.231.971

11.689,00 12.894,00

9,90 9,10

118.070,71 141.692,31

23.450,75 27.082,01

7.049,88 8.141,53

1952

5.429.142

14.179,00

9,60

147.697,92

27.204,65

8.178,40

1953 1954

5.649.949 5.895.063

15.068,00 16.726,00

10,20 10,30

147.725,49 162.388,35

26.146,34 27.546,50

7.860,24 8.281,17

1955

6.155.951

18.347,00

10,40

176.413,46

28.657,39

8.615,13

1956 1957

6.423.021 6.688.886

20.494,00 24.827,00

10,30 11,10

198.970,87 223.666,67

30.977,77 33.438,55

9.312,69 10.052,46

1958

6.947.238

25.734,00

11,30

227.734,51

32.780,58

9.854,66

1959 1960

7.212.780 7.496.400

26.444,00 26.006,00

11,10 11,30

238.234,23 230.141,59

33.029,46 30.700,28

9.929,48 9.229,27

1961

7.788.304

26.381,00

11,80

223.567,80

28.705,58

8.629,62

1962 1963

8.084.642 8.381.843

28.019,00 32.035,00

12,70 12,90

220.622,05 248.333,33

27.289,03 29.627,53

8.203,76 8.906,78

1964

8.687.983

36.504,00

13,00

280.800,00

32.320,51

9.716,35

1965 1966

9.004.249 9.325.019

40.597,00 42.228,00

13,40 13,80

302.962,69 306.000,00

33.646,64 32.814,95

10.115,02 9.864,99

1967

9.661.844

44.946,00

13,90

323.352,52

33.466,96

10.061,00

1968

10.002.336

55.401,00

15,90

348.433,96

34.835,26

10.472,35

23

1969 1970

10.333.670 10.664.157

57.543,00 63.813,00

16,00 16,80

359.643,75 379.839,29

34.803,10 35.618,31

10.462,68 10.707,76

1971

10.996.620

70.267,00

18,30

383.972,68

34.917,34

10.497,02

1972 1973

11.342.076 11.695.689

75.951,00 90.475,00

19,80 22,00

383.590,91 411.250,00

33.820,17 35.162,53

10.167,19 10.570,74

1974

12.070.817

132.398,00

32,00

413.743,75

34.276,37

10.304,33

1975 1976

12.484.738 12.903.659

145.002,00 169.191,00

34,60 37,00

419.080,92 457.272,97

33.567,46 35.437,47

10.091,22 10.653,39

1977

13.314.878

196.286,00

40,60

483.463,05

36.309,99

10.915,69

1978 1979

13.762.122 14.233.092

214.893,00 255.198,00

43,90 52,20

489.505,69 488.885,06

35.569,06 34.348,48

10.692,95 10.326,01

1980

14.711.214

307.653,00

65,90

466.848,25

31.734,18

9.540,09

1981 1982

15.208.329 15.670.879

341.105,00 347.655,00

74,60 77,20

457.245,31 450.330,31

30.065,45 28.736,76

9.038,43 8.638,99

1983

16.099.393

348.271,00

82,50

422.146,67

26.221,28

7.882,77

1984 1985

16.525.234 16.940.715

407.290,00 450.824,00

100,00 109,20

407.290,00 412.842,49

24.646,55 24.369,84

7.409,37 7.326,18

1986

17.359.767

494.155,00

112,60

438.858,79

25.280,22

7.599,87

1987 1988

17.789.014 18.225.100

681.858,00 878.369,00

148,60 180,30

458.854,64 487.170,83

25.794,27 26.730,76

7.754,40 8.035,94

1989

18.661.841

1.512.025,00

335,40

450.812,46

24.156,91

7.262,17

1990 1991

19.101.503 19.550.984

2.307.708,00 3.076.152,00

481,00 584,00

479.772,97 526.738,36

25.117,03 26.941,78

7.550,81 8.099,37

1992

20.004.011

4.128.685,00

737,40

559.897,61

27.989,27

8.414,27

1993 1994

20.451.879 20.904.101

5.448.733,00 8.669.397,00

976,10 1.590,50

558.214,63 545.073,69

27.294,05 26.074,96

8.205,27 7.838,79

1995

21.362.034

13.680.090,00

2.414,30

566.627,59

26.524,98

7.974,07

1996 1997

21.824.755 22.276.381

29.431.862,00 43.338.598,00

5.204,50 7.204,70

565.507,96 601.532,31

25.911,31 27.003,14

7.789,59 8.117,82

1998

22.726.765

52.473.951,00

8.714,90

602.117,65

26.493,77

7.964,69

1999 2000

23.193.040 23.658.762

62.630.294,00 82.516.350,00

11.067,60 14.124,80

565.888,67 584.194,82

24.399,07 24.692,54

7.334,97 7.423,19

2001

24.124.274

91.403.689,00

15.221,60

600.486,74

24.891,39

7.482,97

2002

24.589.822

110.874.767,00

20.263,10

547.175,74

22.252,12

6.689,54

Sources: Bases Cuantitativas de la Economía Venezolana 1830-2002 y cálculos propios

24

Graph 1 GDP per capita 1830-2002 BS of 1984

40.000,00 35.000,00 30.000,00 25.000,00 20.000,00 15.000,00 10.000,00 5.000,00

1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0,00

Sources: Grafico 1 basado en datos de Baptista: Bases Cuantitativas Table 2 GDP 1920-2002 prices 1984. Años 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938

Columna1 7.272,73 7.402,88 7.815,38 9.260,16 11.444,44 15.330,28 19.594,34 22.222,22 27.166,67 31.312,50 30.765,43 26.300,00 24.987,34 27.234,38 30.542,37 32.866,67 34.806,45 42.910,71 46.660,71

Columna2 7.261,00 7.444,00 7.849,00 9.272,00 11.488,00 15.347,00 19.642,00 22.433,00 27.585,00 31.732,00 31.170,00 26.579,00 25.152,00 27.893,00 30.842,00 33.289,00 35.308,00 42.992,00 47.338,00

25

1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

51.807,69 45.745,76 52.730,77 40.825,40 42.560,61 60.762,71 71.196,72 85.838,24 100.807,23 112.530,61 116.191,92 118.070,71 141.692,31 147.697,92 147.725,49 162.388,35 176.413,46 198.970,87 223.666,67 227.734,51 238.234,23 230.141,59 223.567,80 220.622,05 248.333,33 280.800,00 302.962,69 306.000,00 323.352,52 348.433,96 359.643,75 379.839,29 383.972,68 383.590,91 411.250,00 413.743,75 419.080,92 457.272,97 483.463,05 489.505,69 488.885,06 466.848,25 457.245,31

52.120,00 46.611,00 53.154,00 41.766,00 43.195,00 61.386,00 72.143,00 86.848,00 101.784,00 113.101,00 116.978,00 119.559,00 142.073,00 148.167,00 149.081,00 162.550,00 177.817,00 200.137,00 224.841,00 227.699,00 239.699,00 231.316,00 223.129,00 220.892,00 247.860,00 280.491,00 303.110,00 305.024,00 321.726,00 347.201,00 357.862,00 379.239,00 382.535,00 383.252,00 410.121,00 413.606,00 418.898,00 457.170,00 483.280,00 489.228,00 488.901,00 466.892,00 457.412,00

26

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

450.330,31 422.146,67 407.290,00 412.842,49 438.858,79 458.854,64 487.170,83 450.812,46 479.772,97 526.738,36 559.897,61 558.214,63 545.073,69 566.627,59 565.507,96 601.532,31 602.117,65 565.888,67 584.194,82 600.486,74 547.175,74

450.086,00 422.366,00 407.290,00 412.810,00 439.005,00 458.990,00 487.139,00 450.765,00 479.755,00 526.712,00 559.927,00 558.202,00 545.087,00 566.627,00 565.506,00 601.534,00 602.119,00 565.888,00 584.195,00 600.488,00 547.175,00

Fuentes: The data in column 1 was elaborated using price indexes; deflator and current prices from Baptista work, column 2 are Baptista’s presented in table I-3 pag. 58-69.

27

Descriptive statistics for Table 2

Columna1

Columna2

Media Error típico Mediana Moda Desviación estándar Varianza de la muestra Curtosis Coeficiente de asimetría Rango Mínimo Máximo Suma Cuenta Mayor (1) Menor(1) Nivel de confianza (95,0%)

264211,7873 22449,3714 230141,5929 #N/D 204523,5070 41829864934,9622 -1,5067 0,1677 594844,9218 7272,7273 602117,6491 21929578,3481 83,0000 602117,6491 7272,7273 44658,9511

Media Error típico Mediana Moda Desviación estándar Varianza de la muestra Curtosis Coeficiente de asimetría Rango Mínimo Máximo Suma Cuenta Mayor (1) Menor(1) Nivel de confianza (95,0%)

264363,0843 22420,5575 231316,0000 #N/D 204261,0003 41722556228,3465 -1,5033 0,1684 594858,0000 7261,0000 602119,0000 21942136,0000 83,0000 602119,0000 7261,0000 44601,63117

Correlación datos del Cuadro 2 Columna 1 Columna 2

Columna 1 1 0,999996088

Columna 2 1

28

Graph 2 GDP prices 1984 from 1920 to 2002

700.000,00 600.000,00 500.000,00 400.000,00

calculos GDC

300.000,00

Baptista

200.000,00 100.000,00

1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

0,00

Fuentes GDC is the estimation based on Bases Cuantitativas. Baptista refers to the data in table I-3 of Baptista work.

The data we have offered above summarize with clarity the estimate Venezuela´s GDP and its evolution according to data from the work of Baptista. As shown in Tables 1 and 2 and in Figures 1 and 2 and in the descriptive analysis of the statistics,

the calculations

we made for the period 1830-2002, using the

information from the book "Bases Cuantitativas" did not change the trends in the evolution of the Venezuela´s economy proposed by Professor Baptista. We believe that the estimates values of Professor Baptista, from 1830 to 195758, have the trouble of being grounded on the behavior of the external sector, primarily in the performance of exports. According to our analysis the series fluctuates according to the fluctuation of exports and their price index. This makes the product an echo of the oscillation of exports and not the economy as a whole which includes other components. In this sense, as explained in the methodology section, for the Venezuelan case, giving the very pronounced statistical gaps in indexes of production of goods and services, we consider that the population’s consumption is the most effective variable to use for a consistent reconstruction of the national accounts and not the movements of exports. In the series we have 29

developed, based on the study by Professor Baptista, for example, Venezuelan real income between 1830 and 1900 grew 2.62 times, a considerable amount, that would put Venezuela among the countries with higher economic growth in the western hemisphere in the post-independence period, as an example the real income of the United States in the same period grew 3.24 times and Chile, one of the most successful Latin American economies of the nineteenth century, along with Argentina, achieved a growth of the real income of 3.3 times between 1830 1900. In fact the correlation coefficient between exports and GDP per capita in the Baptista´s series for the period 1830-1900 is 0.8779, showing a high relationship; in the case of series we propose is 0.655, a moderate to marked relationship, an accurate association, in our opinion, for the real behavior of the Venezuelan economy during that period . As discussed below, the growth of the Venezuela´s GDP per capita in this period was rather close to zero if not slightly negative. In our opinion, the work of Professor Baptista underestimates the size of Venezuela's GDP, because it is based on the fluctuations of foreign trade and overestimates the growth rate for the nineteenth century. However, for the twentieth century, the data overestimate the flow of aggregate wealth generated by the Venezuelan economy. We believe that real income and domestic product was lower, although its growth rate is very close to what can be drawn from the data of Professor Baptista. However, we do not rule out, and is a perfectly valid possibility, that considering the oil sector or in general mining resources and its international rent as a unique form of economy structure, its measurement also should has a specific character, not necessarily subject to standardized rules applicable to

conventional economic

contexts. In this case, is likely that the size of countries' GDP in an oil country and real income per capita are greater than those reflected in national accounting dominated by international convention20. The problem is how to measure this particularity in an acceptable, accepted and objective way.

20

Michael Tanzer :Towards Correctly Measuring the Role of the Oil Sector in Economic Growth, December 16th 2009 http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5011

30

Finally, we present an interesting table and a graphic that compare the estimation made by Professor Hector Valecillos Toro in his important book “Crecimiento Económico, Mercado del Trabajo y Pobreza en Venezuela. La experiencia venezolana del siglo XX “ published in 2007, with the one of Professor Baptista and ours, for the period 1936-1959. In the table it can be observe the various estimation; columns 1 is from Valecillos, column 2 is a calculation done by the author's

and based on data both from population and GDP taken from

Professor Valecillos. The Columns 3 and 4 are ours and columns 5 and 6 correspond to the estimates made using Professor Baptista data, including his series of population and product. Columns 1, 3, 5 are the GDP data, while columns 2, 4, 6 represent real income per inhabitant. In the accompanying graph (n 3) can be seen that there is a significant degree of overlap between our estimates and those of Professor Valecillos; this is not in the case of data from Baptista from which it differ abundantly. Table 3 años 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956

GDP and income per capita 1936-1959 Bolivares prices 1984 Columna 1 26.203 27.592 30.682 32.155 34.631 34.700 33.188 32.505 36.763 44.814 51.312 55.674 60.517 69.716 77.106 86.248 92.527 98.245 107.696 117.249 129.631

Columna2 7.562 7.775 8.436 8.639 9.085 8.859 8.219 7.810 8.575 10.141 11.265 11.848 12.483 13.926 14.905 16.121 16.687 17.080 18.100 19.018 20.245

Columna 3 24.061 24.664 27.982 30.326 32.787 32.677 29.254 33.399 37.305 46.863 55.378 55.650 68.080 70.945 78.885 88.089 94.505 100.349 110.013 119.781 132.432

Columna 4 7.152 7.125 7.863 8.294 8.735 8.486 7.334 8.093 8.747 10.643 12.194 11.893 14.132 14.316 15.487 16.555 17.034 17.376 18.328 19.228 20.376

Columna 5 35.308 42.992 47.338 52.120 46.611 53.154 41.766 43.195 61.386 72.143 86.848 101.784 113.101 116.978 119.559 142.073 148.167 149.081 162.550 177.817 200.137

Columna 6 9.832 11.948 12.794 13.977 12.121 13.717 10.425 10.652 14.875 16.984 19.893 22.632 24.277 24.022 23.451 27.082 27.205 26.146 27.546 28.657 30.978

31

1957 1958 1959

144.682 146.592 158.114

21.698 21.117 21.896

147.809 149.774 161.557

21.835 21.277 22.104

224.841 227.699 239.699

33.439 32.781 33.029

Sources : Calculos Propios, Baptista Bases Cuantitativas y Valecillos El Mercado del Trabajo en Venezuela

Grafico 3

GDP per capita Bolivares 1984 1936-1959 40.000 35.000 30.000 25.000 Valecillos

20.000

GDC Baptista

15.000 10.000 5.000

1959

1958

1957

1956

1955

1954

1953

1952

1951

1950

1949

1948

1947

1946

1945

1944

1943

1942

1941

1940

1939

1938

1937

1936

0

Sources: Cálculos Propios y datos de Baptista y Valecillos

We believe that the information presented is self-explanatory and need not delve into further details. However, it is important to clarify that the data bases from the

32

book, Bases Cuantitativas are of great relevance and we will use them to explain the behavior of Venezuelan economy in the twentieth century. The second study we will comment is one led by Professor Tomás Enrique Batalla“Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela 1800-1936”” published by the Central Bank of Venezuela. This is a massive work of more than two thousand pages in 6 volumes with large statistical appendices and a misprint for the period 1873-1914. We do not claim to scrutinize all the work but rather discuss the pros and cons of it succinctly. From the theoretical methodology viewpoint this work has an initial orientation we consider appropriate. It attempts to calculate the GDP based on the consumption of the population (expense), using for this purpose the well-known considerations made in 1839 by Agustín Codazzi on consumption in Venezuela, to which him gradually added other economic aggregates to obtain an estimate GDP at current prices for the period 1800-1935. Unfortunately the method is extremely confusing, and also the findings of the geographer Agustin Codazzi about Venezuela´s consumption in 1839 are not necessarily correct. Subsequently, and given the errors appearing in the volume dedicated to the period 1874-1914, the author made changes in the methodology (which are not explained) and calculated the consumption based on a fixed percentage of the average minimum wage in public administration. In short, disorder stands out in the criteria used, overriding any goal of the publication, which was the reconstruction of Venezuelan National Accounts for the period 1800-1935. On the other hand, he didn’t build a chained price index for the complete period, and this unable us to try to deflate the current prices. Also, the author constructed partial index, which otherwise are wrongly calculated. The usefulness of the work lies rather in the statistics of prices of various food products, export products, manufacturing, import, etc. Most of them, as we verified, were obtained from newspapers, brochures and flyers from the nineteenth century, which is the most important source to track the prices in that century. The second advantage is the breakdown by items of imports and exports over the analyzed period, based on primary sources, and finally a well-balanced presentation and discussion of the economic, fiscal and legal issues under the various governments. 33

Below, we are presenting the series of GDP at current prices proposed in the “Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela” (Table 4) and in graph n-3, we are showing the data in constant terms for the period 1831-1935, deflated with an index initially proposed by us in a previous working paper. As can be inferred from graph, the present work is no useful to understand the evolution of Venezuelan national accounts history, but is very helpful for understanding the behavior of prices, of public sector wages and of exports and imports. Table 4: Years

Bolívares

Bolívares

1800

139.181.590

1831

262.987.680

1862

492.731.400

1893

1.608.511.485

1801

146.078.530

1832

273.538.490

1863

494.258.520

1894

1.620.687.620

1802

169.710.565

1833

281.709.075

1864

496.287.910

1895

1.616.941.385

1803

150.454.080

1834

290.150.810

1865

502.059.585

1896

1.634.241.189

1804

153.093.115

1835

302.629.410

1866

503.941.815

1897

1.654.181.822

1805

155.810.605

1836

307.747.670

1867

504.797.100

1898

1.659.315.149

1806

158.733.560

1837

321.882.890

1868

504.680.640

1899

1.689.865.149

1807

181.927.210

1838

319.969.545

1869

508.281.980

1900

1.689.991.946

1808

159.689.320

1839

329.553.105

1870

509.734.600

1901

1.753.706.520

1809

151.056.350

1840

343.159.275

1871

513.960.585

1902

1.812.091.431

1810

152.432.060

1841

353.270.425

1872

517.686.225

1903

1.854.067.481

1811

126.240.255

1842

359.278.060

1873

521.066.305

1904

1.927.243.976

1812

123.957.780

1843

364.478.335

1874

545.366.100

1905

1.984.201.881

1813

127.373.055

1844

368.450.550

1875

595.278.296

1906

1.925.670.557

1814

140.095.605

1845

376.830.595

1876

681.890.228

1907

1.871.518.742

1815

117.791.910

1846

387.914.160

1877

739.704.560

1908

1.817.415.071

1816

138.044.200

1847

398.958.115

1878

809.283.447

1909

1.760.118.501

1817

143.485.880

1848

397.551.545

1879

871.226.347

1910

1.709.058.593

1818

131.527.400

1849

399.411.450

1880

957.341.428

1911

1.774.054.085

1819

122.973.510

1850

416.441.700

1881

1.047.619.282

1912

1.837.491.672

1820

122.301.060

1851

430.487.410

1882

1.154.933.654

1913

1.894.707.437

1821

129.273.500

1852

440.470.900

1883

1.272.008.051

1914

1.950.385.652

1822

130.958.555

1853

442.549.310

1884

1.371.602.338

1915

2.080.701.939

1823

138.343.685

1854

447.826.235

1885

1.485.842.283

1916

2.109.073.418

1824

130.338.885

1855

453.286.935

1886

1.740.889.931

1917

2.120.783.168

1825

134.608.220

1856

457.067.220

1887

1.704.122.764

1918

2.091.265.247

1826

127.141.435

1857

465.980.000

1888

1.665.297.403

1919

2.162.871.134

1827

135.337.525

1858

470.219.045

1889

1.626.228.576

1920

2.196.928.599

1828

133.971.735

1859

477.667.915

1890

1.587.844.938

1921

2.160.298.086

1829

149.455.985

1860

482.079.130

1891

1.597.888.255

1922

2.313.606.166

1830

143.488.360

1861

485.682.895

1892

1.616.468.150

1923

2.400.611.645

1924

2.507.996.626

1925

2.653.583.008

1926

2.841.549.884

34

1927

2.867.391.205

1928

2.992.270.768

1929

3.012.263.701

1930

3.095.567.901

1931

3.064.944.465

1932

3.087.872.598

1933

3.021.104.757

1934

3.043.076.918

1935

3.024.392.449

Source: Carrillo Batalla Cuentas nacionales de Venezuela. Graph 3

GDP per Capita Bolivares prices 1984 from 1831 to1935 18.000,00 16.000,00 14.000,00 12.000,00 10.000,00 8.000,00 6.000,00 4.000,00 2.000,00 0,00 1831 1835 1839 1843 1847 1851 1855 1859 1863 1867 1871 1875 1879 1883 1887 1891 1895 1899 1903 1907 1911 1915 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935

Serie1

Sources: Carrillo Batalla Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela and deflator from De Corso To conclude this section is appropriate to make some reflections on the development of statistics, storage and disclosure of data in Venezuela and about the methodology of research and diffusion of Economic History. First, is obvious the absence of historical statistics produced and updated by the official institutions as the National Institute of Statistics and the Central Bank of Venezuela. The latter has limited to publish some good volumes of Statistics of Venezuela from 1950 to 1999 and Bank´s bulletins from 1941 until 1957, without investigating the behavior of the Venezuelan economy before that time. In summary, the statistics in Venezuela is squalid, opaque and lately also unreliable. This reality contrasts with 35

the rest of Latin America where the data processing has improved substantially. It is enough to visit the websites of the various statistics entities from countries like Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Uruguay and so on, to find dense digital libraries with historical series of economic aggregates, fiscal accounts, social and population statistics, some of which start at the Colonial or at early twentieth century. We should make clear that it was not always so; since the times of Guzmán Blanco in the nineteenth century with the creation of the National Bureau of Statistics of the Ministry of Development (Fomento), until the mid-eighties in the last century, the evolution of statistics in Venezuela were updated with the best Institutions .But today the lag of Venezuela is dramatic. We can use a couple of examples to make our point; the nearby Colombia produces regional or departmental accounts with series since 1990, and satellites accounts to four sectors: Culture, Environment, Tourism, and Social Security. In Venezuela are on project the creations of a system of regional accounts. Also a National Consumer Price Index began to be estimated, with great publicity as if it were a world record, in 2007. That is, since 1950 the Consumer Price Index produced by the Central Bank referred only to price changes for the Metropolitan Area of Caracas. Important and useful as this index was for measuring the movement of prices was in our opinion insufficient to measure the national reality. Regarding the study of the Economic History, the picture is bleak. The study of Venezuelan Economic History is excessively dominated by a mixture of the Marxist view and the dependency theory. We do not want to deny that these visions are thought-provoking and maybe appropriate for understanding the Latin American reality. Our critic points to the monothematic character, the a priori rejection of any method that does not meet the requirements of these visions and the marked lack of interest for the use of data, like if the growth or the developments are not realities objectively measurable. The New Economic History and the use of econometric techniques and/or statistics applied to economic history was not welcomed or widely accepted in Venezuelan academics, their techniques are virtually unknown to teachers and specialists in Venezuela. Also, Institutional Economic History had a limited development and it is only recently that some 36

studies have begun to use it as a reference. It is no coincidence that Venezuela, as an object of study, is absent from the interesting and innovative studies on the Economic History of Latin America made in the last two decades. This is the consequence of the absence of works made by Venezuelan researchers.

37

METHODOLOGY OF THE SERIES In general, we find difficulties to use a particular methodology, and during the process of collecting the data we had to deviate from our original purpose and starting to adapt gradually the methodological framework to the availability, reliability and employability of the data, so we had to flexible in the working scheme. It is worth highlighting that with the intention of facilitating the reading of the proposed series of GDP, all monetary values have been transformed into current and constant Bolivares and international dollars of 1990, in order to allow comparison with other series. Likewise, when required by the calculation, we made conversions of various types of measurement of volume, mass, weight, capacity and surface to the metric system. Since this work was first thought for a Venezuelan academic audience, we have made an effort to stick to simplicity and to maximum clarity in order to arouse interest Economic History. For the period from 1783 to 1829 we used data from foreign trade (Exports + Imports) regressing them on the relationship between GDP and foreign commerce between 1830 and 1870. We chose 1870 as the deadline, because from that moment begin

a sequences of changes in Venezuelan economy, as the

intensification of

the monoculture of coffee and investment in railways and in

public ornamental works in urban centers, the expansion of mining and various monetary reforms . That is, since 1870, the Guzman Blanco government with its emphasis on the progress and “civilization” initiates a new dynamic in Venezuela's economy. In contrast, the 1830-1870 period bears a closer match with the late colonial period and the years immediately following, particularly in the structure of foreign trade and also, coincidentally, ends with a civil war between 1859-1863 the Federal War-, which is similar in its intensity and consequences to the war of Independence and served as dividing mark for the beginning of a new national project, known in Venezuelan historiography as “the Guzmancismo” or the Yellow Liberal model. We want to clarify our dissatisfaction with the use of foreign trade as an instrumental variable to obtain an estimate of the GDP for the period 17831829. While we could build a basket of food consumption for that period; we did not 38

have enough information to develop a price index including at least the basic products of Venezuelan diet or more accurately, of the subjects of the Spanish Crown that inhabited what later would be Venezuela. Therefore, although the estimate that we propose has a solid foundation in the relationship established between GDP and international trade for the period 1830-1870, as mentioned, ultimately it has as a basis the foreign trade of the period 1783-1829 and therefore tends to oscillate with the movement of the external sector. In contrast, for the series from 1830 to 1935, we start from the simple fact that good series are available that are quite reliable and cover the period more complicated for the research as it was the reconstruction of the accounts for the nineteenth century. These series are: government spending and net export. Therefore, we have a good amount of information to get the GDP from the expenditure approach, and it is: GDP = Private Consumption + Private Investment + Public Spending + Exports - Imports. For the production approach21 there were some agricultural censuses and there is enough information about certain economic activities as exports of coffee, cocoa, hides, cattle, gold, and some services such as transportation of goods by train and other data more or less incomplete, both in volumes (quantities) and prices, thus opening the possibility of constructing a set of indices of volume or quantities produced, which in combination with a price index would produce the corresponding values. But we chose to discard this way because the important data gaps and because we could link in an exaggerated way the performance of GDP with the external sector volatilizing the series. However, we made an estimate for 1884 by branch of production, since for that year we had the minimum information necessary to infer the added value of production. For this purpose we use the information about the agricultural production published in the Statistical Yearbook of 1884 and the functional structure of the labor force, Census 1891. The results are presented in the statistical annex.

21

See Izard, especially the bibliography that indicates the source to initiate and overall research of data. Series. Estadistica de la Historia de Venezuela (1969)

39

For the income approach there is some information about rural and urban wages, but when we try to compare them we found significant inconsistencies in the amounts and wide gaps between rural and urban incomes, which are not found in other series in Latin American or European history. Otherwise the numbers were insufficient to build a solid series. There is adequate information on government wages and salaries, but in our opinion are not representative of the general level of incomes, being in average much higher than the rest of the occupation or jobs, and also the group of public employees represent no more than 2% or 3% of the employed population in the nineteenth century and therefore we discard it. On the other hand, the rural labor force, most of the employed population, received its payments or wages in mixed rations of food and/or cards to purchase products in the grocery store in the plantation and a high number of them worked depending on the agricultural cycle of production. This makes almost impossible to estimate adequately the number of those working permanently in plantations and Hatos. Anyway, we could infer from the many different data we analyzed the behavior of nominal and real wages. Both remained stable and did not grow beyond 0.6-0.8% annually between1830-1930. This means that in 1830 a rural laborer earning 1 Bs/day and working about 250 days/year, obtaining revenue of 250 Bs/year, in 1930 a laborer could earn a 550/600 Bs/year, or close to 1.50-1.60 Bs/day. It is worth adding here that the average inflation rate was very low for the period 18301949, 1.41% the general and 1.42% the food inflation, a minimum difference that virtually equal the two indexes, however it was much greater than the increase of wages and therefore the real wages remained generally depressed with the exception of the years 80 and 90 of the nineteenth century, when nominal and real wages rose sharply and then decline severely through late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Similarly, we initially explored the possibility of applying the proposed method by Professor Paolo Malanima

22

but it presupposes the prior existence of four sets

of information: population, wages (urban and rural), and price and urbanization 22

See the work of Professor Paolo Malanima, especially the following: Italian GDP 1300-1913 and Measuring the Italian Economy 1300-1861. Rivista di Storia Economica, December 2003. Also Lo Cascio and Malanima: GDP in Pre-Modern Economies to Revision of Estimates

40

rates, to undertake the calculation procedure starting from the demand per capita of agriculture products. The huge data gaps, already mentioned, made it unfeasible its application in the specific case of Venezuela. Finally we decide on to be guided by a simple but effective procedure used by Raymond Gold Smith

23

to rebuild the

GDP of the Roman Empire to which we add the Index of Inflation, covering the period 1830-1949. It was link with the GDP deflator for the period 1950 -2009 (which can be easily obtained in the website of the Central Bank of Venezuela) in order to obtain the product in 1984 prices24. Using the expenditure approach, based on the consumption of the population, has two advantages for the Venezuelan case. First, it lets us include subsistence agricultural production and this means a translation of the self- consumption-oriented product into monetary values .An important part of the population food consumption was satisfied through the family production in small plots of land (“conucos”), of cassava, plantain, onions, bananas, corn, beans and raising poultry, goats and pigs and were used to supplement or even as central part of the diet for people in dispersed rural areas. Even regularly there was a surplus that could be placed on the market. We are of the opinion that the economy of the conuco has been erroneously relegated to a secondary position25. In fact it represented a very consisting part of production and consumption of the population, with the implications this has for social reproduction. Therefore its importance was fundamental for the market supply of food. We want to underline that the chosen method emphasizes consumption and indirectly small-scale production aimed at satisfying local demand for agricultural goods and handicrafts. We believe that figures obtained in this way give us a much more extensive and effective view of the product volume. Second, we have a good knowledge of what Venezuelans consumed in that period both quantities and prices. Keep in mind that in a pre-modern agricultural economy the private 23

See Raymond W. Goldsmith An Estimate of The Size and Structure of The National Product Of The Early Roman Empire (1984). 24 We want to highlight that the official CPI from 1950 to 2008 was calculated based on the movement of prices in the metropolitan area of Caracas, it is only recently that the Central Bank has begun to calculate the inflation through a National Survey. Therefore, the GDP deflator, the ratio between current and constant data, which is an assessment of prices, was in our opinion, the best indicator of price behavior in Venezuela until the introduction of index of prices. 25 See Colin Clark and Haswell The Economics of Subsistence Agriculture St. Martin’s Press

41

consumption can represent between 80% to 90% of GDP26, mostly in food consumption and Venezuela maintained that structure, roughly, until the introduction of oil exploitation in the twenties of the last century, even so it had been built some rail lines or other mechanical devices typical of a modern economy. It is not our intention to minimize the importance of agro-export economy, essentially the export of coffee during the nineteenth century and part of twentieth; but we want to point out the fact that adjacent to this export economy there was a large production of agricultural goods oriented to domestic consumption. In the specific case of Venezuela, the calculation of private or households consumption is the most accurate method with which we can operate to make a reconstruction of national accounts. It is a simple but effective method that we consider could be successfully used in other Latin American countries that do not have long and reliable statistical series of agricultural goods´ production, manufactured goods and services or solid information of income as wages, salaries, interest, etc. We start by building several baskets of basic products that we use to calculate the private consumption by multiplying the quantities by its price, and obtained value by multiplying the result by population. The baskets elaborated took into account the consumption patterns of the Venezuelan population in the nineteenth century, especially of food27, however as we apply it, we took into consideration some modifications that pattern shows, as it was a reduction in consumption of maize per capita, in the second half of the nineteenth century and a sharp increase consumption of beans and brown sugar. However, in general terms the basic diet of the Venezuelan remained very stable throughout the nineteenth century and the first two or three decades of the twentieth century. Also, we included in the calculation some manufactured products and beverages, textiles, sandals, matches, kerosene, spirituous and beer.

26

According to Maddison around 1820 participation of private consumption in France was 84% and 88% in Great Britain. Maddison La economía Mundial 1820-1992 OCDE. 27 See the important but unfortunately little known work of Professor Jaime Torres Sánchez of the Andes University, on the diet in colonial and nineteenth century.

42

The average basket reached approximately a total weight of about 400 kilograms and the principal food were: 100 kg of platanos ( plantain), 80 kg of maize, 75 kg beans or grains, 54 kg of brown sugar ( papelon) and a other consumables like meat

28

, sugar, potatoes (consumed in the Andes), wheat

(consumed mainly in Caracas), butter, cheese, salt, cocoa and coffee. For drinks we use basically the most widespread, such as beer, which began to be consumed intensely with the installation in the country of breweries but especially aguardiente was the most popular drink along with the homemade guarapos alcohol made from sugar cane. For manufactured products we include about 20 kg of textile, as cotton, wool (used in the Andes and in many Sunday-dresses), sandals, shoes, soap, kerosene, candles, matches, etc. The basket represents what we define as the minimum consumption for an adult and about 60-80% of consumption of an infant; we increase its value by 50% to take into account the different levels of income of the population. We take this figure, moderate, because not only it was an extremely poor, almost impoverished the population, but also most of the owners of Hatos and Haciendas were not swimming in abundance as some militant historiography wants us to believe, rather these owners had a material life we could define as austere

29

. Likewise was the case with small traders and

storekeepers, artisans, pulperos etc. That was, if not the most poor and backward society in South America, probably one of the most depressed. Calculations of private investment represent the greatest challenge, because we have neither even a single year in the nineteenth century with sufficient information to derive values relatively consistent to extrapolate them into the series. Consequently, we proceeded to draw some very rough estimate, calculated on the behavior of private consumption and derived from yearly growth of the number of hectares under production for agriculture in general, and for coffee in particular, some market value, production costs and benefits per hectare of cultivated coffee and cocoa, and the volume of agricultural production, as appearing in various livestock and agricultural censuses, but especially we made 28

. See considerations of Professor Arcila Farias on meat consumption in Venezuela (2004). In the work “Vida en la Hacienda XVIII to XX (2010) by retired Professor J. Rafael Lovera he portrays in a detailed way the life in the Venezuelan countryside and its extreme simplicity even in the propertied class 29

43

use of new statistical data on imports of capital goods and intermediate good, which have been extremely useful to refine the calculation of private gross fixed investment. Also, from the seventh decade of the nineteenth century, we use the figures of foreign and domestic private investment in branches of production or services such as: railways, telephony, telegraphy, mining and oil industry from the second decade of twentieth century, contrasting them with the figures of public investment, on which there were relatively reliable data from 1870.

30

Also we

compare our estimates with observed patterns in historical series of other countries with agriculture economic structure31, adjusting our estimates where needed. In this sense,

we deduce the values

expressed in current bolivars and

32

percentages .The behavior of private investment fluctuates according to our estimates, about from 2% to 30% for the period 1830-1949. The highest figures were reached at the second, third and fourth decade of the twentieth century, while the upper half figures were reached at the seventh decade of the nineteenth century until the first decade of the twentieth century. We must emphasize that if we add the known figures of public investment in infrastructure, for example in 1935, with those from private investment calculated by us, the gross investment would reach about 9% of GDP in a time when they still felt the effects of the depression of 1929. The lack of public investment data for the first decades of the nineteenth century precluded us from making a more accurate and precise calculation. To construct the inflation index covering the period 1830-1949 we selected about 40 products, including food, beverages and manufactured, from local production or imported, giving greater weight (70%) to food and beverages

33

. We

developed two indexes, for the period 1830-1949: a General Price Index and a 30

See the Statistical Yearbooks of the Ministry of Development since 1877 with interruptions until 1944. And Coordinated by The Nikita Harwich Foreign investments in Venezuela Nineteenth Century Volumes 1 and 2 (1994). 31 See Carreras and Tafunell, Historical Statistics of Spain and the Digital Library of the National Institute of Geography and Statistics INEGI Mexico. 32 To get a reference, the amount of investment in the railway system reached 200 million Bs between1873 1915. The amount of oil investments exceeds $ 100 million between 1917-1929 33 We took as reference the First National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. Cordiplan 1964, where families in dispersed rural areas spent between 63 and 65 of its income on food.

44

Commodity Price Index of Food and Beverage. The sources used were mainly the Statistical yearbooks of the Ministry of Development (Fomento), especially after 1913, daily newspapers of the XIX century and the National Accounts Volumes coordinated by Tomás Enrique Batalla and published under the auspices of the Central Bank of Venezuela. We want to note, we found some mistakes in the calculations of both inflation rates and in some prices found in the Volumes of National Accounts, probably related to transcription problems, therefore we proceeded to a cross verification of prices from other sources and we excluded the method of calculation. For the period 1935-1949 are available, although from widely scattered sources, statistics data to estimate the current GDP without major difficulties34. Since 1950 we exclusively used data from the Central Bank of Venezuela as they appear on its web page. Knowing private consumption, public spending (which includes public investment), private investment and net exports we performed operations to estimate the GDP at current prices for the period 1830-1935. For the period 19361949 we also got the product in current terms using available data, that are numerous and range from the behavior of money circulation to exports, imports, government spending, public investment, etc., interpolating some years when it was necessary and appropriate. And for the rest of the series we used, and we want to emphasize this, the official data from the Central Bank of Venezuela. The GDP at market prices obtained for the entire series was deflate using 1984 as base-year thus getting a series at constant price, which as it is customary in these cases, we calculated in international dollars of 1990 35 34

There is a lot of information, although widely dispersed among various sources. We mention two of the most useful: National Income of Venezuela in 1936. BVC 1949 and CEPAL’s report prepared for the Ministry of Development and covering the period 1945-1956 35 The different converters for Power Purchase Parity are available on the World Bank Data Base, product different ICP (International Comparison Program). In this regard we should be very cautious as there are diverse methodology, we recommend reading the text World Economy 1820-1992 and the literature given by Maddison OCSE. While this work we use the WB PPP data base, also the latest series of Penn Word Table are of great interest for comparison. It is worth clarifying here that our data differ from Prof Maddison simply by the difference between the information he uses to make its calculations and ours. Author’s Note.

45

POPULATION The population is a key factor in any economic measurement. For the period 1783-1829 we encounter a real dilemma, because there are only estimates of travelers who visited Venezuela during those years and some incomplete data from various Spanish ecclesiastical and civil authority census or estimations of the time. The best work on colonial demography remains the one from Professor John Lombardi, though limited to the Archbishop of the Province of Caracas. The road we took to solve this problem was to consult almost all estimates values available for the period that interests us, both from primary and secondary sources, including data from the province of Caracas, the General Captaincy of Venezuela and Great Colombia36 . We chose those that seemed to match the behavior of late-colonial economy between 1777 and 1829. We selected some base years (benchmarking years) and interpolate the population between them. We must insist that this is a very rough estimate, a conjecture that gives us a trend in the population growth. We deduced on the basis of the information consulted, that the population for what would be later the republic of Venezuela could have reach about 580,000 inhabitants for 1783 and grew to almost 800,000 people (Humboldt) and stood at 850,000 (Lombardi) in 1810. Between 1811 and 1822 the population decreased to 766,000 (Humboldt) as a consequence of the earthquake in Caracas in 1812, the Independence War, various epidemics in densely populated areas and the migration of part of the white population, especially Spanish and white Creole that moved to places like Cuba and Puerto Rico.

36

See among others, the Memories from General Directory of Statistics to the President of the United States of Venezuela, 1873, where there is a long compendium of statistics of the population during the colonial time.

46

For the years between 1830 and 2009, we constructed a population series interpolating for that purpose data from our own estimate for 183037 the official estimate for 1845 and the official census of 1873, 1881, 1891, 1926, 1936 and population projections from the National Institute of Statistics for the period 19502050. Although in this aspect we believe it is necessary to leave the way open for further investigation, to make an effort and to clarify the impact of civil wars and malaria38 on Venezuelan population in the nineteenth century. Regarding to the urban population, we cannot reconstruct for the entire period a series. Given the lack of data for the nineteenth century but we can estimate its weight from 9-10% for 1830 to about 15-16% in 192039 . From the thirties of the twentieth century there is an actual explosion in the growth of urban population; in 1936, according to our estimation, it was of 19.55% and by 1950, according to official census, reached 42.03%. For the year 1830 we start from the population data from some cities, available for the period 1800-1810 (Chi-Yi-Chen Page 20 Table 1-1) and we assume the recovery of the population in urban centers by 1830, after the Independence War. Furthermore, we think important to briefly comment on the dynamics of immigration and the country's ethnic composition. Venezuela is a country that boasts of being a mestizo (mix of races) society that has supposedly achieved a high degree of racial or ethnic harmony40 . Certainly there is no doubt that 37

We use the findings made by Julio Paez Celis in the Essay on Economic Demographics of Venezuela and various data summarized in Chi-Yi Chen Venezuela’s Population Dynamics (1979). 38 In Venezuela there is no tradition of Military History that goes past the Civil-Military relationships. Most of the works of military history, very scarce, are limited to studies of the Military Campaigns of the Independence War, almost always framed in romantic and heroic approach. It is pending the development of what Anglo-Saxon and Europeans call the War and Society Studies. We do not know the destructive effects of the countless civil wars of the nineteenth century on the workforce and the economic consequences thereof. Author´s note. 39 To make the estimation of the population urban population we used the Censuses of 1873, 1881, 1891, 1920, the statistical yearbook of 1938, Izard data in Estadisticas Historicas de Venezuela. We consider the following cities from all regions of the country: Caracas, La Guaira, Maiquetía, Barcelona, Puerto La Cruz, San Fernando de Apure, Maracay, Ciudad Bolivar, Puerto Cabello, Valencia, Zaraza Barquisimeto, Merida, Los Teques, Maturín, Porlamar, Carúpano, Cumana, San Cristóbal, La Grita, Bocono, Cabimas, Maracaibo. Author’s note. 40 See the work of Winthrop R Wright “Café con Leche, Race Class and National Image in Venezuela” University of Texas Press

47

Venezuela is one of the region more genetic mixed societies. Even so it is not a multicultural society as declared in Bolivarian Constitution but, we believe a mestizo one. However, the supposed harmony between different ethnic components of Venezuelan nationality is a half-truth, a textbook construct incorporated into the Venezuelan nationalist rhetoric, an expression the ideology of mestizaje. Table 5:

POP GROWTH RATE

PERIOD

GROWTH RATE %

1783-1830

0,8

1830-1845

2.3

1845-1873

1.2

1873-1881

1.8

1881-1891

1.0

1891-1926

0.7

1926-1936

1.8

1936-1941

2.7

1941-1950

3.1

1830-2009

1.9

Sources: XIII Censo General de población y vivienda y Proyecciones de Población INE. Está excluida lo que los primeros censos oficiales denominan población indígena selvática que alcazaba entre 50.000 y 80.000 habitantes. In reality, there is a constant hostility between mestizo and white behind the dynamics of the social conflict in the history of Venezuela, from the colonial time through the republican period41. Obviously, with the end of the colonial bond, the institutionalized forms of racism disappeared, but the inter-ethnic hostility is still 41

. Barry Cannon. “Class / Race Polarization in Venezuela and the electoral success of Hugo Chávez: a break with the past or the Song Remains the Same?” Centre for International Studies School of Law and Government Dublin City University Working, paper 9 of 2008.

48

recurrent and its surfaces in all its extents at a times where economic and social crisis get loose. Some recent articles have even proposed the idea of studying social differences through genetic admixture. This is the case of a work entitled “Admixture Estimates for Caracas, Venezuela, Based on Autosomal, YChromosome, and mtDNA Markers”. The conclusion of this study is that Venezuelans descent of European descent are over-represented in high socioeconomic (0.76) with few Afro-Venezuelan (the sub-Saharan African component is 0.06), while in social levels of lowest income the mix of Afro-Venezuelan and euroVenezuelans and

Amerindian

have respectively 0.21, 0.42, 0.3642. A second

study called “A Melting Pot of mtDNA multicontinental Lineages in admixed Venezuelans”, which analyzes the contribution of mitochondrial DNA mixture reaches the surprising result that 80% of Venezuelans through the maternal line, are of Amerindian lineage43. Probably both studies, of undoubted interest and scientific value, are consequences of a historic time of high social and political polarization. The reality is that neither genes nor IQ determine the income of a population or a country44 , are the historical, cultural and above all institutional factors, that is, the environment, the main elements. The country's ethnic composition is difficult to establish because the census, since the mid-nineteenth century, failed to collect data to this regard, it was considered a form of racism or a way of threatened equality. But it is possible to make some considerations and provide some figures that may allow us to analyze the evolution of the population from the ethnic point of view. The white population which was about 25% at the end of the Colonial period fell below 10% in the early XX45 . This contraction of the white population relative to

42

Alberto Gomez-Carballa, Ana Ignacio-Veiga, Vanessa A Alvarez-Iglesias, Ana Ruiz Pastoriza-Mourelle, Yarimar, Lennie Pineda, Angel Carracedo, and Antonio Salas. A Melting Pot of mtDNA Lineages in admixed multicontinental Venezuelans. American Journal of Physical Anthropology 147:78-87 (2012). 43 Helios Martinez, Alvaro Rodriguez Larralde, Mary Helen Izaguirre, and Dinorah Castro De Guerra. Admixture Estimates for Caracas, Venezuela, Based on Autosomal, Y-Chromosome, and mtDNA Markers. Human Biology, 79 (2): 201-213. 2007.. 44 . See in this respect The "Out of Africa" Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development. Ashraf and Oded Galor Quamrul IZA DP No. 6330 January 2012. 45 With teutonic accuracy Professor Otto Burger, in a book published in German in 1922, gives the following figures for 1839: 27.3%White, 43.6%Mestizo, 5.3% Black, 17.8% Amerindians and 6% free Amerindians. By

49

the total was caused by the ravages of the War of Independence, the emigration of Spanish, Canaries and Venezuelan supporting the King of Spain to other Spanish colonies in the Antilles, the intensification of the process of miscegenation, and possibly a lower reproduction rate among whites in relation to the mestizo population. Throughout the nineteenth century, in Venezuela, there was virtually no immigration, despite multiple efforts made to attract European settlers, the country simply was not attractive. By 1900, the foreigners resident in the country were about 35,000, less than one percent of the total population, mostly Canarian, Spanish and Italian. During the first decades of the twentieth century, mainly from the exploitation of oil, but primarily as a State policy implemented by the military government of General Marcos Perez Jimenez and with the declared intention to "whiten" the population, an old dream of Venezuelan elites and 46

Bolívar

even Simon

, always fearful that the country fell into the hands of the pardos, it was

encouraged the immigration of Italians, Spanish and Portuguese, who arrived in a number close to 450,000, at a time when the population was about 5,000,000 inhabitants. During those years the white population of the country came to be at a minimum of 25% and up to 30% of the total. Democratic government, which replaced the military regime in 1959 judge necessary, in order to protect local labor at a time of economic crisis and because it wasn’t part of his ideological proposal to “whiten” the country, disrupting definitely the arrival of Europeans who were not relatives of those already established in the country. Therefore, the European immigration to Venezuela was relatively minor when compared with other Latin American countries like Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil, and limited to the period 1952-1958 .But their presence is very evident, since much of the commercial and small and medium industries development is due to them. The vast majority of Europeans and their descendants now are the backbone of the professional sector and medium income class of the population.

1891 the figures are 2% White Venezuelan mestizo 89.8%, 5% black, 1.9% free Amerindians, 1.3% white foreigners. 46 Aline Helg “Simon Bolivar and the Spectre of Pardocracia: José Padilla in Post-Independence Cartagena” J. Lat. Amer. Stud. 35, 447-471.

50

In the seventies, the rise of oil prices stimulated a new influx of immigration, even greater and more lasting than that of the fifties, coming almost exclusively from Latin America. The exact number of immigrants from Latin America is impossible to measure, according to several unofficial sources it was between 3 and 5 million. In general, immigrants from neighboring countries were rapidly integrated, especially enlarging the popular sectors, thanks to the sharing of language and culture. Naturally in this integration process there were problems between the hosted country and their new citizens, but they were overcome without major incident. Although it is interesting to note, and this is a rarely studied, that the vast amount of immigration from Latin American and Caribbean, of various racial origins, changed the ethnic, demographic and cultural profile of popular areas and generally of the country, especially in large urban centers, as any careful observer can perceive if goes to the popular areas around major metropolitan centers. Today is possible to find in slums around the big cities in Venezuela, complete neighborhoods or areas with residents of the same national origin from various countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, though they are all Venezuelan citizens or residents, and are properly integrated into their new society. In the past quarter of the XX century, the ethnic composition of the population changed fast due to the large immigration of mestizos, afro-descent and Amerindian from Latin America and the Caribbean countries. The highest rate of reproduction rate of new immigrants and Venezuelan popular sectors compared with Venezuelans of the middle and upper strata from European-origin along with the return to their countries of many Europeans, as a result of the economic crisis of 1983, the Caracazo in 1989 and coups in 1992 and a significant migration in the last decade of Venezuelan middle class to the United States, Europe and Australia, have produced a rearrangement of the country's ethnic structure. Possibly the white47 population is between a minimum of 10% and a maximum of 15%, highly concentrated in the middle / high social classes, mainly located in Caracas and 47

Lizcano Fernandez Francisco Ethnic Composition of the Three Areas of the Americas Cultural Siglo XXI to the beginning of the century. Center for Research in Social Sciences and Humanities, UAEM. Convergencia, no. 38, May-August2005, ISSN 1405-1435, UAEM, Mexico

51

other urban centers, with a pronounced tendency to decrease rapidly by the exodus of the middle class. Paradoxically, the aspiration repeatedly expressed since colonial times by the Venezuelan power elites, about the urgency of whitening the Venezuelan population to develop and civilize the country was not met, on the contrary, Venezuela is today a country with a high mestizo ethnic profile and the white population in sharp in decline, as it was by end of the nineteenth century.

52

Manufacture Goods and Food Consumption by Venezuelans in the nineteenth century.

The information available with reference to food habits in Venezuelan from colonial times to mid-twentieth century is abundant and varied. Virtually, there is some mention about the eating habits of its people and the various social classes in every written relation done by the Spanish colonial authorities or by the various travelers. So we have a good knowledge about the Venezuelan diet across the centuries and even in some cases we have an interesting attempt of quantifying

48

the food intake in their various types (meat, maize, cassava, beans, etc.). This mass of information added to important contemporary works had allowed us to build some basic food baskets that combined with consumption of manufactured goods, permitted us to estimate domestic private consumption and to begin the construction of the product series using the expenditure approach, the goal of this paper. The most important part of the series we propose is certainly the reconstruction of private consumption49 . We propose two baskets, the basic food basket and the extended basket, the latter includes food, beverages and manufactured goods. We show the value of the extended basket in Bolivares per person, and per family of 2 adults and 3 infants, from 1830 to 1935, used for the calculation of consumption (Table 6). We assume that consumption of three infants equals that of two adults. During the nineteenth century and until the beginning of oil exploration, but especially with the arrival of the Europeans in the mid-fifties of the twentieth century, the diet, we denominated as “national”, was monotonically based on few products that can be called “essential or basic”. These were mainly the bread of maize (“arepa”), grains, with strong preference for black beans, plantains and brown sugar (papelon), a food prepared on the simple processing of sugar cane. 48

Antonio Arellano Moreno, Economic History Documents in the Colonial Era. Travel and Reports, selection and preliminary study of National Academy of History Caracas 1970 49 See the comments on the food consumption of an upper class family in Caracas made by P. L.Bell, Venezuela. Commercial and Industrial Handbook 1922 Washington Government Printing Office

53

The cassava bread was very popular during the Colonial time but less during the Republican period. The most popular drinks were aguardiente and “guarapo”, the latter also made from brown sugar. In addition, each region had certain productionrelated preferences and local traditions. The meat was consumed in huge quantities in the Llanos de Apure, the tubers in the Andes, the salted fish in the Costa (coast), wheat bread in urban centers such as Caracas. Table 6

Años

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862

Extended Basket in Bolívares per person 79 74 82 83 84 82 78 75 65 63 64 64 62 64 64 59 59 60 65 66 66 66 67 69 78 86 63 74 70 73 75 77 72

Extended Basket per family of 5 persons (2 adults, 3 infants) in Bolívares. 315 298 328 332 337 329 314 301 260 251 257 256 249 254 255 238 236 241 260 263 264 265 270 276 311 343 254 294 280 292 300 308 289

54

1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913

71 71 72 74 76 79 81 84 88 90 102 102 100 102 108 112 115 113 107 99 103 113 109 113 101 103 101 95 95 93 99 100 105 104 117 122 103 107 111 114 118 122 129 132 137 143 149 157 163 171 184

286 286 288 296 304 315 325 336 352 359 406 407 398 407 432 448 462 453 430 396 411 452 435 452 404 411 402 380 381 371 396 400 418 416 468 486 412 428 443 455 470 489 514 529 550 573 597 626 652 685 738

55

1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935

222 232 234 257 260 294 337 239 240 243 253 263 293 264 264 246 235 228 212 221 209 219

888 929 936 1027 1042 1177 1348 955 962 971 1013 1052 1174 1054 1057 986 939 914 849 884 837 875

Sources: Cálculos propios

Such basic products, designated here as vital national diet, were complemented according to the region with oscillating quantities of others foodstuffs, as cassava bread, wheat bread, salt, white cheese, yucca, potatoes, meat, butter for frying, rice, cocoa (especially during the Colonial period, when almost a quarter of the production was for domestic consumption), coffee, sugar, salt fish, fruits, onions, etc. Throughout eighteenth and nineteenth century and taking into account diverse fluctuations in crop produce, the production of agricultural goods and food to supply local needs covered about 80-85% of domestic demand. Much of that production, as mentioned, was done in small production units (“conucos”) or in those parcels of lands used for producing food for the workforce of the haciendas and small surpluses for sale in local markets. The food consumption of Venezuelans began to change rapidly only during the oil period and the arrival of the European immigration. Agriculture declined dramatically and today the national 56

production barely covers 50-60% of calories consumption of Venezuelan. The Venezuelan diet became more sophisticated; with a wide range of imported products, among them wheat, whose consumption increased rapidly, transforming the bread, the pasta and the flour of wheat an important component of national diet. With the available information and the findings of several authors we have managed to develop three food baskets, used to reconstruct the consumption of the population, they comprise, in general terms, the period 1830 to 1940. On the other hand, manufactured goods consumed by the population are few and related to meet very basic needs such as candles, kerosene, soap, machetes, hammocks, sandals, shoes, matches, hats and very simple clothing in rural areas, which generally always included one or two changes for special occasions and Sunday´s walks. Mainly in urban centers and in Caracas, the population, including the poorest sectors was very scrupulous and careful in their dress and they like to wear expensive imported accessories, but this was more the exception than the rule. In order to facilitate the reading, we produced four graphs, (Graph 5) with information on the food consumption, manufacturing and beverage in kg per capita / per year. The baskets 1 and 2 correspond respectively to food consumption from 1830 to about the first two decades of the twentieth century, while basket 3 corresponds to the period that begins in the twenties until about the end of the thirties of the twentieth century. It is important to mention that corn consumption was reduced from 120-140 kg per capita to about 90 kilos in the second half of the nineteenth century, while the brown sugar and platanos increased proportionately in the same period. This was possibly due to strong fluctuations in the price of corn from 1870 to the late nineteenth century, with a marked in upward trend, while prices of platanos and brown sugar remained very stable. Later on the consumption of corn moved back close to 120 kg per capita and it remained relatively stable until the mid-forties to go down gradually to 35-40 kg of today. Also, for example, the consumption of milk products began increase from the thirties and was no longer limited to livestock production areas. As we already mentioned, the exploitation of oil, the relative contraction domestic agricultural 57

production to meet the growing domestic demand, and the ability to import large quantities of food gradually changed the proportion of food in the national diet, a process that accelerated with the arrival of European immigrants, whose eating habits were quickly adopted by the local population. With respect to manufacturing and beverages, the data presented focus on the 1830-1935 period and they are expressed in Kg per capita in order to facilitate its use. It can be seen that we have used a minimum consumption of manufactured goods, associated to the minimal requirement of clothing, some toiletries and energy product (Kerosene). We have not included payment of rent because they were negligible. That was a country with mud houses self-constructed in sparse rural areas not unlike the current situation, where self-construction housing is still a considerable part of the supply in the construction sector. Except that today there is a huge market of houses and rooms for rent in the slums; in rural Venezuela of the nineteenth century we didn´t find important references in this respect. Another topic of great interest is the share of imported food for domestic consumption; here the national historiography has exaggerated the relevance of food imports, may be a projection of the present into the past, although it is true that in some years and as a result of a poor harvest some products were imported, such as beans or rice; also, the excessive concentration in coffee monoculture in the late XIX century weakened the production for the domestic market. The reality is that making a careful analysis, year by year for which there are available statistics, along the nineteenth century, we find no reason to reach such a conclusion. Venezuela was not a country dependent on food imports, but rather it was able to cover about 85% of domestic consumption. The imports were primarily concentrated in wheat flours, certain beverages such as wine and a range of processed foods. The truth is that many of these products, by their own characteristics and high prices, were not consumed by most of the population, and were imported to meet the demand of urban centers such as Caracas or Maracaibo, where the average income was twice that of the rest of the country and wealthy classes had residence. But it is good to note that the urban population, on 58

average, during the nineteenth century did not surpass the 10-12% of the total. As an example, for every kilogram of imported wheat it was consumed 12 kilograms of national maize, today the ratio is 1 to 1 and a portion of the corn consumed locally is also imported. Moreover, the country depended on imports of intermediate, capital and final goods. But we believe that the concept of dependency with all its modern meaning in a context of a rudimentary technology, a very limited industrial base, concentrated in craft activities and consumption between 65-70% of food is out of question. Possibly much more reasonable will be to apply this notion to the “Petroleum Venezuela”, but not to that agricultural economy, halfway between the pre-modern and modern. No less important is the relationship between wages and the basket, we called enlarged basket. In this regard we do not have enough salary data for a long series, but we have some figures that allow us to establish a relationship and an idea of minimum wage behavior. Relation one is rural salaries or equivalents and relation two urban salaries. Table 7 Relation extended consumer basket and minimum wages

1835 1840 1845 1849 1850 1875 1880 1885 1887 1890 1895 1900 1901 1905 1910 1922 1935

Soldado 480 480 320 375 325

Peón

sargento Primero

775 579 514 700 580 587 675 480 625 548 840 540

Trabajador peones Urbano ferrocarriles Canasta 329 257 238 263 264 398 453 435 1080 404 380 418 428 1080 444 515 626 1320 962 960 875

Relación 1 1,46 1,87 1,34 1,43 1,23 1,95 1,28 1,18 1,73 1,53 1,40 1,58 1,08 1,21 0,88 0,87 0,62

59

Relación 2

2,67

2,43

1,37 1,10

Sources : Cálculos propios, Carrillo Batalla, Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela, Valecillos , El Crecimiento Económico y el Mercado del Trabajo en Venezuela en el siglo XX, Ricos y Pobres en Táchira Bell P. L Commercial and Industrial Handbook of Venezuela. As can be seen in the table, the minimum real wages (relationship between the nominal wage and the cost of the basket) began to decline from 1901, which coincides with a crisis in those years, a situation which was exacerbated in later years as a result of 1929 depression and the labor policy of Gómez. This apparently happened also with urban wages, both public and private sector, producing a reduction in real wages very important by 1935. It is important to underline, that nearly a half of the Venezuelan labor force worked in agriculture in 1936, about 600,000 people, most of them workers whose wages were extremely low. Minimum real wages 1835-1935 calculated from the relation nominal wage-basket

2,50

Salarios reales 1835-1935 calculados en base a la relacion canasta -salarios nominales

2,00

1,50

1,00

0,50

0,00 1835 1840 1845 1849 1850 1875 1880 1885 1887 1890 1895 1900 1901 1905 1910 1922 1935

Below we shown the graphs related to food baskets and manufactured goods basket, which shows the evolution of food consumption based on the movement of 60

products which we have called “the basic national diet” and it includes: plantains, corn, beans, and brown sugar. In the graphs, it is displayed the importance of these foods in the diet of Venezuelans, even if slowly the percentage of their share in total food consumption declines, as can be inferred through the increase of complementary products and even more to the relative improvement in the food intake of the population, by the late thirties and early forties, when private or household consumption began to grow strongly as a result of oil exports, of the increasing of public spending and of the public and private employment in manufacturing and services. The rapid urbanization and the contraction of the employed in the agricultural sector, traditionally the sector with the lowest wages in the Venezuelan economy, propelled and accompanied this process. Between 1908 and 1936 the private consumption per capita (1984 prices) grew at an annual rate of just 1.5%. In the 14 years from 1935 and 1949 it was 4.69%. As happens in these situations, the increased revenue is dedicated at first to increased food acquisition.

61

Graph 5 Consumption of food in KG. Baskets 1, 2 and 3and manufacture goods basket Consumo Alimentos en KG canasta 3 Consumo

Consumo Alimentos en KG canasta 1 Consumo en KG de maiz, platanos,gran os y papelon

52

290

Platanos, maiz, Papelon, Granos en KG

104

Consumo otros comestibles en KG

Consumo Alimentos KG Canasta 2

Consumo otros comestibles en KG

308

Consumo de Productos manufacturados y Bebidas en KG

alpargatas velas jabon

Consumo de Platanos, Maiz, Papelon, Granos en KG

73

4

fosforos

2 4

kerosene

5

zapatos 6

312 Consumo otros Comestibles en KG

1

lana algodon

3 2 1 2

2

aceites aguardiente cervezas

It may be interesting to add some final considerations regarding the present consumption, using both kg of food consumption per capita and its composition and compare them with data developed for this work. For this purpose, we have taken a single year, 2005, which is sufficient to show the structure of the food groups compared to the proposed baskets, and also we took a number of years in order to observe the consumption of food per Kg capita/per year. To simplify, we 62

have excluded calculations of the kilocalorie consumed, although the average for the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries fluctuated between 2200 and 2300 per day/ inhabitant, not far from the average amount for rest the twentieth century.

Graph 6 Consumption of food KG 2005 Consumo de Alimentos en KG 2005 96

otros platanos, granos,azucar,maiz

384

Source: INN y cálculos propios

As shown in the above Graph, the traditional products of the Venezuelan diet in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, represent only 20% of total food consumption in 2005 and this is so if we include refined sugar (37kg) used as a partial substitute of brown sugar to sweeten. While in the baskets 1, 2 and 3 traditional products represent 82.4%, 81.03 and 74.5%, respectively. This allows us to understand the dimensions of the change produced by oil as a source of economic transformation. Ultimately, the exploitation of oil and the wealth it generated was the appeal that led Europeans to immigrate to Venezuela in the mid-fifties and spread their eating habits. The oil income also allowed developing a food import capacity that leads to a drastic change in Venezuelans habits. In the graph below, we can observe the comportment of food consumption per capita in kg per year. We have included recent and the only available data, so we can 63

compare with the baskets made for the purpose of calculating the domestic private consumption for our series. The series of food consumption we presented is fairly reliable until 2006, although we must clarify we consulted the nutritional profile of Venezuela, reported by the FAO for the year 2000, which includes the years 1982, 1984 and the series from 1990-1997 and they differ greatly from the data we use; this is not happening with the amounts derived from the technical unit of Fedeagro (National Confederation of Agricultural Producers of Venezuela) that are fairly close to the officials. Therefore, we used government figures from the National Institute of Nutrition (NIN), however, since 2006 the increase is rapid and may be somewhat inflated to highlight the achievements of the Bolivarian Revolution.

Graph 7 Consumption of Food in Kg 600

Consumo Alimentos Kg per capita

500 400 300 Serie1 200 100

1 2 3 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

Fuente: INN y cálculos propios

64

Measuring the Economy from 1783 to 1829 Trying to estimate the behavior of Venezuelan economy in the late colonial period, that is, during the war of independence and the Great Colombian era, is quit complicated by the limited availability of data and the absence of reference points, but it could be stimulating, since it is our appreciation that the Captaincy General of Venezuela, along with Cuba and Mexico were the largest economy in terms of income per capita in the Spanish imperial conglomerate of Hispanic America at the end of the colonial period. The economy of the Venezuela´s provinces50 , unlike that of New Spain, were no rich in mineral deposits neither it possessed large amount of Indian labor; also it didn´t have the many Cuban sugar plantations and the immediate attention the island received due to its strategic geographic situation. Venezuela was rather, for a long time, an economy of subsistence located within the confines of the Spaniard Empire, far away from the metropolis attention. Only through a very slow growth, but long term lasting process, Venezuela reached a vigorously development of cocoa agriculture, to which it were added other products such as coffee, indigo, cattle, hides and cotton by the last days of the colony. It also integrated slowly into the Atlantic market maybe throughout commerce smuggling with the Caribbean island in the hands of European powers, especially the Dutch, and finally at the end of the colonial period, selling its exports mainly to the Anglo-Saxon Powers. Almost all travelers to Venezuela, as Francisco Depons, the iconic Humboldt, and Dauxion Lavaysse, observed a progressing society with an expanding economy and population . With those the mention observations we do not want to hide the reality of Venezuelan society contradictions that exploded violently during the war of independence. Our intention is only to underline the degree of wealth achieved by that territory devoid of significant mineral or labor advantages.

50

. For the Venezuelan Colonial Economic History are fundamental work of Arcila Eduardo Farias, Manuel Lucena, Juan Andreo Garcia Miguel Izard and Ferrigni Yoston

65

The birth of modern Venezuela is shape by space and communicating arteries: it is the product of particular geographical conditions. The fertile valleys of the Coastal Mountain, the open coast with their natural harbors in the Caribbean Sea are a point aggregation of the economic activity and of the population, a situation that persists even today. The Venezuelan economy was born as a close frontier economy with few external exchanges, in the periphery of the Spanish imperial structure and with an agricultural production which was intended to meet the needs of local inhabitants. Over the time, that strip of coast and mountains became integrate with the Atlantic system by joining the European trading posts in the Caribbean, and linking simultaneously to the Viceroyalty of Mexico as a supplier of tropical fruits (cocoa). Then, with the arrival of the Bourbons to the Spanish throne and their new mercantilist economic policy, the Basque company Guipuzcoana was established in 1728. This company had the goal of monopolize the trade of cocoa to Europe and import products to supply the Venezuelan provinces. For fifty years, until 1781, the company of Caracas, as it was known, not only controlled or tried to supervise and regulate Venezuelan external trade, but also enjoyed broad powers, such as organizing the repression by military means of the contraband and coasts monitoring. His performance in the Venezuelan provinces was controversial, resulting in intense clashes with Venezuelans farmers; land owners small scale commerce (pulperos). But it is clear that the Venezuelan provinces saw their trade and production expanded throughout those years. The role of the Basques was not limited to trade, but was also important in social, cultural and political aspects. Within the ships of the Guipuzcoana company arrived illustration and many European modes to Venezuela, manners that molded the mindset of the aristocrats “mantuanos” and even the castes. The creation of the Intendencia General de Ejército y Real Hacienda in 1776 and the General Captain of Venezuela in 1777 finally established a centralized political and administrative unit that would become later on the Republic of Venezuela. The provinces that depended from the 66

Audience of Santo Domingo or the Viceroyalty of New Granada began to depend on the Spanish bureaucracy in Caracas and not least on their Cabildo formed by an arrogant “mantuanaje”. The largest economic and political heart of the CoastMountain strip became the city of Caracas, the center of power, at the expense of the provincial elite. The Company of Caracas gradually lost its dominance, but the Basques continue to exercise their imperial-bureaucratic power, as Mayors or officials in the new political and legal apparatus. The latter period, covering the years 1770-1810, was crossed by different circumstances, in fact, the foreign trade de facto and de jure is liberalized and the economy diversified and fully integrates the Atlantic market. Internally, the Coast-Mountain strip mobilized, especially from the eighteenth century on. It tries to expand its production frontier by submitting, integrating and articulating to its economic growth and cocoa production and exports its own periphery. This vast hinterland is comprised the wide plains of the llanos the deep South with its jungles and Guyana’s plateau. It is throughout the establishment of large cattle ranches, villages and missions that the dominant political and economic structure tries to get a hold on those lands. The domestic trade of livestock and the control of labor are the instrument used to exercise command over the these huge lands, but it is a precarious domination, uncertain, constantly threatened by the populations of slaves, mulattos and Amerindians fleeing from the geographical center and taking refuge in small settlements as

quilombos and

rochelas. These vast areas were still in 1810 a frontier area, where coexisted the natural economy of subsistence and the hunting of wild cattle, with a surplus agroexporting economy, private property as a legal regime and the absence of property as the way of life. It was the frontline of the occidental and anti-occidental alms of the country. When independence arrived, this contradiction is still standing and would cause a deep breakdown of all the colonial socio-political system, whose consequences continue to be felt in the new Republic for a long time. The Venezuelan colonial economy, or even better the Venezuelan economic history, can be understood as a sequence of cycle of exportation of primary 67

products (cocoa, coffee, oil) that connects the local market with the international market. In the specific case of the colonial period, cocoa is the king, and from the eighteenth century it is the center of the colonial economic organization that moves around the volume and prices of cocoa and it’s positioning in markets in Veracruz (Mexico), Netherlands Antilles, Netherlands, Spain and finally into the Atlantic economy dominated by the Anglo-Saxon powers. Professor Eugenio Piñero, in a book practically unknown in Venezuela, title "The Town of San Felipe and Colonial Cacao Economies" examines, from the point of view of the Staple Theory, the linkages between the export product and the regional economy of San Felipe. The text of Piñero has two parallel but converging arguments that very useful for the historical researchers in Venezuela. First, he criticizes the model of economic dependency, and secondly, he provides a detailed description of the backward linkages on domestic demand (consumption + investment) that cocoa processing for exportation had on the regional San Felipe economy. The Staple approach has the advantage of concentrating its tools of empirical and historical analysis on the detail reconstruction of the impact of the primary product in the economy and local society. But the difficulty arises at the juncture of evolution or transition, from a staple to a post staple economy; there we enter in a complex terrain, where we do not have schemes, recipes or experiences to use. Each society is the result of permeable, mutable, thus dynamic, of particular social practices, routines, rituals and habits, delimited by its institutions and formal and informal rules, mentality, geography and climate, by its quantity and quality of human capital, by its level of investment and capital productivity, historical patterns of settlement, regional differences, socio-political relationship and so. Therefore development, that we could define very succinctly as prolonged and irreversible economic growth depends on a large number of variables difficult to weigh accurately in a single equation. The passage from the Exporting Economy of Primary Goods (Staple Economy)51 (48) to a diversified economy (Post Staple Economy) is not then the product of a set of mechanical linkages between the export product and its internal market, it is possibly a long, complex and slow journey, with random or induced 51

See the work of Harold Innis. A Fur Trade in Canada The University of Toronto Press 1956.

68

changes on social practices, institutions, mentality, etc.., with partial or total replacement for those that just do not encourage the coupling of the economic structure with those that yield long term growth. In short, the evolution of colonial Venezuelan economy was subject to two elements over three centuries. These two elements were its geographical location as on the facade of the Caribbean and its connection through that sea, as a supplier of tropical fruits to the Atlantic market. Sometimes these factors combined virtuously to expand production and trade and other negatively, causing disruption and contraction of the economic activity. The latter occurred whenever the war between European powers obstructed foreign trade, the engine that drove the latecolonial economy. By the end of the Colony, the General Captain of Venezuela had achieved a remarkable progress. To quantify this evolution there is no other way that to use an indirect method and being unorthodox in their application as we already explained. The other option is to do nothing, and that seems even worse. We faced three problems; the first, was to made a series of population, second, was to build a series of the GDP and the latter, was to obtain a price index that would allow us deflect current prices. We want to underline that the result is a simple exercise an approximation; it could indicate a trend and therefore, subject to errors and corrections in the future. We will concentrate in the performance of GDP and the evolution of population for the period beginning in 1783 and concluded in 1829. In order to understand the progression of the economy, we divided it in two phases, and subsequently we display a single series covering the entire period. The first phase refers to the period 1783-1810, the strictly late-colonial period, preceding the dissolution of the colonial bond. The second refers to the Independence war and the political experience of the Great Colombia, which concludes in 1830 with the birth of the Republic of Venezuela. This second period is highly complex, because between 1811 and 1821 the war of Independence was fought in Venezuela’s territory causing destruction of all kinds and a widespread disorder in the public administration.

69

Though, some royal troops keep battling, the great military campaigns ended with the Battle of Carabobo in 1821,

from that moment on Venezuela began to

organize effectively as part of the Great Colombia. We selected 1783 as the starting date for a simple reason: for that period we have some estimates of the population and foreign trade, allowing us to build the series. Then, in Table 7, we show the data.

Table 7 POP and GDP

Pob 1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796 1797 1798 1799 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809

586.736 599.281 611.826 624.371 636.915 649.460 662.005 674.550 687.095 699.640 712.185 724.730 737.275 749.820 762.365 774.910 787.455 800.000 805.441 810.882 816.323 821.764 827.205 832.646 838.087 843.528 848.969

GDP Current Millions de Bs. 88,10 92,42 95,46 104,55 100,59 102,93 101,00 100,00 110,92 127,79 120,09 129,18 111,84 117,62 123,40 106,07 110,56 115,05 98,51 128,04 124,37 116,36 107,21 116,36 121,54 98,27 125,52

GDP GDP per cápita Deflactor 1984 Current Bs 1984 millions 150,15 4,20 2.096,31 154,22 4,75 1.944,53 156,02 4,94 1.933,03 167,45 4,76 2.198,39 157,93 3,66 2.749,66 158,49 3,66 2.813,62 152,57 3,66 2.760,87 148,25 3,66 2.733,53 161,43 3,66 3.032,03 182,65 5,12 2.495,13 168,62 3,66 3.282,70 178,25 4,76 2.716,29 151,69 3,66 3.057,18 156,86 3,66 3.215,18 161,86 3,75 3.294,12 136,88 3,11 3.412,73 140,40 3,29 3.357,99 143,81 5,12 2.246,38 122,31 3,31 2.978,76 157,90 4,92 2.604,18 152,35 4,54 2.741,69 141,60 4,62 2.516,41 129,61 3,66 2.930,62 139,75 3,66 3.180,74 145,02 4,57 2.658,72 116,50 4,54 2.166,32 147,85 4,62 2.714,50

GDP per cápita 1984 3.572,83 3.244,77 3.159,44 3.520,97 4.317,15 4.332,25 4.170,46 4.052,38 4.412,83 3.566,30 4.609,33 3.748,00 4.146,60 4.287,94 4.320,92 4.404,04 4.264,36 2.807,97 3.698,30 3.211,54 3.358,58 3.062,20 3.542,80 3.820,04 3.172,37 2.568,17 3.197,41

GDP per cápita dollars 1990 1.064,07 966,36 940,95 1.048,62 1.285,74 1.290,24 1.242,05 1.206,88 1.314,23 1.062,12 1.372,76 1.116,23 1.234,94 1.277,04 1.286,86 1.311,62 1.270,02 836,27 1.101,43 956,46 1.000,26 911,99 1.055,12 1.137,69 944,80 764,86 952,26

70

1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829

854.410 847.050 839.691 832.332 824.973 817.614 810.255 802.895 795.536 788.177 780.818 773.459 766.100 778.484 790.868 803.252 815.637 828.021 840.405 852.789

115,63 91,91 89,63 87,20 80,90 101,79 101,57 103,37 104,14 101,09 98,78 101,22 103,65 122,60 119,97 110,56 143,96 108,15 105,25 105,40

135,33 108,51 106,74 104,77 98,06 124,50 125,36 128,75 130,91 128,26 126,51 130,87 135,30 157,49 151,69 137,64 176,50 130,61 125,24 123,59

4,59 3,66 4,13 4,13 4,13 4,19 4,39 3,60 3,78 4,19 4,27 4,42 5,36 5,33 5,68 5,79 5,56 5,00 4,45 4,57

2.516,55 2.512,39 2.172,04 2.113,16 1.960,49 2.432,22 2.313,71 2.871,60 2.758,43 2.415,50 2.311,80 2.290,46 1.935,32 2.301,72 2.113,03 1.907,95 2.588,94 2.161,05 2.365,99 2.308,61

2.945,36 2.966,05 2.586,72 2.538,84 2.376,42 2.974,78 2.855,53 3.576,55 3.467,39 3.064,66 2.960,74 2.961,33 2.526,20 2.956,67 2.671,78 2.375,28 3.174,14 2.609,90 2.815,30 2.707,13

877,19 883,35 770,38 756,12 707,75 885,95 850,44 1.065,17 1.032,66 912,72 881,77 881,95 752,35 880,56 795,71 707,41 945,32 777,28 838,45 806,24

Sources: Cálculos Propios para la construcción de la serie

The colonial economy grew with relative strength or preserved a high level of income per capita from 1783 to about 1799. Since 1797, the wars of Spain against England, and other difficult situations arisen as a consequence of the shortage of manpower, the lack of roads and the impossibility of storing a highly corruptible product as cocoa, brought structural difficulties, limiting the ability of colonial agriculture to sustain in time an expansive growth. Therefore, following the results of our research, from 1800 to 1810 the economy enters a phase of stagnation and decline, although in some years of this last period, the exports are able to recover its dynamism. The average GDP per capita for the period 1783-1799 is 1.193, 57 (1990 International dollars), while for the decade 1800-1810, it reached $ 958.03. The graph shown below, with a 5-year moving average shown the evolution of the income per capita, which grows from 1783 to 1788 and from there it stabilized, until it begins to decline from 1800. It is worth noting here that the development of GDP 71

for the period 1783-1829 has a high correlation coefficient with the foreign trade, which is equal to 0.8810, situation, as we have clarified, we consider a disadvantage of the series presented for the period. Likewise, the deflator is based mainly in the export prices of major commodities, with the most complete set of prices based on indigo. Graph 8 1.600,00

GDP per capita dollars 1990 1783-1810

1.200,00

800,00

400,00

Sources : Cálculos Propios. Another interesting aspect is the performance of the external sector; graph 9 shows the estimated we have used, expressed in millions of currents bolivars and a moving average of 5 years, for exports plus imports, for the period 1783-1810. As it can be seen, using a five-year moving average, foreign trade expands until the end of the XVIII century and then stabilized with a very slight tendency to decrease and strong fluctuations from 1797, as a consequence of the European war and its impact on colonial trade

72

1810

1809

1808

1807

1806

1805

1804

1803

1802

1801

1800

1799

1798

1797

1796

1795

1794

1793

1792

1791

1790

1789

1788

1787

1786

1785

1784

1783

0,00

Graph 9 70.000.000 60.000.000

Export + Import in current BS 1783-1810

50.000.000 40.000.000 30.000.000 20.000.000 10.000.000 1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796 1797 1798 1799 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810

0

Fuente Cálculos Propios. La Intendencia en Venezuela de Juan Andreo García y Yoston Ferrigni . La Crisis Del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela Tomo I

Exports in volumes, as shown in the table below, diminished between 1786 and 1800, with the exception of coffee, that slowly begins to replace cocoa as the main exportation product. In fact, by the time of the dissolution of Gran Colombia, coffee ranks as the leading export product and by the end of nineteen century, it represents about 70% of all exports and about half of the hectares of land under production. A second interesting element is that for late eighteenth century, Venezuelan exports had achieved a high degree of diversification through the development of cotton, indigo, tobacco and the aforementioned coffee. While the competitiveness of Venezuela in both indigo and cotton was very low compared to other world producers, we must also give credit to local farmers and ranchers as able to exploit the favorable situation of increasing demand for these goods in the European market and England, where the industrialization process

was

expanding.

73

Table 8

1786-90 Cacao en Fanegas

1791-95

1796-1800

431.215

377.106

274.766

1.470.116

3.590.369

1.380.073

Algodón en libras

337.102

1.704.512

139.564

Café en libras

93.396

1.090.512

2.250.443

Tabaco en libras

365.109

1.432.530

809.028

Azúcar en libras

2.057

29.158

25.176

Añil en libras

Sources: La Intendencia en Venezuela de Juan Andreo García. Los datos de las dos primeras columnas se corresponden con el comercio hacia y desde la metrópoli. El último incluye países neutrales. The period covering 1810-1829 is quite complicated, because of the war state and continuous reorganization of public administration, sometimes in the hands of Republicans (patriots) and another under the control of the Realists (monarchists). This makes very difficult to obtain "national" figures of import, export, taxes, etc. However, for the period in study, we have extensive data of foreign trade through the ports of La Guaira and Puerto Cabello, the main ports of the Captaincy and the province of Caracas, as well as information on the collection of taxes on foreign trade and of import and export rights in the various ports enabled by the Captaincy and later by the Republic. The previous data and using the work of Professor Yoston Ferrigni on the performance of the Venezuelan colonial economy between 1770 and 1830, allowed us to make an estimated value of Venezuela's total foreign trade for 1810-1830. The time comprising 1810-1829 is crossed by major events 74

such as the breaking of the colonial link, military operations during the war of Independence in Venezuela until the victory in the Battle of Carabobo (1821), the formation and destruction of the First and Second Republics and the creation of Gran Colombia, of which Venezuela was a Department from the political and legal point of view. As for the previous period, we first show the performance of GDP per capita in 1990 dollars. Graph 10

GDP per capita dollars 1990 1811-1829

1.200,00 900,00 600,00 300,00 0,00

1811181218131814181518161817181818191820182118221823182418251826182718281829

Sources: Cálculos Propios

The GDP per capita suffers a significant drop between 1811 and 1814. This period included the tougher years, from a military point of view, because they involved all military operations against the Republic unleash by Jose Tomas Boves, a “blanco de orilla”, born in Oviedo Spain in 1782. During that time also General Simon Bolivar proclaimed the Decree of War to the Death. Those years were of merciless war and cruelty reached unprecedented levels with executions of civilians and prisoners of war committed on both sides. Venezuelan historiography, rightly, judge Boves as the first popular military caudillo who emerged in Venezuela, even today some left opinion journalist 75

experts on historical affairs and some academics groups have tried to rescue his figure as the first chief of Venezuelan democracy or as leader of popular struggles against dominant social groups. In this regards, it is important the approach of Professor Roberto Lopez Sanchez in an article entitled " El Protagonismo Popular en la Historia de Venezuela” because he adequately summarized the dominant interpretation about the early years of the War of Independence. The war opened by the aristocracy (“mantuanaje”) to dissolve the colonial link, faced abruptly and immediately the opposition of caste and a breakdown of the social colonial order. It revealed how the deep were the social contradictions and the intense hate between white and pardos that were nested in the Captaincy, where belonging to a particular ethnic group determine its social status. There were two clearly identifiable foes: the realist (monarchic) led by Boves, that incorporated the zambos, Negroes slaves, mulattoes… that mean “the mixed race people”. The other side aggregates essentially the white Creoles. War quickly takes an intensely ferocious turn, with attempts and threats by Boves's colored troops, to literally destroy the white population; to this the Patriots responded with the same brutality. The war moved swiftly, with the advancing of Boves’ army, from the plains of the country (llanos), to densely populated areas and agricultural production of the Coastal – Mountain area. The production and the trade activities were affected considerably; however, the widespread of destruction of productive activities described by Venezuelan historiography is an exaggeration. However it is clear that economic activity contracted intensely during 1812-1814, but recovered quickly from 1815 to 1817 and then back again, with some growth surges in 1823 and 1826. Real income per capita went from 883.35 (1990 dollars) in 1811 to an average of income 744.74 (1990 dollars) for the period 1812-1814. Seven years later, until the conclusion of the war, or at least of the major military operations at Carabobo in 1821, the average income is 930.09 (1990 dollars). However, the trend in GDP per capita for the period 1814-1829 was a declining one, being the average 849.03 (1990 dollars). Foreign trade was depressed until 1823, when he began to grow, with fluctuations, until 1827 then suffered a sharp drop with stabilization until 1829. 76

Graph 11

Foreign Commerce ( export + import) current BS 1811-1829 70.000.000 60.000.000 50.000.000 40.000.000 30.000.000 20.000.000 10.000.000 0 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 Serie1

Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni . La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela Tomo II

Finally we try to corroborate the series presented in this section. Any historical time series not only have to use an appropriate and well developed methodological technique; an historical series of national accounts must verify its advantages by representing quantitatively a qualitative reality, otherwise it is only a good methodological exercise. Professor Yoston Ferrigni, trying to prove his argument that the war of Independence did not produce the destruction and ruin of the economy, which has become a common place “a Venezuelan historiography obsession”, uses a method, which is from our point of view, very effective. He takes from the accounting books, the data for sales values, volumes and prices, of the cocoa produced in for different “haciendas” of Venezuela. They are the Haciendas de las Monjas de la Inmaculada Concepción de Caracas, that is: Haciendas La Tadino y Guacarapa in Ocumare, Santa Teresa in Santa Teresa del Tuy and Ocumare in los Valles de Ocumare of Costa. Of the four Haciendas examined, three of them 77

produced exclusively cocoa, while the fourth produced cocoa and other products such as rice, beans, brown sugar etc., this last one is useful to know the evolution of agricultural production for the domestic market. Cocoa was not only an exportation product; approximately 25% of production was consumed locally. Even if the sample is small, its geographical location is very useful because the Haciendas were located in the core region of agricultural production. From the work of Professor Ferrigni we only took cocoa sales volumes (fanegas), values (converted from pesos to bolivares) and the wholesale prices from 1800 to 1829. To understand the evolution of the economy of Venezuela between 1800 and 1832, we are showing in table 9 the result obtained by the method of Professor Ferrigni, (we could define it as a microeconomic approach) together with the data of the series macroeconomic (GDP per capita in current bolivares Table 9

RELACION DE LAS CUENTAS DE LAS HACIENDAS DE LA INMACULADA CONCEPCION Y PIB per Cápita

1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818

Ventas de Cacao Valor en Bs 21.923,20 25.157,00 59.578,65 43.667,00 38.547,10 50.402,15 103.122,90 36.890,40 63.051,10 66.183,10 33.868,85 17.220,70 23.287,05 26.167,00 57.436,25 100.716,25 100.232,50 59.569,30 65.320,30

fanegas vendidas 383,22 455,29 589,32 339,35 229,41 650,63 1066,41 445,26 990 808,11 483,42 339,09 440,82 473,21 745 802 781 605,85 600,28

Precios en pesos de la fanega de cacao 10,88 10,84 19,9 25,68 33,21 15,25 19,26 19,3 12,87 16,8 13,86 10,12 10,4 10 15,58 24,65 25,98 19,53 21,28

PIB per cápita BS corrientes 143,81 122,31 157,90 152,35 141,60 129,61 139,75 145,02 116,50 147,85 135,33 108,51 106,74 104,77 98,06 124,50 125,36 128,75 130,91

78

1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832

70.931,30 75.057,20 60.150,60 59.809,65 76.366,60 65.563,50 71.185,80 100.925,65 70.562,50 84.478,05 63.300,00 87.364,25 46.161,80 58.215,00

614,15 669,5 560,09 582,6 668,56 530,73 603,52 882,00 731,5 901,87 563,6 902,4 597,94 560,92

23,28 21,75 20,22 20,62 22,87 24,11 22,93 20,64 18,88 18,12 20,74 17,76 15,7 19,52

128,26 126,51 130,87 135,30 157,49 151,69 137,64 176,50 130,61 125,24 123,59 130,48 121,38 133,92

Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela Tomo II

79

Graph 12 Cacao sold in current Bs.

Ventas de Cacao en Bs corrientes de las Haciendas de la Inmaculada Concepcion de Caracas 1800-1829 120.000,00 100.000,00 80.000,00 60.000,00 40.000,00 20.000,00 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829

0,00

Serie1

5 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)

Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela Tomo II

80

Grafico 13 Cacao sold in fanegas units

Ventas en fanegas de cacao de las Haciendas de la Inmaculada Concepcion de Caracas 1800-1829 1.200,00 1.000,00 800,00 600,00 400,00 200,00

1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829

0,00

volumen ventas en fanegas

5 Per. Media Mobile (volumen ventas en fanegas)

Source Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni .La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela

81

Graph 14 Prices cocoa by fanega in pesos. Precios Promedios al mayor en Pesos por Fanega de las ventas de las Haciendas de La Inmaculada Concepcion de Caracas 1800-1829

35,00 30,00 25,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00

1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829

0,00 Serie1

5 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)

Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela Tomo II.

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Grafico 15 GDP per capita dollars de 1990 1800-1829 1200,00 1000,00 800,00 600,00 400,00 200,00

Serie1

5 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)

Fuente: Cálculos Propios

83

1829

1828

1827

1826

1825

1824

1823

1822

1821

1820

1819

1818

1817

1816

1815

1814

1813

1812

1811

1810

1809

1808

1807

1806

1805

1804

1803

1802

1801

1800

0,00

As can be seen in the previous graphs (12, 13, and 14) and the next (16), and although we cannot speak of a correlation between the variables, GDP per capita fluctuations matched with the variations observed in the accounts books of the haciendas. Sales values and volume have strong oscillations in the decade preceding the Independence from Spain and so the price of a fanega bulk of cocoa in Caracas. The military situation in Europe, complicating the Venezuelan foreign trade and the loss of metropolitan market were troubles added to the economy's structural impediments to sustain prolonged growth and diversification shown in the last two decades of the eighteenth century. War produces a significant contraction in the period 1811-1814, which is also reflected in the sales trends, volumes and prices of cocoa from the haciendas, but there wasn´t a collapse of the economy as usually is claim by the Venezuelan historiography.

Grafico 16 GDP and Trades of Cocoa of the Haciendas in logarithm 1800-1832

Comportamiento del PIB en Bs corrientes y ventas en Bs de las haciendas de la Inmaculada Concepcion datos en logaritmos 1800-1832 8,20

5,20

8,15

5,00

8,10 4,80

8,05 8,00

4,60

7,95

4,40

7,90

4,20

7,85 4,00

7,80

3,80 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832

7,75

pib

ventas

84

Fuente: Cálculos Propios y Yoston Ferrigni. La Crisis del Régimen Colonial en Venezuela Tomo II

The development of the coffee economy continues, of course with a contraction in investment. However, from 1815 and once the most intense phase of the war was over, the economy returned to its regular movement determined by international market and internal economic conditions. Likewise, the haciendas improved their sales accounts. That is, the war apparently has no lasting effects on the Venezuelan economy. To resume, it is true we cannot establish an accurate a correlation between the results of the accounting books of the Haciendas and the macroeconomic aggregates for now, but we can say that we find congruence between the performance of GDP and GDP per capita and the microeconomic level, represented by the haciendas analyzed. This is suggestive field of studies where it would be possible to make a more rigorous research with a larger sample, in a more extensive territory or including a longer period of time, which combined with appropriated methodologies, could help to establish the performance of Venezuela’s economy during the period treated in this section with a high degree of confidence. The demographic dimension of war is another important aspect because of its relationship with the economy. The casualties of civilians and military in the war are difficult to enumerate, but is not impossible to provide an overall estimate. Let's start by clarifying that figures of dead reported by modern historiography are of 300,000 people; the author Restrepo in his “Historia de la Revolución de Colombia” (History of Colombia’s Revolution) estimated 250,000 dead in Venezuela and Agustin Codazzi valued it at 200,000 deceased in the war of Independence, plus 62,000 in the Caracas’ earthquake of 1812 and in various epidemic diseases between 1818 and 1838. All of them look to us excessive, possibly increased to 85

enhance the heroic and mythic dimension of Independence. The armies that fought in Venezuela were numerically very modest and a very limited in firepower, with no large artillery train and the bloodiest battles occurred in 1811-1814.From those early years there were long parentheses between military campaigns, where both parties try to regain strength and organize their logistical and administrative lines. To evaluate losses in

population we started by estimating the military casualties;

for that purpose we analyzed 73 battles or combats from the total of 80 that occurred in the Venezuelan territory, including a couple fought in Colombia with extensive participation of Venezuelan troops. To make calculation we assume, based on available data, that between 95% and 98% of the troops in both sides (royalists and republicans) were composed mainly by Venezuelan until 1815. With the arrival of the expeditionary forces that year, commanded by Marshal Morillo, the percentage of Venezuelan militia was reduced to a 70%, as illustrated by the composition the Royal army before the Battle of Carabobo. We applied a death rate of 20%; this includes 11% deaths in combat, 22% of deaths caused by injuries and 66% by diseases, accidents, natural and otherwise. We arrived at this figures, using the historical experience of the Napoleonic armies in battle, the French army during the Crimean War and the work of Colonel T. N Dupuy52 (49). According to our calculations, the total Venezuelan military deaths (royalists and republicans) was 60,687 and if we include losses by guerrilla operations against and in favor of the Republic, made by Venezuelans along with other battles and a few naval operations, the figure would reach 65,000 deaths. It's a huge number, accounting for over 8% of the population in 1800, but we are far from the hundreds of thousands of casualties reported by patriotic historiography. Below there are a table and graphs with estimates obtained from the battles

52

. See: Rory Muir Tactics and The Experience of Battle in the Age of Napoleon. y Colonel T. N. Dupuy Numbers, Prediction and War.

86

TABLE 10 Venezuelan soldiers in service in Royal and Republican Units, Number of Battles and average participants.

Soldados Venezolanos en Servicio republicano y Realista, Número de Batallas y promedio de militares en las mismas entre 1811-1823

1811-1812

Cantidad de Batallas 5

Perdidas muertos venezolanos 5.738

Promedio ejercito Republicanos 3.140

Promedio ejercito realista 2.900

Soldados y Oficiales En Batallas Republicanos 15.700

Soldados y Oficiales en Batallas Realistas 14.500

1813-1815

37

37.217

1.843

3.289

68.191

121.693

1815-1816

7

1.589

622

1.000

4.354

7.000

1817-1819

15

9.947

1.864

2.874

27.960

43.110

1820-1823

9

6.196

2.364

2.553

21.276

22.977

Totales

73

60.687

1.967

2.523

143.562

184.194

Periodo

Fuente: Cálculos Propios de los datos de las Batallas de la Independencia tal como aparecen en Daniel Pilo. Un Breve Paseo por la Historia de Venezuela .Puede obtenerse en la Web en: http://www.auyantepui.com/historia/batallas.html.

87

Batallas en porcentajes combatidas en Venezuela entre 18111823 60 50 40 30

Serie1

20 10 0 1811-1812

1813-1815

1815-1816

1817-1819

1820-1823

Fuente: Cálculos Propios.

Perdidas en porcentajes de venezolanos patriotas y realistas entre 1811-1823 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00

Serie1

20,00 10,00 0,00 18111812

18131815

18151816

18171819

18201823

Fuente: Cálculos Propios.

As shown in the Table, the average of troops and officials per battle, both Republicans and Royalists was really small compared with the Napoleonic wars and the various wars of seventeenth and eighteenth century in Europe and approximately 50% of the clashes occur during 1813-1815. The war, in fact, lost intensity with the death Boves, at the Battle of Urica, on December 14, 1814. The 88

arrival of the Spanish expeditionary forces and of Morillo initiates phase of the regularization of the conflict. The deaths of Venezuelan soldiers, both on royalists and republicans sides, in combat or as a result of wounds and diseases, corresponds to 18.51% of those who participated in the battles studied, but if we include the naval fighting and other minor clashes, the figure is 19.8%. Another important aspect is the immense popularity of Boves, whose charismatic presence was able to attract a large number of Venezuelans from the castes to the royalist camp. It is worth remembering here that at its best moment, the army of the Liberator Simón Bolivar when was equipped and ready, including a core of British troops of 1.200 at the beginning of Carabobo campaign, had about 12.000 men, the equivalent of one Napoleonic division, and of them, about 5000 took part in the Battle of Carabobo, with 200 dead or wounded, according to the battle report sent by Bolivar to the Congress. The losses of the civilian population, if we include the Caracas´ earthquake, whose blast and damage affected even the west of the country including the city of Merida (in the Venezuela’s Andes) possibly reach the figure of 40.000, of which only 15.000 in the earthquake; the rest was due to executions and massacres made by both sides, migration to the East by the population of Caracas running from the advance of royalist troops of Boves, which caused heavy casualties in Caracas and neighbors towns, the possible increase in the homicide rate as a result of the groups of uncontrolled soldiers that roamed the villages and towns for food and other goods to steal. Ultimately, the losses for of the war of Independence may be in the order of 100,000 to 110,000 (59% military and 41% civilians) of which about 15,000 in the earthquake. About 60% of losses were concentrated in the years 1811-1814, when the economy suffered a sharp contraction. In the above figure it should be added a few thousand of Spaniards and royalist Creoles who left the country because of the war. This figure is far from those used today, but still extremely high, accounting for almost 14% of the population in 1810. Another issue worth to mention is the large number of Venezuelans who remain loyal the King and the institutions of the Spanish crown until the end. These Venezuelans are still today are invisible part of the story.

89

To conclude this section, it is important to mention the destructive sequel left by fighting on the wealth of the country. The national stock of capital was heavily concentrated in the haciendas estates, with its plantations of cocoa, coffee and other various fruits, seeds, infrastructure, tools, mills, etc., also in the Hatos and their herds of cattle, mules, horses, oxen, etc. That wasn´t exclusively an agricultural economy, but also based on livestock production. Then, about 1/4 of working population and a 1/4 of the national product originated in the livestock sector and this sector was the more damaged by war. Royalists and Republicans armies marched on horses, mules were exported to be interchanged by provisions, and cattle were the basic food for the troops. When the army commanded by General Paez moved toward the battle line included 2 or 3 horses per each mounted rider and huge herds of cattle as logistics support. The war was fought primarily using the livestock capital and this is sector suffered the most destruction (deplation) and not the agricultural sector that remained relatively safe despite embargoes and confiscations imposed by the two sides to finance the war. The livestock sector was essential in the colonial economic structure, as the same was largely the result of the linkage with the export economy of primary goods. According to Depons, who was an acute observer, in 1804 in Venezuela there were 1,200,000 cattle, 180,000 horse and 90,000 mules. Codazzi, meanwhile, suggested, based on reports of the time, that there were left 256,600 head of cattle by the end of the war in 1823. Losses produced by war, at prices of 1830, would amount to Bs 80,761,734, not including those caused by the potential production not achieved during those years of war. In short, an educated guess could allow us to deduct that half of the livestock of the country was consumed during the War of Independence.

90

Graph 17

GDP per capita dollars 1990( 1783-1829) 1.500,00 1.400,00 1.300,00 1.200,00 1.100,00 1.000,00 900,00 800,00 700,00 600,00 500,00

International 1990 Dollars

5 Per. Media Mobile (International 1990 Dollars)

Fuente: Cálculos Propios

Finally graph 17 shows the performance of GDP per capita for the period 17831829, whereas can be seen the economy begins to decline before the outbreak of war of Independence. We could say that the decision of the mantuanos aristocracy to separate themselves from the Crown of Spain was in part made on the belief that breaking the colonial bond would opened a new world of possibilities to give renew dynamism to the economy.

91

The Coffee Century. 1830-1925

In 1830 General Jose Antonio Paez founded the Republic of Venezuela with strong support from the so called “Conservative Oligarchy”. The main export product of the Venezuelan economy, at time of the Republic formation was already the coffee, even so it is important to note that cocoa and other goods were a significant part of the country's exportation and reached about 40% of the total. Agricultural exports will prevail until 1924-25, when exports of oil exceeded them. Let´s consider the evolution of Venezuelan coffee exports using as reference the North American market and comparing Venezuela with our neighbor Colombia53 (50), a country to which Venezuela is bounded by culture, customs and history. The first graph refers to exportation to the U.S. market from 1824 to 1912, nearly five years before the start of oil exploitation. This series includes, for the period 1824-1838, a few tons of Colombian coffee because Venezuela was part of Gran Colombia until 1830 and the Department of Agriculture of the United States included in their statistics practically until 1838 all the Venezuelan coffee under the name of “Colombia”.

53

Para la comparación entre la economia colombiana y venezolana ver Casetta Giovanni Colombia e Venezuela. Il Progresso Negato 1870-1990 Giunti Editore 1991

92

Graph 18 Export Venezuelan coffee to USA in ton.

35.000,00

Exportaciones de cafe venezolano a los EEUU en toneladas entre 1824-1912

30.000,00 25.000,00 20.000,00 15.000,00 10.000,00 5.000,00

1824 1826 1828 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912

0,00

Exports to the U.S. market grew rapidly from 1871-72, corresponding to the first globalization, thanks to good prices and to the maturity of investments in coffee crops. However, by the end of the century XIX Venezuelan coffee sales fell or stagnated as a consequence of a depression in prices, and even when these exports recovered, Venezuelan coffee production continued relatively stagnant because of the absence of new investment and the entry with force of Colombia into the market, country that along with Brazil were natural competitors of Venezuela.

93

Graph 18 Prices in dollar cents of Venezuelan coffee exports in USA.

Precios en Centavos de Dollar por libra de cafe venezolano exportado en Estados Unidos 25

20

15

10

5

Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos

The Venezuelan coffee economy grew relatively strong in the first half of the nineteenth century mainly between the early years of the Republic and the seventies of the nineteenth century. But especially from the second half of the nineteenth century, the maturing of investments made possible a rapid expansion of exports, which began to grow rapidly since 1872. As shown in the table below, according to Codazzi only for 1839, the hectares of farmland under production increased from about 43,000 hectares, of which 4,500 of coffee, to 270,000, of which 108,000 of coffee in 1875. In 1900, there were a total of around 450.000 hectares under production, of which 190,000 dedicated to coffee. Coffee production meant about half the land in production with about 250 million trees

94

1911

1908

1905

1902

1899

1896

1893

1890

1887

1884

1881

1878

1875

1872

1869

1866

1863

1860

1857

1854

1851

1848

1845

1842

1839

1836

1833

1830

1827

1824

0

distributed into 33.000 haciendas, by the first decade of the nineteenth century and between 50-70% of exports.

Graph 19 Hectares cultivated coffee and all other products.

Hectareas Cultivadas: cafe y otros productos agricolas 1839-1937 800.000,00 700.000,00 600.000,00 500.000,00 400.000,00 300.000,00 200.000,00 100.000,00 0,00 1839

1875

Hectareas agricolas en produccion

1884

1900

1937

Hectareas de cafe en produccion

Fuente: Cálculos propios en base a datos de Agustín Codazzi e Izard Estadísticas Históricas Source; Author´s calculation based on data from Historical Statiscs by Izard Codazzi and Agustín

In the years from 1900-1937 the discovery and exploitation of oil produced a fundamental change in the Venezuelan economy and this could suggest that the oil activities sacked agricultural exports and therefore the coffee economy. Although it is our impression that the coffee economy was already in full decline before the arrival of black gold, because of the lack of investment, rudimentary technology and least but not last the expansion production and exportation of Colombian coffee, the main competitor of Venezuelan coffee. Hence the exploitation of oil 95

accelerated the irreversible crisis in the coffee sector replacing it as the main primary commodity exports. In this regard, it can be seen in Graph 20 the sales of Venezuelan and Colombian coffee in the U.S. market and the overall production and exports.

Graph 20 Exports of Venezuelan and Colombian coffee to USA in pounds

Exportacion de Cafe colombiano y venezolano hacia el mercado norteamericano en libras 1843-1912 80.000.000 70.000.000 60.000.000 50.000.000 40.000.000 30.000.000 20.000.000 10.000.000 0

venezuela

Colombia

Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos

As we can see, using statistics from the Agriculture Department of the U.S. There was a rapid increase in imports of Colombia coffee, especially from late nineteenth century. By 1912, with the movement’s characteristics of commodities, Colombia surpassed the Venezuela’s coffee exports to US. Colombian exports in 1912 were 62 million of pounds to 47 of Venezuela. Also there is a second important factor: the price per pound of Colombian coffee tended to become cheaper, with respect to Venezuela’s, this is especially true since during the late nineteenth century. In 96

1912 a pound of Colombian coffee exported to the United States cost on average 10.9 cents per pound and the Venezuelan, around 14. Was this difference because of the quality? Possibly some Venezuelan coffee productions were far better than the best Colombian coffee, but the basic element of this difference can be traced to the different levels of productivity and competitiveness and also to the land tenure structure. However, this last factor should not be over-emphasize, because most of Venezuelan coffee was produced in the Andes and land tenure in this area was quite similar to the Colombian, distributed in small and medium production units.

Graph 21 Prices of Venezuelan and Colombian Coffee in dollar cents USA market

Precios del cafe colombiano y venezolano en el mercado norteamericano en centavos de dolar 1843-1912 25 20 15 10 5 1843 1845 1847 1849 1851 1853 1855 1857 1859 1861 1863 1865 1867 1869 1871 1873 1875 1877 1879 1881 1883 1885 1887 1889 1891 1893 1895 1897 1899 1901 1903 1905 1907 1909 1911

0

Venezuela

Colombia

Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos The Colombian coffee opens its way at the expense of Venezuelan production not only in the United States; production and exports from Colombia increased at a much faster rate since the end of the nineteenth century, although starting from a far more modest basis. Tables below show both the average production of Venezuela and Colombia, during the period from 1881 to 1925. For the last half of the series, Colombia produced twice Venezuelan coffee, while in the first five years (1881-1885) it was only an 18% of the Venezuela’s production. Also, we are including a Graph with the exports of both countries between1905-25and 97

Venezuelan coffee prices compared to average prices of coffee imported by the United Sates. Table 12 Coffee Productions in Tons Cuadro 12 1881-85 1886-90 1891-95 1896-00 1901-05 1906-10 1911-15 1916-20 1921-25

Producción de Café en Ton. Colombia Índice Venezuela Índice 6,47 100,00 36,67 100,00 10,78 166,62 35,98 98,12 19,51 301,55 42,72 116,50 26,78 413,91 51,48 140,39 35,05 541,73 43,2 117,81 37,06 572,80 43,42 118,41 56,96 880,37 60,84 165,91 78,42 1212,06 60,54 165,09 127,62 1972,49 59,4 161,99

Fuente: Smith y Topik The Global Coffee economy Source: Smith and Topik. The Global Coffee economy

98

Graph 22 Exports of Venezuela and Colombia en 1000 of TON

Exportaciones de Venezuela y Colombia en miles de Toneladas 1905-1925 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 Colombia

Venezuela

Fuente: Smith y Topik The Global Coffee economy

99

Graph 23 Prices of Venezuelan coffee and USA coffee imports

Precios en Bs del cafe venezolano y precios en centavos de dolar de las importaciones de cafe en los EEUU 1830-1935 25

3,00 2,50

20

2,00 15 1,50 10 1,00 5

0,50 0,00 1830 1833 1836 1839 1842 1845 1848 1851 1854 1857 1860 1863 1866 1869 1872 1875 1878 1881 1884 1887 1890 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1908 1911 1914 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935

0

Precio average de cafe importado por EEUU

Precios del cafe venezolano

Fuente: Departamento de Agricultura de los Estados Unidos, Izard Estadísticas Históricas de Venezuela y Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944

The Venezuelan economy was not able to take full advantage of the first globalization, occurred between 1870 and 1913 and stimulated by a reduction in transport costs and by the industrialization of Europe and the United States. Below table 13 shows the performance of Venezuelan external sector, taken from a book of great interest and relevance “Tropical Development 1880-1913” edited by W. Arthur Lewis in the far 1970, which shows the evolution of the exports of tropical economies between 1883 and 1913. If excluding the West Indies (and in this case does not include Cuba), Venezuela performance was very modest.

100

Table 13 Cuadro 13 Índice del valor de las exportaciones 1913 Asia África Tailandia 539 Occidental Ceilán 523 Central Indochina 426 Oriental Indonesia 311 Egipto India 235 Filipinas 212

1883=100 548 498 372 257

América Ecuador Brasil México Colombia América Central Perú Venezuela Antillas

Source: Tropical Development 1880-1913 edited by W. Arthur Lewis.

As shown, Venezuela had a discreet performance; if we average the index for all the economies of the tropical America, including Venezuela, it is 295, twice the Venezuela´s index. If we exclude Venezuela and the West Indies from the average, the factor reaches 2.38. This is a reliable proof of the deficient administration of the Venezuelan economy, at a time in which, the external sector of the Latin America countries considered in the table grew at a similar rate than World economy. Exports per capita remained stable between 1830 and 1870, increasing thereafter until the last decade of the nineteenth century specifically until 1891, then declined sharply and begin to recover only from 1912. The volume of coffee exports in kilos per capita, by contrast, remained relatively unchanged between 1870 and 1924. We may conclude by affirming that Venezuela didn´t take a great advantage of World economic growth in the first globalization; also it has not been able to properly manage their natural resources and profit during the second globalization. In both cases (first with the government of Cipriano Castro by the end of the nineteen century and now with the Bolivarian Revolution) the country assumed an introverted, nationalistic and statist inclination, fearful of losing national sovereignty.

101

439 373 352 334 298 297 146 118

Graph 24 and 25 Coffe Export Per Capita 1872-1935 Kilos

35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0,000 1872

1877

1882

1887

1892

1897

1902

1907

1912

Coffe Export Per capita

1917

1922

1927

1932

Exportaciones per capita en Bs 1830-1924 120 100 80 60 40 20 1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924

0

Serie1

6 Per. Media Mobile (Serie1)

Fuente: Para ambos gráficos 24 y 25, cálculos propios, Izard Estadísticas Históricas y Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944.

While it is important to note that from 1917 begins the era of oil, we have to remember that it was not until 1924-1925 that oil exports exceed traditional exportations. Within seven years, Venezuela became one of the largest producers and exporters of hydrocarbons. This didn’t mean that agricultural exports disappeared from day to night, as seems implied by the Venezuelan historiography. Yet in 1936 half of the workforce was employed in agriculture and exports of major commodities such as coffee and cocoa, at least in volumes, 102

remained relatively stable. However, agriculture as main economic activity initiated a cycle of irreversible decline. .Graph 26: Agricultural and oil exports in current Bs Exportaciones Agricolas y Petroleras en Bs 1905-1924 400.000.000,00 300.000.000,00 200.000.000,00 100.000.000,00 0,00

Petroleo

Agricultura

Fuente Cálculos Propios y Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944 Source: Calculations and Fast Equity Finance of Venezuela 1830-1944.

The economic transition that began in 1917 with the production of the first oil wells

was completed in the early forties of the twentieth century, when the

structure of the Venezuela´s economy was that of an archetypal economy based on oil production; the exportation of “the black gold” account for 90-95% of the total. In 1917 the country began a transition process of extremely rapid urbanization; the middle class became a social influential group in the framework of the old rural society and new political ideas and concerns spread in all areas of national life. The generation of ‘28” was born in the shadow of oil. This group of university students from different social origins will become the core of civil and democratic leadership that will govern the country from 1945 and again after the setback produced by the Marcos Perez Jimenez military dictatorship interlude from 1948-1958. One of them, Don Romulo Betancourt is considered as the father of Democracy. From their ranks emerged the leaders of the mass political parties, as the social-democratic Acción Democrática (Democratic Action). In these years, the yellow liberalism as a political banner lost its force in Venezuela and was replaced by the social-democratic, social-Christian and the Marxism ideologies. The generation of ‘28 intended, matured and finally reached, after countless 103

adventures, the realization of a democratic political system, first as a radical experiment during 1945-1948, and after 1959, as a concrete system of political and social conciliation. This generation is a byproduct of the changes that the oil wealth brought to society from the very beginning; it surface in the transition between a rural agricultural and urban oil producing society. This is the particular case where the abundance of natural resources didn´t act as an evil politics destabilizing agent, but rather bought a profound reconsideration of the national life and a big drive in certain factions of the elites in power, but above all, in the new socio-economic factors materialized under the expansion of oil revenues determined to overcome the Venezuela of the old military caudillo and rural backwardness. The modernization of the country and its integration in the western world on equal footing was now a concrete possibility, thanks to oil wealth. Civilian leadership will assume the challenge of modernizing the country from 1959. As we did for the exports, we present data with reference to imports per capita, which generally follows a similar trend to the exports. Graph 27 Imports per capita in Bs.

Importaciones per capita en BS 1830-1924 120,00 100,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 1830 1833 1836 1839 1842 1845 1848 1851 1854 1857 1860 1863 1866 1869 1872 1875 1878 1881 1884 1887 1890 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1908 1911 1914 1917 1920 1923

0,00

importaciones en BS

6 Per. Media Mobile (importaciones en BS)

Fuente Cálculos Propios y Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944

104

On the other hand, it may be interesting to have a look at some important factors such as import of capital goods, consumption of modern energy products and the correlation between railways’ income and the product. These elements could be helpful to understand the evolution of Venezuela´s economy. Imports of capital goods from the United States, according to US statistics for the period 1895-1906 are presented in the table 14. With these data of US import along with those from Germany and England, we may infer to infer the behavior of investment during those years and the fluctuation of the product. In order to simplify the reading, we include only imports originating in the United States. The trend shown here is roughly the one corresponding to the period in examination, which was of deep economic downturn, corresponding with the last five years of nineteenth and first decade of the twentieth centuries. We use data from import of agriculture implements and manufactured goods with steel or iron. Table 14

Cuadro 14

1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906

Agricultural Implements dólares 2506 6113 2112 909 1184 2652 3644 1378 1386 1100 2010 2181

Iron and Steel Manufacture dólares 516.071 471.437 441.310 241.490 305.998 227.287 256.001 285.823 136.677 322.506 393.440 500.533

TOTAL en dólares 518.577 477.550 443.422 242.399 307.182 229.939 259.645 287.201 138.063 323.606 395.450 502.714

Fuente: Export Manufactures from the United States and their distribution by Articles and Countries 1800-1906

105

No less important is the consumption of modern energy (fossil fuel and hydroelectric) and an indicator of economic modernization and growth. For this purpose we took the data from the working paper of Yanez, Mar Rubio and Carrera: “Economic Modernization in Latin America and the Caribbean between1890 and 1925: A view from the energy consumption”. We only took data about Venezuela concerning of about the growth of modern of energy consumption in tons oil equivalents (TOE) per 1000 inhabitants, for the periods 1890-1913, 1913-1925 and 1890-1925 and compared it with the behavior of the product and the GDP per capita in 1984 prices. The results are shown in the table 15 below. As it can be seen from the table, the behavior of Venezuelan macroeconomic variables converge with it evolution of modern energy consumption, which otherwise was one of the lowest in Latin America and the Caribbean. Table 15 Cuadro 15

1890-1913 1913-1925 1890-1925

Pib per cápita PIB Tasa anual del crecimiento de Tasa anual de crecimiento Tasa anual de crecimiento consumo de energía moderna -1,81 -1,1 -1,3 2,21 2,86 5,6 -0,45 0,24 1

Fuente: Yáñez, Mar Rubio Carreras: Economic Modernization in Latin America and the Caribbean between1890 and 1925 y calculos propios.

In the 23 years comprising the period 1890-1913, the income per capita, according to our calculations felt by -1.81% and the GDP by -1.1%, both on an annual basis, while the evolution of consumption energy also decreases but to a lesser extent, 1.3% on annual basis. For the period 1913-1925 this process is reversed and the modern energy begins to grow, as well as the GDP and the GDP per capita. It should be noted that oil production begins in 1917, being in that year of 1 million barrels/year and in 1925 reached 20 million barrels. Probably the start of oil exploitation had a significant impact on energy consumption and generally on the economic growth that is concentrated in 12 years (1913-1925). 106

It also seems appropriate to use the economic performance of the railroad companies

(income)

and

GDP

trend,

both

in

current

terms.

To

this

purpose we have chosen only 43 observations, from 1883 to 1925. We have to remember that the discovery of oil led to a neglect or disinterest in continuing the development of railways, which in fact had not achieved a great breakthrough in Venezuela if it is compared to the rest of Latin America. In a very short time, thanks to low prices of fuel, the abundance of asphalt and the ability to import vehicles of all kinds, Venezuela began a major program of road construction and transportation of goods, migrating from the droves of mules and rail to the transport on wheels. To perform the exercise, we took as dependent variable the income of the railroad companies and as the independent variable the data of GDP proposed by the series in this work. The data are as follows:

Ingresos en miles PIB en Bolívares de Bolívares Corrientes años 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899

Ferrocarriles 441 1127 2348 1863 2305 3365 4701 4913 5925 4579 5970 6523 8371 9324 8253 7707 6779

393.512.140,55 434.993.368,41 425.477.998,37 443.430.390,23 419.039.354,11 428.296.070,43 435.249.100,52 450.366.286,42 432.264.918,09 407.718.097,38 458.041.878,62 453.208.573,35 505.614.051,99 465.069.251,84 504.628.839,65 517.193.606,99 436.625.024,17

107

1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925

7313 7311 6821 8466 9096 8163 8934 8994 8919 8781 9439 10790 12985 13266 12732 12747 12938 14344 13318 16410 18237 16724 16160 16657 18442 20474

467.383.022,85 469.014.447,91 458.037.887,82 511.050.861,24 541.811.392,62 577.372.405,85 600.521.333,56 605.421.615,28 636.876.066,66 665.476.038,31 699.318.975,84 700.086.469,24 798.033.513,68 852.779.885,11 994.634.951,98 1.057.490.779,07 1.059.804.059,08 1.150.379.503,64 1.275.097.494,73 1.458.318.386,12 1.531.629.985,85 1.178.953.200,32 1.181.382.375,16 1.235.726.763,23 1.380.732.360,47 1.524.654.029,21

Fuente Docutren Estadisticas Historicas y calculos propios

Resumen Estadísticas de la regresión Coeficiente de correlación múltiple Coeficiente de determinación R^2 R^2 ajustado Error típico Observaciones

0,921894018 0,849888581 0,846227327 1968,607068 43

108

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA Grados de libertad 1 41 42

Suma de cuadrados 899601560,6 158891965,3 1058493526

Coeficientes 4,574596279 1,28995E-05

Error típico 684,1515703 8,46657E-07

Regresión Residuos Total

Intercepción Variable X 1

Promedio de los cuadrados 899601560,6 3875413,789

F 232,1304536

Estadístico t 0,006686525 15,23582796

Probabilidad 0,994697395 1,74958E-18

Valor crítico de F 1,74958E-18

Inferior 95% Superior 95% -1377,09753 1386,246723 1,11897E-05 1,46094E-05

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0% -1377,09753 1386,246723 1,11897E-05 1,46094E-05

Our interest is mainly focused on the statistics of the regression, which allow us to conclude that there is an association or relationship between the earnings of the railways and the estimate GDP proposed in the series. The three previous observations (imports of capital goods, power consumption, and the relationship between railway economic performance and GDP) are useful for evaluating the precision of the estimates and to understand better the economic evolution of Venezuela during these years. Below we are showing the graphs correspond to the GDP and GDP per capita for the period 1830 -1925.

109

Graph 28 GDP millions Bolivares prices 1984 : 1830-1925 14.000,00 12.000,00 10.000,00 8.000,00 6.000,00 4.000,00 2.000,00 0,00 18301835184018451850185518601865187018751880188518901895190019051910191519201925 PIB en BS de 1984

Graph 29 GDP per capita Bolivares prices 1984 : 1830-1925 6.000,00 5.000,00 4.000,00 3.000,00 2.000,00 1.000,00 0,00 1830 1835 18401845 1850 18551860 1865 18701875 1880 188518901895 1900 19051910 1915 19201925

Fuente: Para graficos 28 y 29 calculos propios. .

The Venezuelan economy during the nineteenth century did not achieve sustained progress; the growth accomplished, was scarce and reversed as soon as 110

conditions on which it was based evaporate. The GDP growth during the Guzmancismo and a few years later, was the product of positive factors, all of temporary nature, among which the rise in coffee prices, investment in railways and public building, but no less important the long period of internal peace, of political stability and of an institutional modernization, atypical during the nineteenth century Venezuela. Income remained around $ 1000 (1990 dollars), from 1830 to 1900, that means, just at the level of subsistence with fluctuation around this figure54. By the end of nineteenth century the country was again involved in the usual internal wars and revolutions led by “caudillos”. The nineteenth century was a disaster from the economic point of view; the per capita income in 1900 was slightly lower than 1830 and growth prospects were virtually none, half of the population had or was exposed to Malaria and Chagas’ disease. Institutional disorder and civil war took over the country again after Guzman's departure from power. During the administration of Cipriano Castro (1898-1908), decline of the country accelerated. The coffee industry and overall economy were stagnant and public finances a total disorder, as a result of costs incurred by war, among them the Libertadora Revolution led by an alliance of anti-Castro leaders that produced 40,000 dead. The government of General Castro also faced conflict of every nature virtually with all the world powers of that time, the Venezuelan coast were blocked by England and Germany during 1902 and the country declared it insolvent and defaulted on foreign debt. In 1906 General Castro broke relations with France and in 1908 with the United States, both because of disagreements and disputes with companies from those nations that were established in national territory. This behavior minimized the attraction of capital and foreign investment. The government of General Juan Vicente Gomez, (who gave a coup when Castro left the country for medical reasons), imposed order and social peace and his Finance Minister, Dr. Roman Cardenas, began to reorganize public finances by reducing dependence on customs revenue, balancing the 54

The data presented in the series for the pre-oil period, are in agreement with the proposal of what could be the line poverty or subsistence. See Ancient and Pre-Modern GDP in the Roman Empire and Early Modern Europe Elio Lo Cascio & Paolo Malanima, 2011 This Article is of high great methodology interest to understand Latin American agricultural economies.

111

national budget and canceling the external and internal debt. Possibly this was the only economic achievement before the discovery of oil. In fact, the principle of balanced public budgets and surpluses in the annual closing of the national treasury had a long life and became a dogma in the management of public finances in Venezuela until the seventies of the twentieth century, when the first boom in oil prices triggered again disorder in fiscal policy, situation that endures to this day. But prudence in the controlling of Public Finance was not

enough to overcome the impasse which suffered the Venezuelan

economy, which continued to languishing and was also now subject to looting by General Juan Vicente Gomez, his family and close associated, who ran the national economy as its particular pecuniary. General Gomez, during the 28 years of his rule from 1908 to 1935 accumulated a fortune of 115 million Bolívares, about 0.6% of GDP in 1935. As a positive element, during those years, the cycle of civil wars was closed and “caudillismo” was defeated militarily and politically. Gomez governed the country with an iron hand, concluded the process of building a Central State initiated during the administration of Castro, and monopolizes the use of violence by founding the National Armed Forces, that replaced the regional montoneras ( local armies) groups of nineteenth century exercised an strict control over the country. To conclude this section, we present a very rough approximation of what could have been the country's wealth, using for this purpose the method the inventory invested capital in various economic activities, adding an approximate value of the residential private property and public buildings. Before the arrival of Keynesianism and the calculation of income, economic power of a nation was measured and compared in terms of wealth55 .World Bank and Credit Suisse had recently made some estimates regarding private wealth and national wealth56 . What we did was to extend and revise the estimates of wealth developed in 1918 by the Ministry of Development (Fomento). Thereon, we consider including a much 55

52 For the inventory of methods, see Corrado Gini in “L'ammontare and the Composizione della Richezza delle Nazioni” UTET Torino 1962. 56 The Changing Wealth of Nations Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium. World Bank 2011,Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2011

112

larger estimate of agricultural sector, that was carried out by Ministry of Development, which was limited to assessing the capital invested in 8 products (Coffee, Cocoa, Balata, Rubber, Coconuts, Bananas, Cotton and Sugarcane). Also, we compared it with data published in the work of J. C. Stamp: “The Wealth and Income of the Chief Power”, published in 1919, which in some cases, used the same methodology used by the Ministry of Development. In order to make the data comparable, we expressed them in UK Pounds and Venezuelan Bolivares. Needless to say this is a simple approach, which aims to provide a somewhat rudimentary notion of country´s wealth. It is important to underline that a significant part of the country's wealth was concentrated in hands of foreign investors, as in the case of railways, public services, fluvial transportation, mining, petroleum and asphalt. Data from the private housing patrimony were calculated based on 412,063 units, the product of dividing the population of 1919 on an average of 6.5 persons per unit, this medium was obtained from censuses (1873-1936). We assigned a value of 5000 bolivars, or $961 (currency exchange of the time), equivalent of 10 years' wages of a farm worker. This can be considered extremely low pricing, but the vast majority of homes in Venezuela were huts built with adobe, thatched or straw roofs and like furniture had a few hammocks and stools. The so called casonas or big houses were few and concentrated in the central areas of cities or towns. The public buildings are mostly those built by Guzman Blanco goverment, and valued according to prices of 1919.The inventory of products corresponds to 6 months of imports. In this analysis we have not included the financial wealth, by the absence of sufficient data on the origin of the holders of the national debt. Because the lack of data on mortgages or liabilities of various sectors we could only calculate the gross wealth. Cuadro 17 1918-1919

Bolívares

Libras esterlinas Bolívares

Riqueza

per cápita

Libras Per cápita

Agricultura

367.113.043,00

14.539.130,42

137,06

5,43

Pecuaria

156.000.000,00

6.178.217,82

58,24

2,31

113

Industrias y Servicios Públicos Electricidad, Telégrafos etc.

360.000.000,00

14.257.425,74

134,41

5,32

Comercio

400.000.000,00

15.841.584,16

149,34

5,91

Productos Forestales

10.400.000,00

411.881,19

3,88

0,15

Minas Oro, Cobre y otros

23.000.000,00

910.891,09

8,59

0,34

Ferrocarriles

208.948.125,00

8.275.173,27

78,01

3,09

Transporte Marítimo Fluvial y Cabotaje

20.150.000,00

798.019,80

7,52

0,30

42.481.230,00

1.682.424,95

15,86

0,63

2.060.315.000,00

81.596.633,66

769,23

30,46

Edificaciones Publicas

82.356.435,00

3.261.640,99

30,75

1,22

Inventario Productos Importados

93.015.000,00

3.683.762,38

34,73

1,38

3.823.778.833,00

151.436.785,47

1.427,63

56,54

Petróleo y Asfalto

Viviendas privadas

Total

Fuente: Cálculos propios, Ministerio de Fomento, Goiticoa Veloz Venezuela 1919 y The Wealth and Income of the Chief Power. Wealth in Pounds

Cuadro 18 Millones de Libras Gran Bretaña 14500 Estados Unidos 42000 Alemania 16550

Riqueza per cápita en libras 318 424 244

114

Francia Italia Austria Hungría España Bélgica Holanda Rusia Suecia Noruega Dinamarca Suiza Australia Canadá Japón Argentina Venezuela

12000 4480 6200 2940 1200 1050 12000 940 220 500 800 1530 2285 2400 2400 151

303 128 121 144 157 167 85 168 90 176 205 318 300 44 340 57

Fuente: Stamp. The Wealth and Income of the Chief Power.

For the specific case of Venezuela the product in 1919 was 1,458.31 million of Bolivars and wealth of 3.823, 77 million of current bolivars. The wealth per capita was 1428 bolivars and the income 541 bolivars. That means that the accumulated wealth was around 3 times higher than the product. Finally and not least, we show a graph about the ratio of public debt/GDP from 1838-2005. It shows as the country's finances remained in order from the time of Juan Vicente Gómez to the first government of Carlos Andres Perez (period 1973-78), which corresponds with the period of greater expansion of the economy. If we look more closely at the ratio debt/GDP we could see the moments of greatest growth in the Republic are those periods where finance are healthy and the ratio debt/GDP is low or shows a tendency to decrease, and this was during the period of Guzman Blanco (18701888). By contrast, the fiscal mess and rising of public debt cause a contraction or stagnation of the economy. Although not included in the graph, total public debt should be around 50% of the GDP in 2011 and increasing fast. Still this is an issue that needs to be study in detail, here we were limited to make an observation and display the data in the anne 115

Graph 30 Ratio Debt/ GDP in % 180 160

Guerra Federal

Deuda/ PIB 1838-2005 en Porcentaje

140

Jaime Lusinchi 1983-88

120

Gobierno Guzman Blanco 1870-88

100 80 60 40 20

Fin del Monagato Gobierno Castro 1898-1908

Carlos Andres Perez 1974-78

Gobierno Gomez 1908-35 1838 1843 1846 1854 1857 1862 1868 1872 1886 1888 1890 1894 1896 1898 1901 1903 1905 1908 1910 1920 1930 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

0

Fuentes Cálculos Propios, Memorias de Hacienda varios años, La Economía venezolana en los últimos 35 años BCV 1976, Hernández María F, et al. Determinantes y Vulnerabilidad de la Deuda Pública en Venezuela 1970-2005 BCV.

116

Oil Time

The economy received by Juan Vicente Gomez was not very different from the bucolic one of Jose Antonio Paez time, when he founded the Republic of Venezuela. The major problem faced by the government of General Gomez was to consolidate public finances. The Finance Minister, Roman Cardenas, who heads that office from 1913 to 1922, made a major fiscal reform aimed to reduce dependence on income from customs rents. In 1914, about 75% of incomes came from the payment of customs rights. By 1921, the internal incomes (no customs incomes) reached the 50%; and by 1930 year of the centenary of the death of the Liberator Simón Bolivar, the foreign debt is canceled entirety. Moreover, the national economy began to recover slowly from 1912, helped by the improvement of coffee prices and by the social peace. However, in general terms the Venezuelan economy did not have the means to undertake a sustained growth over time and the crash between late nineteenth century and during the Castro government was staggering. Between 1908 and 1917 both GDP and income had a positive evolution, but far from the peaks reached between 1884 and 1890. Table 19 Cuadro 19 PIB Millones de Bs 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917

Pib per cápita Bs de 1984

7.787,85 7.859,39 7.817,84 7.506,28 8.101,70 8.351,31 9.653,69 9.733,24 9.136,26 9.539,17

3.103,70 3.111,23 3.074,19 2.932,17 3.143,98 3.219,70 3.697,69 3.704,15 3.454,72 3.584,14

Fuente. Cálculos propios 117

That was the real condition of the Venezuelan economy when oil appeared on the horizon. Overall, that was a stationary economy, in the classical sense, without possibilities of capital accumulation and growth. Exploitation of oil completely changed the economic landscape of the country and stimulated investment and the economic growth, as shown in the graphs below, causing a relatively rapid and profound break with the past. In the graph are shown the estimates of gross investment

(public

and

private),

following

the

patterns

of

Venezuelan

historiography, from 1870 to 1935.

Graph 31 Gross Investments by Historical Period Inversiones Brutas publicas y privadas por periodo Historico en Bs corrientes 4.000.000.000,00

Gomecismo 3.500.000.000,00 3.000.000.000,00 2.500.000.000,00 2.000.000.000,00 1.500.000.000,00

liberalismo

1.000.000.000,00

Castrismo

500.000.000,00 0,00 Serie1

1870-1898 901.859.905,74

1898-1908 192.568.465,89

1908-1935 3.522.780.641,04

Fuente: Cálculos propios y Anuarios Estadísticos de Fomento

118

Foreign investment, the product and the per capita income per capita took off rapidly as production and export of oil grew. During the time of the dictatorship General Gomez the product increased by a factor of 3 and the income by 2 and real consumption grew by 40%. These figures alone contradict the view that the Venezuelan economy was expiring when the Dictator died in December 1935. Rather, those years can be defined as transitional juncture between the agricultural and oil economy. With respect to the transfer of Venezuelan subsoil to international companies under adverse condition, an obsessive and constant criticisms of historiography in Venezuela, we could also argued how a small country like Venezuela (with 90% of the illiterate, 80% living in rural areas, without capital, and only a few Universities with a total of 1000 students) could had manage by itself the complex oil business, without the initial use of capital investment and foreign technology. It is a half true that Gomez facilitated excessively the operations of oil companies, especially in tax and legal aspects as new research on the topic shows57, but is also an irrefutable fact that once Venezuelans learned the management and techniques of the oil business, the balance was mostly beneficial to the interests of the country. Table 20

Cuadro 20

1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 57

PIB Millones de Bs 7.787,85 7.859,39 7.817,84 7.506,28 8.101,70 8.351,31 9.653,69

Pib per cápita Bs de 1984 3.103,70 3.111,23 3.074,19 2.932,17 3.143,98 3.219,70 3.697,69

Pib per cápita dólares 1990 924,35 926,59 915,56 873,26 936,34 958,90 1.101,25

See the Book Mac Beth Juan Vicente Gomez and the oil companies in Venezuela 1908-1935

119

1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935

9.733,24 9.136,26 9.539,17 9.973,77 9.715,28 9.475,30 9.221,76 10.042,92 10.643,45 11.056,18 11.710,70 12.504,15 12.937,69 15.345,46 16.045,37 16.234,57 16.428,32 15.107,89 17.114,26 18.142,45 21.884,47

3.704,15 3.454,72 3.584,14 3.723,76 3.604,48 3.493,51 3.378,96 3.657,16 3.852,11 3.977,14 4.187,10 4.443,34 4.509,24 5.247,79 5.385,81 5.350,50 5.317,92 4.804,91 5.349,41 5.574,91 6.612,97

1.103,18 1.028,89 1.067,43 1.109,01 1.073,49 1.040,44 1.006,32 1.089,18 1.147,24 1.184,48 1.247,01 1.323,32 1.342,95 1.562,90 1.604,01 1.593,49 1.583,79 1.431,00 1.593,17 1.660,33 1.969,48

During the twentieth century Venezuelan oil economy will exhibit three stages or phases in its evolution. The first, of fast growth with a great expansion of public spending and investment that we may designate as Chinese growth pattern, from about 1920 to 1958, Indeed this rapid growth was a result of the initial shock caused by oil revenues in an economy with a low standard of living and income. A second period of stable growth, from 1958 until 1978, characteristic of a mature oil economy in an situation of a well-adjusted economy with a prudent fiscal policy, low inflation and a strong currency linked to the dollar through oil; and the third and last phase from 1978 to this day, marked by decline and we could describe as post-oil period or collapse of the rent-depending capitalism. While in each of the phases there are peaks and valleys, depending on the fluctuation of oil prices and production volumes, our focus is on the trend or direction, displayed by the evolution of income and output. The graphs 31-39, correspond to each of the 120

different phases. Both volume productions and prices, added to the tax applicable to oil exploitation greatly influence the evolution of Venezuelan economy during the twentieth century.

Graph 32 and 33 Grafico 32 y33

GDP millions prices 1984: 1920-1958

160.000,00 140.000,00 120.000,00 100.000,00 80.000,00 60.000,00 40.000,00 20.000,00 0,00

1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958

Fuente: Cálculos propios.

121

GDP per capita Bs prices 1984: 1920-1958 25.000,00 20.000,00 15.000,00 10.000,00 5.000,00 0,00 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958

Fuente: Cálculos propios Grafico 34, 35, 36, 37,39 y 40

GDP Millions prices 1984: 1959-1978 500.000,00 450.000,00 400.000,00 350.000,00 300.000,00 250.000,00 200.000,00 150.000,00 100.000,00 50.000,00 0,00 19591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978

Fuente: Cálculos propios

122

40.000,00

GDP per capita prices 1984 : 1959-1978

30.000,00

20.000,00

10.000,00

0,00

GDP millions prices 1984: 1979-2009 900.000,00 800.000,00 700.000,00 600.000,00 500.000,00 400.000,00 300.000,00 200.000,00 100.000,00 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0,00

Fuente: Cálculos propios

123

1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

GDP per capita Bs prices 1984: 1979-2009

35.000,00

30.000,00

25.000,00

20.000,00

15.000,00

10.000,00

5.000,00

0,00

OIL prices Venezuelan Basket 1936-2009 dollars 1990

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Fuente: OPEP, Baptista, Base Cuantitativas y cálculos propios

124

100

OIL prices venezuelan basket 1936-2009 current dollars

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Fuente: OPEP, Baptista, Base Cuantitativas y cálculos propios

Between 1920 and 1958 the product multiplied by 16 times and the income by 6. For the period 1959-1978 the increase was 2.8 times and 0.447, respectively (that means the income increases by 45%). In the final phase, from 1979 to 2009, the product multiplied by 1.75 times and the GDP per capita contracted, being in 2009 approximately 10% lower than the income of 1979. This occurred despite the fact that between 2000 and 2008 Venezuela had the highest oil prices in its history. The direction or trend of the income, since the late seventies, is to decline slowly or remain stagnant. The oil prices produce very irregular positive growth, depending on the duration and the rate of the rising prices. But as soon as the cost to sustain the social system (with many new clientelistic relationships or with the

old

repowered, leading with rampant corruption, nepotism, waste of public money, expansion of bureaucracy and massive outflow capital), is exceeded revenues from increases in oil prices, the economy takes the path of stagnation until the next oil boom. This is a cycle monotonously repeated from the first oil boom of 1973 until now. Only in 1989 with the election of Carlos Andres Perez, a second time as 125

President of Venezuela, there was a serious attempt for breaking the vicious circle in which the Venezuelan economy had entered since the late seventies. The economic adjustment package was much more than a simple set of measures agreed with the International Monetary Fund, it was also a methodical attempt to free the economy from dependence on oil revenues. The experiment ended almost in its birth, when a protest broke out in the “dormitory city” of Guarenas (just outside Caracas) against the increase of mass transportation tickets as the result of the price rising of gasoline. It is worth emphasizing, that surface public transportation service is a private enterprise and it is in the hands of small businessmen, much of them from European origins. Those owners of transport, unconsciously, raised the ticket prices well above those recommended by National Government. On 27 February, which was the payday for workers, people did not have money to pay the increment to travel to their work places in the city and collect their payments, and the result was a violent confrontation between operator and user, with many busses burned and destroyed. The images were transmitted live on TV and dynamics of protest swept through Caracas as the results of those images, primarily in the popular sectors (slums) of Petare, Catia, la Vega etc. Unlike Guarenas, in Caracas the crowd objective was not just to sack the supermarkets for groceries or to get on fire transport units, but also to sack shopping centers, appliance and liquor stores. That was an act of widespread transgression against the social and political scheme. Bands of professional robbers infiltrated the population protest and directed or incited them to take advantage of the situation to seizing (steal) goods that could not otherwise acquire. Therefore, the revolt had not a previously revolutionary anti-neoliberal nature or origin, as the left journalist and academics have read and narrated these events. These stories are part of the myths created retrospectively by the Venezuelan left. On 27 February there was a mix of legitimate protest initiated by Guarenas workers and acts of massive shoplifting, whose character was more or less spontaneous. Also, in that period there were important factors that created a convoluted atmosphere, as the elimination of administered prices, food shortages, resulting from hoarding of commodities by the private sector to profit from the expected rise 126

in prices, all these issues caused a definitive rupture of the legitimate bond among the political system and the low income population, the new economic policy ended abruptly, without any compensation policy, the protection enjoyed by the poorest socioeconomic strata. The conciliation pact between the Venezuelan elites58 that facilitated the establishment of democracy included channeling the social demand of population throughout union trades and grass root organization controlled by political parties, all of these structures failed , lost their representation character in the middle of the popular revolt. The national government was shocked and paralyzed, the Minister of the Interior, Alejandro Izaguirre, fainted in the middle of national television broadcast and the forces of public order, Police and National Guard were overwhelmed by the events. The restoration of public order remained in the hands of the Ministry of Defense, headed by General Italo del Valle Alliegro, who lacking experience in dealing with urban riots made a ruthless use of Armed Forces’ firepower against the civilian population, causing 300 deaths and many wounded in Caracas. Moreover, the swing of economic policy that originated that state of affairs did not have the support of many political leaders of the big political parties, of trade unions, part of the officer’ corps in the Armed Forces, and personalities of great national relevance as Dr. Rafael Caldera and Dr. Uslar Prieto, who organized an informal pressure group, called “the Notables”, opposing the government. The economic program failed one month after its implementation. Then the country went into a vortex of political instability that meant two attempts coups in 1992, thousands of demonstrations and the trial of the President Perez in 1993. The myopia of the Venezuela power elites opened the door to radical solutions and the possibility of returning to historical times considered a thing of the past.59 . .

58

Kornblith, Miriam. La crisis del sistema político venezolano. Nueva Sociedad. 134 (Nov-Dec):142-157,1994. See the speech of Carlos Andrés Pérez, immediately after the ruling of the Supreme Court about merits for his trial. This document contains a brief but accurate analysis of the history of Venezuela, made by a politician whose career began in the forties of the twentieth http://www.analitica.com/bitblioteca/cap/csj.asp 59

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The poor performance of the Venezuelan economy has been explained thoroughly and from different technical points of view

60

but in the end is nothing more but the

reflection of the institutional weakness and lack of moral fiber in Venezuelan society and in its power elites unable to break the rentier-distributive system. In part, the inability of Venezuelan power elites to overcome this economic parasite model based on the pattern oil = income = distribution is due to an improvised economic and political culture and to a lack identity and cohesion as a dominant social group, but, equally, to the fact that the elites got abundant benefits, enriching without major efforts under this scheme. The last decade has been particularly disastrous for Venezuela’s economy. The revolutionary Government through an impulsive economic policy highly interventionist, but also erratic and futile, had made the national economy even more oil-dependent, to the point where oil exports account for 94% of the total. Likewise, today the population depends more than ever on government economic handouts. The social missions programs61, actually a large and expensive patronage system whose intention is to sustain consumption of the electoral constituency of the President, has weakened the work ethic and enhanced the parasitic relationship between society and the Landlord State. The Venezuelan government has adopted a political formula that we could depict as “Oil Sultanism”62, a radical condition of Autocratic patrimonialism described by Max Weber, where the ruler, roughly, exercises power in first person, in a discretional way controlling the access to oil wealth, as well as the coercive agencies like Armed Forces, the Bolivarian militia, paramilitary groups and in the case of Venezuela even criminal bands to inculcate fear in the population. The economic result of this type of regime, in the example of Venezuela, can be summarized as a huge concentration of wealth in a new oligarchy, that the independent press and the opposition has baptized as “Bolivarian bourgeoisie” or “boliburguesía”, a highly dependent on the Landlord State socio- economic elite thriving on public contracts, imports, access to the control exchange system and 60

VENEZUELA: ANATOMY OF A COLLAPSE Edited by Ricardo Hausmann, Harvard University Francisco Rodriguez Wesleyan University and The Case of Venezuela. The Illusion of Harmony of Moses and Ramon Piñango Nain 61 62

Sultanistic Regimes Edited by HE: Chehabi and Juan Linz Johns Hopkins University

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well-connected or with family relations in the revolutionary bureaucracy apparatus. After a strong economic growth between 2003 and 2008, a least according to official statistics, interrupted by the crisis between 2009 and 2010, the country is forced to import products commodities such as coffee, maize and rice, which previously were produced in self-sufficient amount and even exported a surplus. None of the fundamental problems of economics Venezuelan were solved, rather, they had worsened. Inflation is the highest of world, the introduction of a new currency, the Bolivar Fuerte, was only a cosmetic operation, which did not renew the confidence of Venezuelans in its monetary currency nor was useful as instrument to diminish inflation. Public debt, according to official estimates, is about of 114,000 million of dollars63. While other nations with natural strategic resources as oil strengthened or created Sovereign Wealth Funds, taking advantage of the enormous surpluses in current accounts in the last years of high commodities prices, Venezuela opted to squander the oil surplus in a grandiose foreign policy and sumptuous imports. At this point it is worth to emphasize that official statistics should be used with caution, especially in the last 3-4 years, as the same have serious disagreements and the source data used for its construction are unknown. This is the case of the figures on agricultural production, manufacturing GDP, oil production, consumer’s price index and those relating to the distribution of national income and inequality measures. In this sense, the everyday reality contrasts sharply with the official figures. Shortages of basic products such as sugar, wheat and maize flour have become a chronic problem and this happened in the middle of a hypothetical growth of agricultural production. We add the disappearance of entire lines of products and brands from the shelves of Venezuelan markets, as corn oil, confectionery etc. Industrial production remains relatively high, if compared with the pre-revolutionary years, despite the loss of about 40% of the industrial park in the last 10 years, the departure of foreign manufacturers companies and the electricity crisis that erupted in 2009 and lasted until 2012. The problem in

63

New from “El Universal”: Central Government debt plus PDVSA debt reach $114 billion. Thursday March 1, 2012. . We have to add the debt with China and Russia, and reach 150 billion dollars

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providing electricity even forced the government to reduce by 45-50% the production of national heavy industries (steel and aluminum) located in the south of the country. Also, it had to implement a rationing scheme in all the states, with the exception of Caracas, to save energy. To this, we must add thousands of power blackouts that interrupt daily the production process all over the country. Paradoxically, the revolutionary government aspires to become an international energetic power, but cannot supply enough energy to sustain normal activities economic in its territory. In short, the twentieth century concludes, as the nineteenth, with a revolution, a charismatic leader and strongman, an intense economic and institutional crisis and numerous contradictions between rhetoric and reality. Conclusions

We can identify four economic phases in Venezuela; the first we called the stationary economic cycle, spanning from 1830 to 1924. A second phase based on the initial expansion of the oil industry and ranging from 1925 to 1958 with a very high economic growth; a third, slow but in a stable economic framework for the period 1958 -1977; and finally, the last phase of completed stagnation and decline from 1977 to 2009. For the late colonial period, there was a significant growth from 1783 to 1799, and from there it enters in a phase of stagnation, with some peaks, that extends to the war of independence and continues with the Republic. The colonial economy, according to our assessment, reaches its ceiling production by the end of the eighteenth century. The War of Independence does not produce the destructions emphasizes by national historiography and has no strictly negative economic long-lasting effect, other than the institutional mess that will characterize the nineteenth century. The heroes liberators of Venezuela created nationality but failed to build a viable State capable of reconciling and representing the various interests involved in the formation of the nation. Paradoxically, today Venezuela is experiencing the same situation; the State is basically the representation of a faction of the nation.

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In general terms, the series corresponds exactly with the qualitative studies of Venezuela’s economy, following a random non chronological order, since the Federal War of 1860 and its sequel of revolts and revolutions of all kinds until 1870 produced a stagnation of growth product, a drop in real income and the collapse of private investment. Secondly, the presidential term of Cipriano Castro, during which were combined depressed coffee prices with new revolutions (the Libertadora revolution), the blockade of the Venezuelan coast by some European powers

and a huge mess of public finances, resulted in a fall crash of the

economy. And finally, the period 1999-2003, too closes to us to be analyzed; in this period Venezuelan society enters once again in an historical cycle of social polarization and economic contraction, smoothed by an extraordinary increase in oil prices allowing the Bolivarian Revolution to get root and to show good indicators. Likewise, periods of higher economic growth generally converge with the pacification of the country and with a minimum functioning of its institutions. We can use an example to illustrate our argument; the period of Guzman Blanco and some years later, with the relative pacification of the country, the increase in coffee prices and a fairly coherent institutional policy favoring foreign investment and an increased of exports that stimulated an product and income per capita increase. However, it is unquestionable that growth was not sustained over time. Also, it is surprising the product growth during the period 1848-1858, consequence of the strong expansion in public spending, debt and exports. Similarly, can inferred from the data, the vital importance of the providential discovery of oil to break the immobility that characterized the Venezuelan economy in the nineteenth century and thus propel a long cycle of rapid economic growth with various ups and downs, that lasted from 1925 to 1977, during which the real per capita income multiplied by 8. View over in the long term, Venezuela’s economy does not present an atypical case in Latin America; the average income growth in the region multiplied by 7-9 times. The period 1925-1958 can be considered extraordinary, in which concentrates the most of GDP per capita growth of the twentieth century and even the Venezuela’s per capita income exceeded the one from advanced industrial economies such as Italy and Spain. 131

On the other hand, to understand the lack of growth of Venezuela´s economy during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries is essential to analyze the behavior of population growth rates between 1873 and 192664 , which for reasons not yet well explained by demographers and historians fell from 1.8% in the period 1873 -1881 to 1% between 1881-1891 and 0.7% for the period 1891-1926. What caused this slow but noticeable decline? Reducing the birth rate is apparently discarded; then, was that a result of the extension of malaria and of its tightening, which led to an increase in mortality rate? These are questions unanswered. However, the available references indicate that malaria and Chagas diseases spread over about a half of the territory, specifically affecting more than a third of the population, with serious consequences for reproduction and productivity of the workforce. The truth is probably that the slowing population growth had a negative effect on the ability to generate and sustain growth of the economy in the long term. Especially in an agricultural economy with productivity rate close to zero and therefore dependent on a constant supply of workers to avoid the contraction of agricultural production per capita. Add to this some well- known factors such as high costs of goods and people transportation, that the construction of railways wasn´t able to reduce because of the abrupt topography between production centers and the ports system, the absence of fractional coins that made difficult domestic trade, especially before reforms of Guzman Blanco, epidemics that kept the population in a state of permanent enervation, absence of an articulated capital markets, coffee cycles, high debt and disarray of public finances and some degree of disinterest of part of the population to the tasks of the work65 and last but not least, the caudillismo with its sequels of revolutions and uprisings that cost to Venezuela, around 1,000,000 dead in the XIX century66 . Therefore, oil arrived not only to boost the national economy, but also broke an apparently inevitable trend to the long-term stagnation suffered by Venezuelan society. In the nineteenth century, 64

There is much local information about the ravages of malaria, but we didn’t find a work proposing a global picture and its implications. Note of the author. 65 See the valuable work of Professor Valecillos “The Venezuelan and Work (2010)”. 66 61 Figures from Arraiz, “Los dias de la ira” (1991)

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Venezuela, like the rest of Latin America, was economically in delay regarding the United States, who managed to increase real per capita income in 3.88 times between 1822 and 1913

67

but also showed a notable delay with respect to the

most representative Latin American countries. Mexico, a case of study of strong economic decline after its independence, was able to expand its real income 1.76 times from 1845 to 1900. Spain, during its stormy nineteenth century had real income increased by 1.67 times during 1850-1900.68 Venezuela, instead, had a zero growth. From the exploitation and exportation of hydrocarbons, Venezuela's economy began to grow rapidly, above the average for Latin America and for midfifty its per capita real income was higher than in European nations like Spain and Italy, countries than today had two or three times the Venezuela´s income 69. In the mid-sixties, the real income per capita was the highest in Latin America. That growth stopped abruptly in 1977, when real income reached the maximum of 32,395.79 in local currency at 1984 prices or 9,648 in 1990 dollars. For that year the Venezuelan GDP per capita, taking as reference the 1830 income, and expressed in 1984 prices, had risen 9.2 times. After 32 years, in 2009, the income per capita was 28,306.60 Bolivares or 8,430.81 at 1990 dollars, or 8 times the income of 1830 and a 12.62% lower than in 1977. This despite having recently enjoyed a boom of oil prices from 2004 and 2008, very similar to the mid-seventies of the twentieth century. This aspect opens an interesting field for potential future research; apparently the oil revenues began to show diminishing marginal utility since the late seventies, meaning that increases in oil revenues each time produce less utility in terms of sustained economic growth in time. A barrel of oil at $ 100 is insufficient, even to cover the regular expenses of the public administration, including civil service payroll. Thus, an economy as the Venezuelan, which is experiencing a decline in the supply of resources due to a marginal decreasing of oil revenues, a brutal contraction of manufactured production70 , of the agricultural 67

See Haber in “Como se rezagó America Latina Here we use the series is Professor Maluquer de Motes. Professor Prados de la Escosura, in our view is one of the major European experts on the topic and he raised doubts about the number of Maluquer . See the debate between them embodied in two papers, they are very illustrative. Author’s note. 69 See World Bank data using the Atlas method or GNI (Gross National Income) 70 The data can be obtained Conindusria, association of industries of Venezuela. 68

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production and the energy system71, electric power production deterioration72 and acute conflict between producers and the new political group, and the increasing marginal costs to sustain the system (internal and external patronage, nationalizations and the increased of a non-productive sector of the population) can only worsening its economic performance73, compromising its economic growth in the long term and prolonging and intensifying the process decline that began in 1977 and has had some ups and downs, the last of them the brief surge in oil prices during 2004 to 2008. We are of the opinion that the tendency of the Venezuelan economy in the coming years, if there are no surprises and a real change, will be the identical or even worse of that between 1978 and 2009. All the factors that led the economy to its present stagnation are not only present, but have become more serious in the last decade. Thus, Venezuela will continue to decline with the known peaks caused by the movement of oil prices, which will end, as usual, voracious consumed by a parasitic society, that many years ago lost its track to development. Venezuela is a nation frozen in time, living of the myths of its past, unable to understand the present and not capable to imagine its future but still with a large potential to growth if Venezuelans decided someday to turn definitively the page of history. Finally, we attach the series including the following: the structure of GDP, the population, GDP current and constant, the real income per capita period 17832009, all expressed in 1984 bolivars and in 1990 dollars. While the objective of this study is to measure the Venezuela´s economic growth from 1783 to 2009, we included a set of graphs and tables on performance of the economy from 1830 to 1949 and expressed in current and constant bolivars. We want to underline that the period 1830-1949 corresponded with the most complex part of the reconstruction of the national accounts of Venezuela and therefore we have included a good amount of information. Also, the graphics and overall inflation rates for the 18301949 period, some prices , a TFP exploration using Private Stock of Capital, some 71

For oil production data see and compare information from PDVSA, the International Agency of Energy and OPEC 72 Unfortunately there are no official or unofficial data, but only press reports of its recurrence 73 70 See Tanteir in “The Collapse of Complex Societies” (1990)

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tables on the performance of the largest economies Latin American during the 1900-2008 period; for that purpose we used the Angus Maddison database and the Italian economy with data courteously provided by Professor Paolo Malanima.. Etc. The detailed sources of statistical annexes, data export, import, spending, investment, prices, and inflation and so on, could be request by interested researchers in the casee of Venezuela by email: [email protected].

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en

Venezuela.

Torres Sánchez, J. 2003 Dieta Alimenticia en La Provincia de Caracas en la Segunda Mitad del Siglo XVIII: Problemas y Resultados Cuantitativos .Estudiosamericanos.revista.csic.es Torres Sánchez, J. 2000 Régimen Alimenticio y Nutrición en Algunos Hatos del Alto Apure (Venezuela): Un Estudio Cuantitativo, 1909-1910 .www.recolecta.net/single/estudiosamericanos Torres Sánchez, J. 2004. La Alimentación venezolana en la Segunda Mitad del Siglo XIX. www.americanistas.es/biblos/textos/11/11-35 Torres Sánchez, J. 2009 Alimentación en Venezuela: Una Revisión Histórica. www.saber.ula.ve/bit 123456789/30645/articulo3pdf

143

Van Zanden,J.L., Estimating www.iisg.nl/reseach/jvz/estimating pdf

Early

Modern

Economic

Growth.

Yáñez César M.d.Mar Rubio Albert Carreras. Economic Modernisation in Latin America and the Caribbean between1890 and 1925: A view from the energy consumption www.helsinki.fi/iehc2006/papers3/Yanez.pdf Por ultimo utilizamos las paginas WEB del Banco Mundial, Fondo Monetario Internacional, OCDE, la biblioteca digital GOOGLE Libros, CEPAL, INEGI México, BCV y INE Venezuela

144

Algunas Medidas, Pesos y Cambios venezolanos 1 Ton---------------------------920 Kg 1 Quintal-----------------------46Kg 1 arroba------------------------11,502 Kg 1 carga de 80Bs---------------58 litros 1 libra---------------------------0,460 Kg 1 fanega ------------------------50 Kg 1 onza---------------------------28,756 gramos 1legua ---------------------------5,572 Mt 1fanegada-----------------------0,6987 Hectáreas 1 Bolívar----------------------- 1 Franco 1 Venezolano------------------- 5 Francos 5,18262 Bolívares---------------1 Dólar 5 Bolívares-----------------------1 Peso 25,25 Bolívares------------------1 Libra Esterlina 1,25 Bolívares------------------- 1 Marco 1 Bolívar---------------------------1 Peseta 80 Bolívares---------------------- 1 onza colombiana

145

Anexo 1 Ejercicio de contabilidad de Crecimiento con el método de inventarios perpetuos con una tasa de depreciación del 3%. Para el periodo 1830-1936 L=0.4 y para 1936-1949 L=0.5 usando el acervo de capital privado no residencial. Exercise of growth accounting with a rate of depreciation of 3%. Labor share in production is assumed to be 0.4 for 1830-1936 and 0.5 for 1936-1949. Using private stock of no residential capital. Historic Period

Averages growth rates Years Capital Labor GDP Conservative Oligarchy 1830-48 3,96 2,17 1,29 Liberal Oligarchy 1849-59 1,56 1,35 2,70 Federal War and Transition 1860-70 -1,80 1,17 0,92 Yellow liberalism 1871-98 3,30 1,20 2,10 Castrism 1899-1908 -0,85 0,70 -1,44 Gomecism 1909-1936 2,77 1,03 4,12 Post Gomecism 1936-1949 12,43 2,93 9,16

Contribution Capital 2,38 0,94 -1,08 1,98 -0,51 1,66 6,21

to growth Labor TFP 0,87 -1,96 0,54 1,23 0,47 1,53 0,48 -0,36 0,28 -1,21 0,41 2,05 1,46 1,49

Stock of Private Employment GDP no residential Capital mill.1984 Years 1830 3.060,00 285.507 3.045,58 1831 3.209,42 293.285 3.084,86 1832 3.375,63 301.063 3.577,58 1833 3.550,92 308.841 3.720,36 1834 3.821,12 316.619 3.855,30 1835 4.017,44 324.396 3.877,09 1836 4.184,66 332.174 3.696,23 1837 4.298,06 339.952 3.562,90 1838 4.454,42 347.730 3.280,30 1839 4.619,15 355.507 3.119,99 1840 4.794,58 363.285 3.071,19 1841 4.980,44 371.063 3.470,32 1842 5.218,22 378.841 3.969,65 1843 5.388,83 386.618 3.741,38 1844 5.596,25 394.396 3.828,08 1845 5.805,46 402.176 3.950,41 1846 5.989,77 408.230 4.059,16 1847 6.131,12 414.285 3.949,69 1848 6.144,69 420.339 4.001,05 1849 6.189,07 426.393 3.733,06 1850 6.322,33 432.448 4.504,26 1851 6.482,07 438.502 4.395,27 1852 6.735,10 444.556 4.627,08 1853 6.944,43 450.610 5.006,44

146

1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896

7.089,29 7.131,89 7.217,27 7.281,26 7.319,31 7.281,46 7.168,56 7.037,10 6.883,09 6.723,16 6.654,02 6.567,45 6.454,86 6.318,79 6.210,77 6.091,95 5.963,22 5.872,52 5.798,10 5.750,51 5.694,85 5.859,86 6.437,35 6.846,93 7.096,20 7.393,28 7.655,88 8.071,49 8.801,32 9.348,63 9.721,54 10.087,38 10.577,03 11.192,67 11.800,41 12.439,60 12.890,39 13.363,62 13.570,32 13.910,20 14.126,07 14.302,57 14.517,90

456.665 462.719 468.773 474.827 480.882 486.936 492.990 499.044 505.099 511.153 517.207 523.262 529.316 535.370 541.424 547.479 553.533 559.587 565.641 571.696 582.946 594.196 605.446 616.696 627.946 639.196 650.446 661.696 668.838 675.980 683.122 690.265 697.407 704.549 711.692 718.834 725.976 733.119 738.702 744.286 749.870 755.444 761.038

5.179,66 5.435,25 4.229,46 4.972,09 4.949,57 5.019,30 5.414,85 5.891,17 5.269,68 4.914,67 4.829,58 5.190,45 5.183,59 4.742,18 4.861,54 5.417,08 5.403,19 5.376,04 5.487,42 6.021,38 6.710,55 6.081,44 6.431,35 6.641,05 7.221,32 7.214,39 7.801,93 7.884,50 7.843,12 8.301,15 8.868,95 8.290,38 8.961,89 9.327,36 9.441,42 9.921,49 10.782,25 10.227,98 9.271,96 9.386,34 9.314,25 10.189,85 8.981,95

147

1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939

14.470,89 14.633,82 14.633,15 14.618,90 14.635,24 14.381,92 14.316,31 14.164,33 13.977,08 13.807,76 13.638,42 13.427,12 13.233,88 13.103,17 13.111,18 12.990,79 12.817,81 12.782,70 12.858,23 13.190,94 13.256,08 13.435,91 13.886,48 14.297,90 14.352,05 14.714,56 15.355,30 16.375,55 17.716,30 19.407,89 20.739,51 22.570,72 24.160,04 25.183,41 25.492,42 25.740,17 25.910,67 26.920,63 27.693,89 30.355,71 33.460,22 38.028,69 44.107,49

766.621 772.205 777.789 783.372 788.956 794.539 800.123 805.707 811.290 816.874 822.434 828.041 833.625 839.208 844.792 850.375 855.959 861.543 867.126 872.710 878.293 883.877 889.461 895.044 900.628 906.211 911.795 917.379 922.962 928.663 946.820 964.977 983.134 1.001.292 1.019.449 1.037.606 1.055.763 1.073.920 1.092.077 1.110.235 1.142.338 1.174.442 1.206.546

9.297,39 9.174,51 7.784,36 8.020,10 7.773,39 7.270,47 7.810,56 7.988,47 8.158,24 8.080,96 7.910,76 7.787,92 7.859,46 7.817,93 7.506,34 8.101,73 8.351,40 9.653,73 9.733,24 9.136,29 9.539,24 9.973,82 9.715,33 9.475,36 9.221,78 10.042,93 10.643,50 11.056,20 11.710,72 12.504,16 12.937,76 15.345,48 16.045,37 16.234,62 16.428,39 15.107,90 17.114,27 18.142,45 21.884,55 24.060,86 24.664,05 27.982,38 30.326,24

148

1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

51.622,10 56.201,64 61.451,11 68.980,02 77.867,83 91.117,69 103.016,81 114.832,89 129.834,26 142.192,18

1.238.650 1.270.754 1.316.329 1.361.903 1.407.477 1.453.052 1.498.626 1.544.200 1.589.775 1.635.349

32.787,17 32.677,45 29.254,19 33.399,20 37.304,82 46.862,78 55.378,49 55.650,38 68.080,14 70.945,03

Private Capital per Person Employed 1830-1949 Bolivares 1984 100.000,00 90.000,00 80.000,00 70.000,00 60.000,00 50.000,00 40.000,00 30.000,00 20.000,00 10.000,00 1830 1833 1836 1839 1842 1845 1848 1851 1854 1857 1860 1863 1866 1869 1872 1875 1878 1881 1884 1887 1890 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1908 1911 1914 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947

0,00

149

1830 1834 1838 1842 1846 1850 1854 1858 1862 1866 1870 1874 1878 1882 1886 1890 1894 1898 1902 1906 1910 1914 1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946

1830 1833 1836 1839 1842 1845 1848 1851 1854 1857 1860 1863 1866 1869 1872 1875 1878 1881 1884 1887 1890 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1908 1911 1914 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947

Private Capital Ouput Ratio 1830-1949

2,50

2,00

1,50

1,00

0,50

0,00

Employment 1830-1949

1.800.000

1.600.000

1.400.000

1.200.000

1.000.000

800.000

600.000

400.000

200.000

0

150

Anexo 2 PIB per capita de Italia, Regiones del Norte, Sur y Venezuela en dólares 1990. GDP of Italy, North and South and Venezuela in 1990 International dollars.

1861 1884 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009

GDP in International dollars 1990 Italy Northern South Venezuela 1.486 1.490 1.482 1.164 1.787 1.809 1.751 1.275 2.101 2.189 1.950 1.009 2.538 2.707 2.242 914 2.738 3.003 2.247 1.041 3.104 3.551 2.295 1.595 3.742 4.427 2.543 2.598 3.739 4.520 2.415 4.612 6.287 7.536 4.140 6.601 10.049 11.517 7.355 8.334 13.650 15.859 9.606 8.870 16.940 19.659 11.870 7.218 19.741 23.409 13.215 7.206 19.065 22.117 12.905 8.430

Sources: For Italy Paolo Malanima.

GDP per Capita 1=1861 ITALY

North Italy

South Italy

VENEZUELA

18,00 16,00 14,00 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 1861 1884 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009

151

Anexo 2: PIB y PIB per cápita 1783-2009. GDP and GDP per capita 1783-2009 in current, 1984 Bolivares and International dollars 1990 and population series.

Pob

1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796 1797 1798 1799 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817

586.736 599.281 611.826 624.371 636.915 649.460 662.005 674.550 687.095 699.640 712.185 724.730 737.275 749.820 762.365 774.910 787.455 800.000 805.441 810.882 816.323 821.764 827.205 832.646 838.087 843.528 848.969 854.410 847.050 839.691 832.332 824.973 817.614 810.255 802.895

GDP current

GDP 1984

GDP per cápita BS

88,10 92,42 95,46 104,55 100,59 102,93 101,00 100,00 110,92 127,79 120,09 129,18 111,84 117,62 123,40 106,07 110,56 115,05 98,51 128,04 124,37 116,36 107,21 116,36 121,54 98,27 125,52 115,63 91,91 89,63 87,20 80,90 101,79 101,57 103,37

millions Bs 2.096,31 1.944,53 1.933,03 2.198,39 2.749,66 2.813,62 2.760,87 2.733,53 3.032,03 2.495,13 3.282,70 2.716,29 3.057,18 3.215,18 3.294,12 3.412,73 3.357,99 2.246,38 2.978,76 2.604,18 2.741,69 2.516,41 2.930,62 3.180,74 2.658,72 2.166,32 2.714,50 2.516,55 2.512,39 2.172,04 2.113,16 1.960,49 2.432,22 2.313,71 2.871,60

1984 3.572,83 3.244,77 3.159,44 3.520,97 4.317,15 4.332,25 4.170,46 4.052,38 4.412,83 3.566,30 4.609,33 3.748,00 4.146,60 4.287,94 4.320,92 4.404,04 4.264,36 2.807,97 3.698,30 3.211,54 3.358,58 3.062,20 3.542,80 3.820,04 3.172,37 2.568,17 3.197,41 2.945,36 2.966,05 2.586,72 2.538,84 2.376,42 2.974,78 2.855,53 3.576,55

GDP per cápita $ 1990 1064,07 966,36 940,95 1048,62 1285,74 1290,24 1242,05 1206,88 1314,23 1062,12 1372,76 1116,23 1234,94 1277,04 1286,86 1311,62 1270,02 836,27 1101,43 956,46 1000,26 911,99 1055,12 1137,69 944,8 764,86 952,26 877,19 883,35 770,38 756,12 707,75 885,95 850,44 1065,17

152

1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860

795.536 788.177 780.818 773.459 766.100 778.484 790.868 803.252 815.637 828.021 840.405 852.789 865.174 888.743 912.312 935.881 959.450 983.018 1.006.588 1.030.157 1.053.726 1.077.295 1.100.864 1.124.433 1.148.002 1.171.571 1.195.140 1.218.709 1.237.062 1.255.408 1.273.754 1.292.101 1.310.447 1.328.793 1.347.139 1.365.486 1.383.832 1.402.178 1.420.524 1.438.871 1.457.217 1.475.564 1.493.910

104,14 101,09 98,78 101,22 103,65 122,60 119,97 110,56 143,96 108,15 105,25 105,40 114,08 111,65 125,81 133,02 139,67 144,06 138,65 138,95 126,14 121,15 119,33 134,90 144,00 141,17 146,66 142,37 147,66 146,92 160,50 158,38 162,22 166,91 173,97 186,44 201,40 230,28 174,58 183,49 186,07 188,01 207,80

2.758,43 2.415,50 2.311,80 2.290,46 1.935,32 2.301,72 2.113,03 1.907,95 2.588,94 2.161,05 2.365,99 2.308,61 3.045,58 3.084,86 3.577,58 3.720,36 3.855,30 3.877,09 3.696,23 3.562,90 3.280,30 3.119,99 3.071,19 3.470,32 3.969,65 3.741,38 3.828,08 3.950,41 4.059,16 3.949,69 4.001,05 3.733,06 4.504,26 4.395,27 4.627,08 5.006,44 5.179,66 5.435,25 4.229,46 4.972,09 4.949,57 5.019,30 5.414,85

3.467,39 3.064,66 2.960,74 2.961,33 2.526,20 2.956,67 2.671,78 2.375,28 3.174,14 2.609,90 2.815,30 2.707,13 3520,2 3471,04 3921,45 3975,26 4018,25 3944,07 3667,08 3458,6 3113,05 2896,14 2789,81 3086,29 3457,88 3193,48 3203,04 3241,48 3281,29 3146,15 3141,16 2889,14 3437,2 3307,72 3434,75 3666,42 3742,98 3876,29 2977,39 3455,55 3396,6 3401,62 3624,62

1032,66 912,72 881,77 881,95 752,35 880,56 795,71 707,41 945,32 777,28 838,45 806,24 1.043,18 1.033,12 1.164,72 1.184,45 1.197,15 1.174,27 1.089,74 1.028,07 923,68 867,73 826,19 914,42 1.031,54 953,29 958,70 960,69 981,61 937,74 937,54 860,78 1.018,01 981,33 1.021,68 1.094,05 1.109,28 1.153,30 882,89 1.035,09 1.010,19 1.008,04 1.073,29

153

1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903

1.512.256 1.530.602 1.548.949 1.567.295 1.585.641 1.603.987 1.622.334 1.640.680 1.659.026 1.677.372 1.695.719 1.714.064 1.732.411 1.766.502 1.800.593 1.834.684 1.868.775 1.902.866 1.936.957 1.971.048 2.005.139 2.026.782 2.048.425 2.070.068 2.091.712 2.113.355 2.134.998 2.156.642 2.178.285 2.199.928 2.221.572 2.238.492 2.255.413 2.272.334 2.289.255 2.306.175 2.323.095 2.340.015 2.356.935 2.373.855 2.390.775 2.407.695 2.424.615

228,22 206,02 190,00 191,03 206,00 209,36 197,53 212,38 246,65 258,42 270,05 274,80 302,52 334,35 313,78 342,66 368,30 382,06 389,50 406,94 397,50 385,77 393,51 434,99 425,47 443,43 419,03 428,29 435,24 450,36 432,26 407,71 458,04 453,20 505,61 465,06 504,62 517,19 436,62 467,38 468,01 458,03 511,05

5.891,17 5.269,68 4.914,67 4.829,58 5.190,45 5.183,59 4.742,18 4.861,54 5.417,08 5.403,19 5.376,04 5.487,42 6.021,38 6.710,55 6.081,44 6.431,35 6.641,05 7.221,32 7.214,39 7.801,93 7.884,50 7.843,12 8.301,15 8.868,95 8.290,38 8.961,89 9.327,36 9.441,42 9.921,49 10.782,25 10.227,98 9.271,96 9.386,34 9.314,25 10.189,85 8.981,95 9.297,39 9.174,51 7.784,36 8.020,10 7.773,39 7.270,47 7.810,56

3895,62 3442,88 3172,91 3081,48 3273,41 3231,7 2923,06 2963,13 3265,22 3221,23 3170,37 3201,41 3475,73 3798,78 3377,47 3505,43 3553,69 3794,97 3724,6 3958,27 3932,15 3869,74 4052,46 4284,38 3963,45 4240,6 4368,79 4377,84 4554,73 4901,19 4603,94 4142,06 4161,7 4098,98 4451,17 3894,74 4002,16 3920,71 3302,75 3378,52 3251,41 3019,68 3221,36

1.164,46 1.025,92 946,48 917,81 978,28 959,74 874,69 879,39 967,91 962,89 947,94 954,29 1.029,62 1.126,62 1.008,48 1.042,23 1.061,86 1.130,53 1.112,22 1.183,82 1.168,87 1.154,95 1.212,78 1.275,08 1.177,13 1.260,95 1.304,97 1.306,52 1.357,40 1.453,95 1.366,39 1.237,34 1.244,39 1.222,07 1.327,30 1.156,30 1.190,89 1.170,66 981,19 1.008,64 963,37 900,74 961,57

154

1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946

2.441.535 2.458.455 2.475.375 2.492.225 2.509.215 2.526.135 2.543.055 2.559.975 2.576.895 2.593.815 2.610.735 2.627.655 2.644.575 2.661.495 2.678.415 2.695.335 2.712.255 2.729.175 2.746.095 2.763.015 2.779.935 2.796.855 2.814.131 2.869.152 2.924.174 2.979.195 3.034.217 3.089.239 3.144.260 3.199.282 3.254.303 3.309.325 3.364.347 3.461.631 3.558.916 3.656.201 3.753.486 3.850.771 3.988.875 4.126.979 4.265.083 4.403.187 4.541.291

541,81 577,37 600,52 605,42 636,87 665,47 699,31 700,08 798,03 852,77 994,63 1.057,49 1.059,80 1.150,37 1.275,09 1.458,31 1.531,62 1.178,95 1.181,38 1.235,72 1.380,73 1.524,65 1.696,90 1.689,68 1.997,87 1.987,41 1.889,83 1.833,54 1.578,18 1.620,00 1.611,73 1.823,49 2.135,05 2.397,61 2.620,18 3.015,71 3.229,73 3.087,35 2.881,71 3.540,21 4.198,71 5.463,16 7.041,86

7.988,47 8.158,24 8.080,96 7.910,76 7.787,92 7.859,46 7.817,93 7.506,34 8.101,73 8.351,40 9.653,73 9.733,24 9.136,29 9.539,24 9.973,82 9.715,33 9.475,36 9.221,78 10.042,93 10.643,50 11.056,20 11.710,72 12.504,16 12.937,76 15.345,48 16.045,37 16.234,62 16.428,39 15.107,90 17.114,27 18.142,45 21.884,55 24.060,86 24.664,05 27.982,38 30.326,24 32.787,17 32.677,45 29.254,19 33.399,20 37.304,82 46.862,78 55.378,49

3271,91 3318,45 3264,54 3174,18 3103,73 3111,26 3074,23 2932,2 3143,99 3219,74 3697,71 3704,16 3454,73 3584,17 3723,78 3604,5 3493,54 3378,97 3657,17 3852,14 3977,14 4187,11 4443,35 4509,26 5247,8 5385,81 5350,52 5317,94 4804,92 5349,41 5574,91 6613 7151,72 7124,98 7862,61 8294,47 8735,13 8485,95 7333,94 8092,89 8746,56 10642,92 12194,44

976,73 985,11 971,95 943,03 922,28 924,98 914,19 872,04 935,04 960,19 1.102,36 1.103,20 1.030,72 1.067,75 1.110,22 1.073,51 1.041,12 1.007,42 1.088,57 1.145,58 1.184,82 1.248,01 1.322,35 1.343,32 1.564,16 1.603,60 1.595,39 1.585,27 1.432,43 1.590,34 1.664,18 1.967,91 2.132,43 2.122,01 2.335,75 2.466,57 2.598,01 2.530,77 2.181,27 2.415,04 2.607,09 3.165,12 3.629,75

155

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

4.679.395 4.817.499 4.955.603 5.093.708 5.320.871 5.548.034 5.775.197 6.002.360 6.229.524 6.499.401 6.769.278 7.039.155 7.309.032 7.578.910 7.881.842 8.184.774 8.487.706 8.790.638 9.093.571 9.419.075 9.744.579 10.070.083 10.395.587 10.721.092 11.123.741 11.526.390 11.929.039 12.331.688 12.734.339 13.205.715 13.677.091 14.148.467 14.619.843 15.091.221 15.536.482 15.981.743 16.427.004 16.872.365 17.317.525 17.800.965 18.284.405 18.767.845 19.251.285

8.358,32 10.996,54 11.446,00 11.826,00 13.007,00 13.981,00 14.806,00 16.377,00 17.893,00 20.400,00 23.847,00 24.585,00 24.904,00 25.671,00 27.024,00 29.525,00 32.186,00 35.637,00 37.925,00 39.516,00 41.625,00 45.155,00 46.283,00 52.025,00 57.141,00 61.502,00 73.253,00 112.234,00 118.098,00 135.104,00 155.706,00 169.060,00 207.737,00 254.201,00 285.208,00 291.268,00 290.492,00 420.072,00 464.741,00 489.172,00 696.421,00 873.283,00 1.510.361,00

55.650,38 68.080,14 70.945,03 78.884,97 88.089,36 94.504,53 100.349,47 110.012,52 119.780,95 132.431,55 147.809,38 149.774,22 161.557,07 167.990,84 176.494,82 192.455,28 205.638,93 225.659,24 238.898,68 244.483,29 254.332,29 267.559,33 278.716,77 300.024,34 309.238,27 319.311,37 339.285,73 359.858,56 381.693,49 415.171,73 443.080,15 452.554,79 458.598,65 449.479,53 448.122,62 451.180,11 425.837,37 420.072,00 420.884,00 448.285,00 464.341,00 491.372,00 449.262,00

11892,64 14131,84 14316,12 15.486,75 16.555,44 17.033,88 17.375,94 18.328,21 19.227,95 20.375,96 21.835,32 21.277,30 22.103,76 22.165,57 22.392,59 23.513,82 24.227,86 25.670,41 26.271,16 25.956,19 26.099,87 26.569,72 26.811,07 27.984,49 27.799,84 27.702,63 28.442,00 29.181,61 29.973,56 31.438,79 32.395,79 31.986,14 31.368,23 29.784,17 28.843,25 28.230,97 25.923,01 24.897,04 24.303,93 25.183,19 25.395,47 26.181,59 23.336,73

3.544,04 4.208,38 4.258,31 4.612,28 4.930,56 5.073,05 5.174,92 5.458,53 5.726,49 6.068,39 6.503,02 6.336,83 6.582,97 6.601,37 6.668,99 7.002,91 7.215,57 7.645,19 7.824,11 7.730,30 7.773,09 7.913,03 7.984,90 8.334,37 8.279,38 8.250,43 8.470,63 8.690,90 8.926,76 9.363,14 9.648,15 9.526,15 9.342,12 8.870,36 8.590,13 8.407,78 7.720,42 7.414,87 7.238,23 7.500,09 7.563,31 7.797,43 6.950,17

156

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

19.734.723 20.196.727 20.659.047 21.121.216 21.582.756 22.043.179 22.501.988 22.958.680 23.412.742 23.867.393 24.310.896 24.765.581 25.219.910 25.673.550 26.127.351 26.577.423 27.030.656 27.483.208 27.934.783 28.384.132

2.279.261,00 3.037.492,00 4.131.483,00 5.453.903,00 8.675.172,00 13.685.686,00 29.437.682,00 41.943.151,00 50.012.967,00 59.344.600,00 79.655.692,00 88.945.596,00 107.840.166,00 134.227.833,00 212.683.082,00 304.086.815,00 393.926.240,00 486.376.026,00 667.997.431,00 700.207.518,00

478.320,00 524.860,00 556.669,00 558.202,00 545.087,00 566.627,00 565.506,00 601.534,00 603.302,84 567.282,90 588.198,30 608.163,14 554.306,36 511.318,24 604.820,99 667.225,90 733.095,44 792.856,68 830.768,77 803.458,38

24.237,48 25.987,38 26.945,53 26.428,50 25.255,67 25.705,32 25.131,38 26.200,72 25.768,14 23.768,11 24.194,84 24.556,79 21.978,92 19.916,15 23.148,96 25.104,99 27.120,89 28.848,77 29.739,58 28.306,60

7.218,43 7.739,59 8.024,95 7.870,97 7.521,67 7.655,59 7.484,66 7.803,13 7.674,30 7.078,65 7.205,74 7.313,53 6.545,79 5.931,45 6.894,25 7.476,80 8.077,17 8.591,77 8.857,08 8.430,31

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología

GDP per Capita dollars 1990 1783-2009 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000

1783 1789 1795 1801 1807 1813 1819 1825 1831 1837 1843 1849 1855 1861 1867 1873 1879 1885 1891 1897 1903 1909 1915 1921 1927 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005

0

Serie1

157

Anexo 3: Composición PIB 1830-1949 en porcentajes. Composition of GDP in percent.

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867

Consumption Goverment spenditures % Includes pub. Invest % 89,57 4,47 88,87 5,10 89,05 4,48 87,61 4,66 86,70 4,15 84,29 4,16 85,36 5,89 83,69 5,28 81,33 5,74 83,60 7,98 88,94 6,03 79,97 5,72 74,42 10,05 79,08 6,66 78,01 10,20 76,29 8,25 74,20 12,40 77,29 8,36 77,51 8,82 80,45 10,77 79,89 10,77 79,22 11,21 78,38 8,18 75,79 12,65 80,16 11,47 78,29 13,87 77,45 14,36 86,51 12,33 82,27 10,52 85,87 5,67 80,92 14,07 76,45 14,74 80,48 11,84 87,35 5,93 87,92 12,43 83,20 12,30 84,99 9,87 93,58 7,39

Net Export % 0,43 -1,79 -0,87 0,29 -0,62 3,53 0,95 4,33 4,24 -1,15 -5,20 4,81 5,78 5,52 2,15 5,91 4,57 6,22 8,73 2,65 2,26 1,63 3,77 3,35 1,55 3,14 1,12 -4,48 2,03 4,84 3,07 7,39 6,59 5,77 -3,10 2,32 3,51 -2,19

Private Invest. % 5,53 7,82 7,34 7,43 9,77 8,02 7,80 6,71 8,70 9,56 10,22 9,50 9,75 8,74 9,64 9,55 8,83 8,13 4,94 6,13 7,08 7,95 9,68 8,22 6,82 4,70 7,08 5,64 5,18 3,62 1,95 1,42 1,08 0,95 2,74 2,18 1,63 1,21

Total 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00

158

1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910

91,29 82,10 81,90 82,82 83,87 86,99 80,69 85,68 81,74 82,25 83,71 86,08 82,30 81,25 77,92 80,16 80,61 80,12 80,76 77,23 77,56 75,53 69,65 73,38 76,43 73,08 75,27 71,02 77,34 80,73 82,47 83,37 81,48 84,66 89,79 83,65 82,60 82,14 81,84 84,83 84,61 84,99 85,39

9,37 8,77 4,93 8,12 5,61 5,64 7,52 7,09 7,12 5,83 5,89 6,03 5,55 7,55 6,49 9,15 7,93 7,28 6,46 10,08 8,74 10,48 10,91 10,35 8,19 11,34 9,68 13,05 10,21 9,02 6,89 5,56 8,13 6,91 5,14 7,51 9,48 8,72 10,18 8,16 7,48 7,86 8,81

-2,34 7,88 12,17 7,42 8,67 5,28 10,05 1,70 -0,58 2,84 4,11 0,82 5,95 3,02 3,20 0,92 4,10 4,67 3,93 2,68 3,71 3,98 11,80 7,86 8,83 7,62 8,24 10,04 5,27 6,06 4,13 5,44 5,09 2,58 2,52 4,16 4,44 6,22 4,89 3,92 5,36 4,47 2,39

1,68 1,25 1,00 1,64 1,85 2,10 1,74 5,52 11,71 9,08 6,30 7,07 6,21 8,18 12,39 9,77 7,36 7,93 8,84 10,00 9,99 10,01 7,64 8,41 6,55 7,96 6,80 5,89 7,17 4,18 6,51 5,63 5,30 5,85 2,55 4,68 3,47 2,91 3,09 3,10 2,54 2,67 3,41

100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00

159

1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

89,45 82,91 84,14 87,39 86,56 87,61 89,08 82,05 81,56 89,54 82,91 83,84 81,39 76,47 72,35 72,99 67,12 58,00 55,42 56,52 57,72 63,46 65,47 63,35 59,52 57,85 56,36 55,05 53,91 52,95 52,16 51,55 51,12 50,86 50,78 50,87 51,14 51,58 52,20

9,15 7,82 7,61 4,51 5,48 5,48 4,60 4,56 4,67 6,70 6,86 6,10 8,27 8,36 10,70 10,54 9,22 12,25 13,27 13,81 9,07 10,26 9,50 11,10 12,79 13,35 13,05 13,78 12,77 11,43 10,82 10,51 9,49 9,76 10,63 13,52 15,52 14,95 17,08

-3,95 5,91 5,66 4,49 3,24 -0,95 1,48 7,60 4,98 -4,98 4,99 2,70 0,16 1,77 1,31 -1,31 8,87 13,77 17,18 18,90 26,73 19,58 19,52 15,69 20,47 14,29 14,31 11,26 9,52 8,67 18,27 14,23 11,33 10,00 5,33 9,19 6,56 6,37 7,81

5,34 3,37 2,60 3,62 4,72 7,86 4,83 5,79 8,79 8,74 5,24 7,36 10,17 13,39 15,64 17,78 14,79 15,99 14,13 10,77 6,48 6,70 5,51 9,85 7,22 14,52 16,28 19,91 23,81 26,96 18,75 23,71 28,06 29,37 33,26 26,42 26,79 27,10 22,91

100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología.

160

Anexo 4: PIB per cápita 1957-2001. Índice encadenado de Fischer usado por Prof. Francisco Rodríguez y el Índice Laspeyres usados en la serie propuesta. GDP and GDP per capita in Bolivares 1984 from 1957-2001 using a Chained Index done by Professor Rodriguez and using an Index of Laspeyres proposed in series.

Pob 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

6.769.278 7.039.155 7.309.032 7.578.910 7.881.842 8.184.774 8.487.706 8.790.638 9.093.571 9.419.075 9.744.579 10.070.083 10.395.587 10.721.092 11.123.741 11.526.390 11.929.039 12.331.688 12.734.339 13.205.715 13.677.091 14.148.467 14.619.843 15.091.221 15.536.482 15.981.743 16.427.004 16.872.365 17.317.525 17.800.965 18.284.405 18.767.845 19.251.285 19.734.723 20.196.727

GDP per GDP GDC cápita mill.1984 Boliv. 1984 147.809,38 21.835,32 149.774,22 21.277,30 161.557,07 22.103,76 167.990,84 22.165,57 176.494,82 22.392,59 192.455,28 23.513,82 205.638,93 24.227,86 225.659,24 25.670,41 238.898,68 26.271,16 244.483,29 25.956,19 254.332,29 26.099,87 267.559,33 26.569,72 278.716,77 26.811,07 300.024,34 27.984,49 309.238,27 27.799,84 319.311,37 27.702,63 339.285,73 28.442,00 359.858,56 29.181,61 381.693,49 29.973,56 415.171,73 31.438,79 443.080,15 32.395,79 452.554,79 31.986,14 458.598,65 31.368,23 449.479,53 29.784,17 448.122,62 28.843,25 451.180,11 28.230,97 425.837,37 25.923,01 420.072,00 24.897,04 420.884,00 24.303,93 448.285,00 25.183,19 464.341,00 25.395,47 491.372,00 26.181,59 449.262,00 23.336,73 478.320,00 24.237,48 524.860,00 25.987,38

GDP Rodríguez mill.1984 147.539,88 149.132,11 159.090,15 172.238,74 179.487,23 193.579,64 203.248,71 223.382,52 235.858,98 241.121,57 253.400,84 266.586,04 279.823,29 302.811,13 314.263,82 328.787,09 353.600,74 366.199,14 370.202,96 402.999,97 432.715,04 447.975,58 459.205,94 442.109,75 444.966,09 440.465,38 425.781,87 420.072,00 420.963,61 447.538,80 464.279,61 490.763,13 443.195,97 473.001,12 517.947,21

GDP per cápita Boliv. 1984 21.795,51 21.186,08 21.766,24 22.726,06 22.772,24 23.651,19 23.946,25 25.411,41 25.936,89 25.599,28 26.004,29 26.473,07 26.917,51 28.244,43 28.251,63 28.524,72 29.642,01 29.695,78 29.071,24 30.517,09 31.637,94 31.662,48 31.409,77 29.295,82 28.640,08 27.560,53 25.919,63 24.897,04 24.308,53 25.141,27 25.392,11 26.149,15 23.021,63 23.967,96 25.645,11

161

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

20.659.047 21.121.216 21.582.756 22.043.179 22.501.988 22.958.680 23.412.742 23.867.393 24.310.896 24.765.581

556.669,00 558.202,00 545.087,00 566.627,00 565.506,00 601.534,00 603.302,84 567.282,90 588.198,30 608.163,14

26.945,53 26.428,50 25.255,67 25.705,32 25.131,38 26.200,72 25.768,14 23.768,11 24.194,84 24.556,79

549.881,40 550.207,69 535.200,50 550.144,55 541.962,27 581.287,61 583.871,98 550.443,98 569.026,83 587.938,87

26.616,98 26.050,00 24.797,60 24.957,59 24.085,08 25.318,86 24.938,21 23.062,59 23.406,25 23.740,16

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y Francisco Rodríguez Nuevo Índice Encadenado.

GDP per capita Bolivares 1984 1957-2001 35.000,00

30.000,00

25.000,00

20.000,00

15.000,00

10.000,00

1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

5.000,00

GDC

Francisco Rodriguez

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y Francisco Rodríguez Nuevo Índice Encadenado.

162

Anexo 5: Índice del PIB y Deflactor base 1984 desde 1783-2009. GDP index 1783=100 and Deflator 1984=100.

1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796 1797 1798 1799 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820

Index GDP dollars 1990 100,00 90,82 88,43 98,55 120,83 121,26 116,73 113,42 123,51 99,82 129,01 104,90 116,06 120,01 120,94 123,26 119,35 78,59 103,51 89,89 94,00 85,71 99,16 106,92 88,79 71,88 89,49 82,44 83,02 72,40 71,06 66,51 83,26 79,92 100,10 97,05 85,78 82,87

Deflator 1984 4,20 4,75 4,94 4,76 3,66 3,66 3,66 3,66 3,66 5,12 3,66 4,76 3,66 3,66 3,75 3,11 3,29 5,12 3,31 4,92 4,54 4,62 3,66 3,66 4,57 4,54 4,62 4,59 3,66 4,13 4,13 4,13 4,19 4,39 3,60 3,78 4,19 4,27

163

1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863

82,88 70,70 82,75 74,78 66,48 88,84 73,05 78,80 75,77 98,04 97,09 109,46 111,31 112,51 110,36 102,41 96,62 86,81 81,55 77,64 85,94 96,94 89,59 90,10 90,28 92,25 88,13 88,11 80,90 95,67 92,22 96,02 102,82 104,25 108,39 82,97 97,28 94,94 94,73 100,87 109,43 96,41 88,95

4,42 5,36 5,33 5,68 5,79 5,56 5,00 4,45 4,57 3,75 3,62 3,52 3,58 3,62 3,72 3,76 3,90 3,85 3,88 3,89 3,89 3,63 3,77 3,83 3,60 3,64 3,72 4,01 4,24 3,60 3,80 3,76 3,72 3,89 4,24 4,13 3,69 3,76 3,75 3,84 3,87 3,91 3,87

164

1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906

86,25 91,94 90,20 82,20 82,64 90,96 90,49 89,09 89,68 96,76 105,88 94,78 97,95 99,79 106,25 104,52 111,25 109,85 108,54 113,98 119,83 110,62 118,50 122,64 122,79 127,57 136,64 128,41 116,28 116,95 114,85 124,74 108,67 111,92 110,02 92,21 94,79 90,54 84,65 90,37 91,79 92,58 91,34

3,96 3,97 4,04 4,17 4,37 4,55 4,78 5,02 5,06 5,04 4,98 5,16 5,33 5,55 5,29 5,40 5,22 5,04 4,92 4,74 4,90 5,13 4,95 4,49 4,54 4,39 4,18 4,23 4,40 4,88 4,87 4,96 5,18 5,43 5,64 5,61 5,83 6,03 6,30 6,54 6,78 7,08 7,43

165

1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

88,62 86,68 86,93 85,91 81,95 87,87 90,24 103,60 103,68 96,87 100,35 104,34 100,89 97,84 94,68 102,30 107,66 111,35 117,29 124,27 126,24 147,00 150,70 149,93 148,98 134,62 149,46 156,40 184,94 200,40 199,42 219,51 231,81 244,16 237,84 204,99 226,96 245,01 297,45 341,12 333,06 395,50 400,19

7,65 8,18 8,47 8,95 9,33 9,85 10,21 10,30 10,86 11,60 12,06 12,78 15,01 16,16 12,78 11,76 11,61 12,49 13,02 13,57 13,06 13,02 12,39 11,64 11,16 10,45 9,47 8,88 8,33 8,87 9,72 9,36 9,94 9,85 9,45 9,85 10,60 11,26 11,66 12,72 15,02 16,15 16,13

166

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

433,46 463,37 476,76 486,33 512,99 538,17 570,30 611,15 595,53 618,66 620,39 626,74 658,12 678,11 718,49 735,30 726,48 730,51 743,66 750,41 783,25 778,09 775,37 796,06 816,76 838,93 879,94 906,72 895,26 877,96 833,63 807,29 790,15 725,56 696,84 680,24 704,85 710,79 732,79 653,17 678,38 727,36 754,18

14,99 14,77 14,79 14,75 14,89 14,94 15,40 16,13 16,41 15,41 15,28 15,31 15,34 15,65 15,79 15,87 16,16 16,37 16,88 16,61 17,34 18,48 19,26 21,59 31,19 30,94 32,54 35,14 37,36 45,30 56,55 63,65 64,56 68,22 100,00 110,42 109,12 149,98 177,72 336,19 476,51 578,72 742,18

167

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

739,70 706,88 719,46 703,40 733,33 721,22 665,24 677,19 687,32 615,17 557,43 647,91 702,66 759,08 807,44 832,38 792,27

977,05 1.591,52 2.415,29 5.205,55 6.972,70 8.289,86 10.461,20 13.542,32 14.625,29 19.454,98 26.251,33 35.164,63 45.574,79 53.734,65 61.344,76 80.407,14 87.149,20

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología

168

Anexo 6: Consumo, Oferta, Demanda per cápita en bolívares a precios de 1984 siguiendo los parámetros usados por el Banco Central de Venezuela en los informes económicos anuales. Private Consumption, Aggregate supply, Aggregate domestic supply and Aggregate domestic demand per capita in 1984 Bolivares using the parameters of the Central Bank of Venezuela. Consumo Privado

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864

per cápita Bs 1984 3.153,15 3.084,87 3.492,23 3.482,91 3.483,65 3.324,29 3.130,16 2.894,44 2.531,89 2.421,23 2.481,19 2.468,03 2.573,22 2.525,29 2.498,60 2.472,81 2.434,68 2.431,74 2.434,67 2.324,34 2.745,83 2.620,21 2.692,05 2.778,61 3.000,36 3.034,92 2.305,93 2.989,44 2.794,38 2.920,98 2.932,93 2.978,39 2.770,89 2.771,63 2.709,27

Oferta Global per cápita Bs1984 3.772,84 3.888,61 4.332,48 4.369,28 4.521,66 4.365,84 4.285,87 3.838,84 3.643,96 3.639,11 3.654,75 3.807,54 4.071,13 3.692,13 3.744,85 3.860,33 3.843,59 3.545,68 3.408,49 3.267,49 4.029,57 3.899,08 3.896,31 4.245,79 4.323,07 4.355,39 3.615,96 4.151,81 4.130,00 4.017,43 4.040,19 4.264,18 3.729,88 3.400,67 3.850,39

Oferta Interna per cápita 1984 3.267,56 3.053,47 3.510,42 3.581,23 3.514,83 3.522,30 3.048,30 3.078,35 2.582,14 2.153,17 1.924,86 2.365,04 2.844,63 2.694,83 2.661,23 2.622,62 2.718,99 2.746,61 2.873,82 2.510,80 2.844,83 2.716,36 2.973,18 3.087,05 3.162,90 3.397,19 2.338,83 2.759,30 2.663,20 2.785,80 3.209,04 3.527,06 3.155,88 2.945,15 2.312,57

Demanda Agregada Interna per cápita 1984 3.505,12 3.533,34 3.955,59 3.963,53 4.043,09 3.804,83 3.632,15 3.308,85 2.981,19 2.929,30 2.934,76 2.937,83 3.258,06 3.017,29 3.134,20 3.049,77 3.131,40 2.950,53 2.866,87 2.812,44 3.359,53 3.253,95 3.305,34 3.543,77 3.685,00 3.754,47 2.944,20 3.610,47 3.327,73 3.236,89 3.513,47 3.607,92 3.215,89 2.989,78 3.177,00

169

1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907

2.723,49 2.746,64 2.735,55 2.705,18 2.680,68 2.638,25 2.625,57 2.685,08 3.023,56 3.065,24 2.893,98 2.865,45 2.923,05 3.176,73 3.206,21 3.257,62 3.194,77 3.015,45 3.248,48 3.453,64 3.175,56 3.424,91 3.374,02 3.395,30 3.440,19 3.413,71 3.378,49 3.165,74 3.041,56 3.085,41 3.161,35 3.012,28 3.231,10 3.233,50 2.753,48 2.752,96 2.752,57 2.711,27 2.694,76 2.702,69 2.725,85 2.671,64 2.692,65

3.921,59 3.710,22 3.245,75 3.414,98 3.467,29 3.514,09 3.643,26 3.741,08 4.138,83 4.400,17 4.187,07 4.248,02 4.181,03 4.212,65 4.188,39 4.394,55 4.508,05 4.735,08 4.773,13 4.862,64 4.545,22 4.940,55 5.192,04 5.209,58 5.429,72 5.626,78 5.361,15 4.678,29 4.822,64 4.660,77 4.985,43 4.470,18 4.350,38 4.465,78 3.710,96 3.782,60 3.694,24 3.205,00 3.596,16 3.564,39 3.576,81 3.545,48 3.459,50

2.625,23 2.753,17 2.600,38 2.511,28 3.063,15 2.928,37 2.697,47 2.661,75 2.812,62 3.197,40 2.567,87 2.762,84 2.926,36 3.377,30 3.260,82 3.521,99 3.356,25 3.004,41 3.331,78 3.706,13 3.381,68 3.540,65 3.545,54 3.546,09 3.679,73 4.175,59 3.846,73 3.605,83 3.500,75 3.537,20 3.916,90 3.319,31 3.653,94 3.375,64 2.894,53 2.974,44 2.808,59 2.834,37 2.846,57 2.979,42 3.060,08 2.983,61 2.888,85

3.197,39 3.118,33 2.987,12 3.032,55 3.007,84 2.829,19 2.935,06 2.923,97 3.292,37 3.417,16 3.319,92 3.525,73 3.452,80 3.639,07 3.694,23 3.722,88 3.813,37 3.746,01 4.015,30 4.108,64 3.778,53 4.073,74 4.251,54 4.215,32 4.373,66 4.322,85 4.242,01 3.776,24 3.844,50 3.761,03 4.004,24 3.689,30 3.759,54 3.758,92 3.123,00 3.206,46 3.167,61 2.943,59 3.087,51 3.126,48 3.111,88 3.105,04 3.049,79

170

1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

2.626,22 2.644,39 2.624,95 2.622,96 2.606,56 2.708,94 3.231,30 3.206,46 3.026,61 3.192,84 3.055,35 2.940,01 3.128,09 2.801,49 3.066,22 3.135,41 3.041,42 3.029,39 3.243,26 3.026,77 3.043,47 2.984,77 3.024,25 3.069,45 3.049,33 3.502,25 3.531,89 3.935,76 4.137,27 4.015,64 4.328,37 4.471,55 4.625,25 4.426,27 3.780,65 4.137,09 4.448,50 5.404,48 6.203,31 6.081,90 7.289,21 7.473,02

3.343,40 3.376,07 3.426,70 3.490,60 3.545,66 3.552,41 3.917,05 4.021,36 3.878,23 3.836,38 4.038,32 4.064,31 3.936,04 3.635,17 4.046,10 4.417,23 4.744,53 5.129,32 5.577,84 5.465,88 6.449,13 6.473,38 6.173,01 5.809,16 5.263,25 5.768,21 6.354,37 7.290,88 8.099,67 8.316,63 9.092,94 9.466,15 9.825,08 9.574,40 8.074,54 8.801,55 10.221,44 12.655,34 14.417,95 15.294,68 18.750,56 18.175,95

2.864,05 2.846,45 2.721,76 2.373,79 2.742,32 2.887,07 3.478,36 3.386,95 3.031,23 3.331,96 3.409,24 3.144,69 3.051,03 3.122,76 3.268,24 3.287,04 3.209,76 3.244,89 3.308,86 3.552,65 4.046,47 4.298,24 4.528,03 4.826,73 4.346,58 4.930,61 4.795,45 5.935,11 6.203,76 5.933,33 6.632,29 7.122,79 7.645,17 7.397,50 6.593,35 7.384,24 7.271,69 8.630,51 9.970,93 8.490,61 9.513,13 10.456,30

2.937,38 2.972,04 3.000,64 3.047,99 2.958,25 3.037,45 3.531,81 3.584,06 3.487,49 3.530,98 3.440,82 3.424,96 3.667,52 3.210,19 3.558,29 3.845,82 3.906,80 4.132,39 4.501,39 4.109,36 4.525,38 4.460,33 4.339,07 3.896,58 3.864,28 4.305,19 4.699,97 5.259,12 6.130,07 6.105,69 6.977,38 7.505,10 7.977,84 6.935,73 6.290,50 7.176,21 7.871,64 10.076,02 11.074,02 11.112,92 13.230,98 13.197,95

171

1830 1832 1834 1836 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1850 1852 1854 1856 1858 1860 1862 1864 1866 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología

Tasa de Copertura de la Demanda Agregada Interna por La Oferta Interna 1830-1949

1,40

1,20

1,00

0,80

0,60

0,40

0,20

0,00

Serie1

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología

172

Anexo 7: Deuda/ PIB. Total Public Debt/GDP in millions of current Bolivares and percent.

1838 1840 1843 1844 1846 1850 1854 1856 1857 1859 1862 1863 1868 1869 1872 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1908 1909 1910 1915

Deuda Total Millones de BS 95,10 132,07 119 115,96 114,04 118,60 139,51 186,97 200,40 231,45 238,46 256,82 360,55 367,24 344,14 107,40 106,97 106,50 106,16 105,91 105,51 105,27 135,64 131,65 193,62 194,79 195,08 192,45 189,87 239,11 244,62 233,60 222,90 244,70 218,10 218,20 197,80 155,70

PIB Deuda/ PIB millones de BS 126,14 75,39 119,33 110,68 141,17 84,30 146,66 79,07 147,66 77,23 162,22 73,11 201,40 69,27 174,58 107,10 183,49 109,22 188,01 123,11 206,02 115,75 190,00 135,17 212,38 169,77 246,65 148,89 274,80 125,23 425,47 25,24 443,43 24,12 419,03 25,42 428,29 24,79 435,24 24,33 450,36 23,43 458,04 22,98 453,20 29,93 505,61 26,04 465,06 41,63 504,62 38,60 517,19 37,72 467,38 41,18 468,01 40,57 458,03 52,20 511,05 47,87 541,81 43,11 577,37 38,61 600,52 40,75 636,87 34,25 665,47 32,79 699,31 28,29 1.057,49 14,72

173

1920 1925 1930 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

131,60 92,30 50,70 1,00 1,00 10,00 25,00 26,00 25,00 31,00 23,00 23,00 23,00 15,00 15,00 177,00 305,00 458,00 702,00 699,00 1.355,00 1.168,00 1.325,00 2.678,00 2.777,00 2.576,00 2.230,00 1.930,00 2.128,00 2.354,00 2.829,00 3.528,00 4.383,00 5.491,00 6.482,00 7.210,00 8.434,00 10.176,00 12.801,00 22.397,00 32.386,85 44.631,84 56.504,46

1.531,62 1.524,65 1.889,83 3.229,73 3.087,35 2.881,71 3.540,21 4.198,71 5.463,16 7.041,86 8.358,32 10.996,54 11.446,00 11.826,00 13.007,00 13.981,00 14.806,00 16.377,00 17.893,00 20.400,00 23.847,00 24.585,00 24.904,00 25.671,00 27.024,00 29.525,00 32.186,00 35.637,00 37.925,00 39.516,00 41.625,00 45.155,00 46.283,00 52.025,00 57.141,00 61.502,00 73.253,00 112.234,00 118.098,00 135.104,00 155.706,00 169.060,00 207.737,00

8,59 6,05 2,68 0,03 0,03 0,35 0,71 0,62 0,46 0,44 0,28 0,21 0,20 0,13 0,12 1,27 2,06 2,80 3,92 3,43 5,68 4,75 5,32 10,43 10,28 8,72 6,93 5,42 5,61 5,96 6,80 7,81 9,47 10,55 11,34 11,72 11,51 9,07 10,84 16,58 20,80 26,40 27,20

174

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

57.957,83 63.601,38 76.603,48 80.756,78 132.322,68 168.236,24 485.747,80 522.315,75 551.041,57 1.463.539,81 1.741.355,40 2.250.781,57 2.937.484,41 3.975.895,29 6.436.977,62 10.086.350,58 14.659.965,64 14.386.500,79 15.604.045,70 18.396.826,00 23.657.740,52 28.907.318,70 51.116.238,68 65.368.954,67 89.326.894,44 115.552.989,70

254.201,00 285.208,00 291.268,00 290.492,00 420.072,00 464.741,00 489.172,00 696.421,00 873.283,00 1.510.361,00 2.279.261,00 3.037.492,00 4.131.483,00 5.453.903,00 8.675.172,00 13.685.686,00 29.437.682,00 41.943.151,00 50.012.967,00 59.344.600,00 79.655.692,00 88.945.596,00 107.840.166,00 134.227.833,00 212.683.082,00 304.086.815,00

22,80 22,30 26,30 27,80 31,50 36,20 99,30 75,00 63,10 96,90 76,40 74,10 71,10 72,90 74,20 73,70 49,80 34,30 31,20 31,00 29,70 32,50 47,40 48,70 42,00 38,00

Fuentes Cálculos Propios, Memorias de Hacienda varios años, La Economía venezolana en los últimos 35 años BCV 1976, Hernández María F, et al Determinantes y Vulnerabilidad de la Deuda Publica en Venezuela 1970-2005 BCV.

175

Anexo 8 Exportaciones per cápita y consumo per cápita. Exports and Consumption per capita in current Bolivares and index number from 1830-1949.

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867

Exportaciones en Bolívares Índice Consumo per cápita Índice Corrientes per cápita 1830=100 en Bs Corrientes 1830=100 10,03 100,00 118,12 100,00 12,86 128,22 111,65 94,53 13,25 132,16 122,81 103,98 14,51 144,66 124,54 105,43 17,34 172,88 126,21 106,85 20,85 207,85 123,52 104,57 24,56 244,85 117,58 99,54 20,67 206,11 112,89 95,57 25,49 254,13 97,36 82,43 27,56 274,84 94,02 79,60 27,98 278,96 96,41 81,62 33,81 337,10 95,94 81,22 29,50 294,10 93,35 79,03 25,46 253,91 95,29 80,67 23,40 233,28 95,73 81,04 29,21 291,28 89,12 75,45 25,91 258,34 88,57 74,99 22,14 220,76 90,46 76,58 21,73 216,64 97,67 82,68 19,31 192,51 98,62 83,49 24,13 240,63 98,90 83,72 24,50 244,28 99,50 84,24 22,22 221,57 101,22 85,70 26,14 260,68 103,48 87,60 24,81 247,39 116,67 98,77 25,46 253,86 128,58 108,86 27,73 276,50 95,19 80,59 19,98 199,20 110,32 93,40 30,16 300,74 105,05 88,94 29,24 291,54 109,42 92,63 20,21 201,56 112,56 95,29 25,42 253,51 115,39 97,69 20,09 200,37 108,33 91,71 15,89 158,39 107,15 90,72 26,64 265,60 107,17 90,73 28,74 286,60 108,09 91,51 23,91 238,37 110,94 93,92 10,77 107,42 113,95 96,47

176

1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910

16,71 20,92 32,76 35,57 40,92 42,67 48,98 44,74 38,48 40,39 30,35 26,68 35,03 35,02 48,65 35,92 36,98 39,35 42,89 42,25 45,10 46,33 54,46 47,30 39,67 47,73 43,78 48,69 40,43 32,07 39,85 32,98 33,58 31,77 16,47 33,28 29,70 32,90 32,73 31,36 33,20 34,21 38,11

166,58 208,59 326,63 354,72 408,02 425,44 488,37 446,13 383,73 402,71 302,59 266,02 349,33 349,22 485,08 358,21 368,74 392,34 427,65 421,31 449,73 461,95 543,07 471,62 395,51 475,94 436,52 485,45 403,16 319,76 397,33 328,84 334,78 316,82 164,21 331,85 296,15 328,08 326,36 312,65 331,08 341,11 380,02

118,18 122,06 126,18 131,89 134,47 152,41 152,73 149,32 152,67 162,11 168,08 173,10 169,91 161,07 148,32 153,99 169,39 162,98 169,46 151,58 154,02 150,92 142,59 142,78 139,21 148,42 150,13 156,86 155,97 175,37 182,28 154,44 160,43 166,08 170,81 176,32 183,31 192,91 198,54 206,07 214,77 223,91 234,80

100,05 103,33 106,83 111,66 113,84 129,03 129,30 126,42 129,25 137,24 142,29 146,55 143,85 136,36 125,57 130,37 143,41 137,98 143,47 128,33 130,40 127,77 120,72 120,88 117,85 125,66 127,10 132,80 132,05 148,47 154,32 130,75 135,82 140,60 144,61 149,27 155,19 163,32 168,08 174,46 181,82 189,56 198,78

177

1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

41,28 57,86 52,58 39,69 47,51 45,33 36,83 76,39 95,97 43,40 54,33 57,38 66,34 104,62 129,79 146,08 177,16 250,46 249,34 213,48 213,46 146,14 138,49 146,97 169,29 174,77 214,93 198,09 195,01 181,96 249,30 175,74 172,28 264,47 300,69 425,21 628,07 891,54 803,13

411,61 576,93 524,32 395,77 473,74 451,94 367,23 761,67 956,92 432,79 541,75 572,16 661,50 1.043,15 1.294,18 1.456,59 1.766,51 2.497,34 2.486,19 2.128,67 2.128,42 1.457,15 1.380,85 1.465,48 1.688,04 1.742,69 2.143,06 1.975,21 1.944,47 1.814,38 2.485,80 1.752,31 1.717,83 2.637,08 2.998,22 4.239,80 6.262,57 8.889,64 8.008,09

244,63 256,75 276,62 332,92 348,37 351,08 385,04 390,61 441,31 505,63 358,16 360,69 364,03 379,82 394,41 440,13 395,30 396,24 369,70 352,05 342,58 318,54 331,52 313,76 327,94 367,12 390,36 405,29 444,66 455,61 418,19 372,42 438,52 500,69 630,04 788,81 913,46 1.177,38 1.205,67

207,11 217,37 234,18 281,86 294,93 297,23 325,98 330,69 373,61 428,07 303,22 305,36 308,19 321,56 333,91 372,62 334,66 335,46 312,99 298,04 290,03 269,67 280,66 265,63 277,64 310,81 330,48 343,12 376,45 385,72 354,04 315,29 371,25 423,88 533,40 667,81 773,34 996,77 1.020,72

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología, Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944. Academia Nacional de la Historia. Caracas. 178

Exports in Bs 1830-1949

1830 1834 1838 1842 1846 1850 1854 1858 1862 1866 1870 1874 1878 1882 1886 1890 1894 1898 1902 1906 1910 1914 1918 1922 1926 1930 1934 1938 1942 1946

4.750.000.000,00 4.500.000.000,00 4.250.000.000,00 4.000.000.000,00 3.750.000.000,00 3.500.000.000,00 3.250.000.000,00 3.000.000.000,00 2.750.000.000,00 2.500.000.000,00 2.250.000.000,00 2.000.000.000,00 1.750.000.000,00 1.500.000.000,00 1.250.000.000,00 1.000.000.000,00 750.000.000,00 500.000.000,00 250.000.000,00 0,00

Serie1

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología, Veloz Economía y Finanzas de Venezuela 1830-1944. Academia Nacional de la Historia. Caracas.

179

Anexo 9: Composición del PIB en Bolívares de 1984. Composition GDP in 1984 millions of Bolivares. Consumption Población

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865

865.174 888.743 912.312 935.881 959.450 983.018 1.006.588 1.030.157 1.053.726 1.077.295 1.100.864 1.124.433 1.148.002 1.171.571 1.195.140 1.218.709 1.237.062 1.255.408 1.273.754 1.292.101 1.310.447 1.328.793 1.347.139 1.365.486 1.383.832 1.402.178 1.420.524 1.438.871 1.457.217 1.475.564 1.493.910 1.512.256 1.530.602 1.548.949 1.567.295 1.585.641

Consumo Millones de Bs 1984 2.728,09 2.741,65 3.186,00 3.259,59 3.342,38 3.267,83 3.150,78 2.981,73 2.667,98 2.608,37 2.731,44 2.775,13 2.954,06 2.958,55 2.986,17 3.013,63 3.011,84 3.052,82 3.101,16 3.003,28 3.598,26 3.481,72 3.626,57 3.794,15 4.151,99 4.255,50 3.275,62 4.301,42 4.072,02 4.310,09 4.381,52 4.504,09 4.241,12 4.293,11 4.246,22 4.318,47

Gov. Spending Private investment Net X Gastos del Gobierno Millones de Bs 1984 136,21 157,34 160,23 173,23 160,06 161,42 217,54 187,95 188,12 248,98 185,31 198,55 398,99 249,25 390,53 326,03 503,40 330,28 353,00 401,93 485,28 492,69 378,48 633,43 594,22 753,65 607,33 613,06 520,69 284,41 761,73 868,40 624,02 291,33 600,50 638,38

Inversión Privada

Export. Neto

Millones de Bs 1984 Millones de Bs 1984 168,30 13,04 241,22 -55,36 262,49 -31,14 276,56 10,97 376,73 -23,83 310,95 136,87 287,75 35,16 238,94 154,26 285,30 138,94 298,36 -35,72 314,00 -159,56 329,70 166,93 387,20 229,39 327,15 206,42 369,09 82,27 377,09 233,63 358,48 185,42 321,04 245,58 197,50 349,37 228,73 99,1 318,93 101,78 349,41 71,44 447,49 174,33 411,38 167,48 353,20 80,24 255,27 170,81 299,34 47,15 280,51 -222,9 256,49 100,35 181,73 243,06 105,54 166,04 83,60 435,07 57,10 347,43 46,56 283,65 132,56 -149,7 113,05 120,54

180

1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908

1.603.987 1.622.334 1.640.680 1.659.026 1.677.372 1.695.719 1.714.064 1.732.411 1.766.502 1.800.593 1.834.684 1.868.775 1.902.866 1.936.957 1.971.048 2.005.139 2.026.782 2.048.425 2.070.068 2.091.712 2.113.355 2.134.998 2.156.642 2.178.285 2.199.928 2.221.572 2.238.492 2.255.413 2.272.334 2.289.255 2.306.175 2.323.095 2.340.015 2.356.935 2.373.855 2.390.775 2.407.695 2.424.615 2.441.535 2.458.455 2.475.375 2.492.225 2.509.215

4.405,52 4.437,96 4.438,32 4.447,31 4.425,32 4.452,22 4.602,40 5.238,04 5.414,75 5.210,87 5.257,19 5.462,52 6.044,89 6.210,28 6.420,92 6.405,95 6.111,65 6.654,25 7.149,26 6.642,36 7.238,05 7.203,51 7.322,44 7.493,70 7.509,92 7.505,48 7.086,48 6.859,98 7.011,09 7.237,12 6.946,84 7.506,15 7.566,44 6.489,77 6.535,13 6.580,77 6.527,91 6.533,75 6.598,70 6.701,36 6.613,31 6.710,70 6.589,74

511,75 350,55 455,56 475,26 266,23 436,59 307,72 339,32 504,81 431,08 458,11 387,37 425,07 435,30 432,64 595,10 508,69 759,42 703,51 603,73 578,91 940,54 824,96 1.040,15 1.176,04 1.058,43 758,98 1.063,95 902,05 1.329,31 916,90 839,08 632,42 432,57 651,79 537,35 373,59 586,41 757,19 711,37 822,82 645,16 582,90

84,43 57,58 81,54 67,50 54,03 88,20 101,75 126,36 116,85 335,86 753,28 602,70 454,68 509,97 484,40 645,28 971,98 811,35 653,37 657,48 792,27 932,95 943,52 993,21 823,98 859,94 607,61 746,99 633,17 600,28 644,41 388,53 597,05 438,35 424,74 454,91 185,74 365,85 277,50 237,68 250,00 244,89 197,85

181,83 -103,93 -113,89 427 657,6 399,02 475,54 317,65 674,13 103,61 -37,24 188,55 296,67 58,83 463,96 238,16 250,79 76,11 363,79 386,79 352,64 250,34 350,48 394,42 1272,29 804,05 818,87 715,4 767,94 1023,13 473,79 563,62 378,59 423,66 408,43 200,34 183,21 324,54 355,06 507,82 394,82 309,99 417,4

181

1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

2.526.135 2.543.055 2.559.975 2.576.895 2.593.815 2.610.735 2.627.655 2.644.575 2.661.495 2.678.415 2.695.335 2.712.255 2.729.175 2.746.095 2.763.015 2.779.935 2.796.855 2.814.131 2.869.152 2.924.174 2.979.195 3.034.217 3.089.239 3.144.260 3.199.282 3.254.303 3.309.325 3.364.347 3.461.631 3.558.916 3.656.201 3.753.486 3.850.771 3.988.875 4.126.979 4.265.083 4.403.187 4.541.291 4.679.395 4.817.499 4.955.603

6.680,07 6.675,38 6.714,70 6.716,83 7.026,49 8.436,07 8.425,47 8.004,08 8.497,72 8.183,48 7.924,30 8.484,16 7.645,76 8.420,13 8.663,17 8.454,95 8.472,77 9.126,96 8.684,26 8.899,64 8.892,20 9.176,22 9.482,27 9.587,90 11.204,69 11.493,84 13.024,69 13.919,21 13.900,66 15.404,30 16.348,88 17.360,81 17.044,56 15.080,53 17.073,67 18.973,23 23.796,92 28.171,04 28.459,60 35.115,74 37.033,31

618,11 689,09 686,95 633,33 635,31 435,11 533,19 500,37 439,06 454,93 453,45 635,07 632,30 612,19 880,68 924,77 1.252,89 1.317,52 1.192,25 1.879,95 2.139,55 2.241,26 1.490,68 1.549,85 1.626,11 2.013,98 2.798,56 3.211,80 3.219,81 3.855,32 3.871,59 3.745,97 3.535,16 3.075,96 3.169,91 3.642,78 4.983,80 7.486,70 8.635,53 10.178,09 12.117,55

209,58 266,30 401,11 272,94 216,75 349,42 459,01 718,46 460,87 577,51 853,65 828,01 483,09 793,07 1.082,18 1.480,91 1.832,01 2.223,08 1.913,86 2.453,40 2.266,44 1.748,17 1.064,51 1.012,52 942,71 1.787,28 1.580,88 3.492,63 4.015,19 5.572,27 7.219,66 8.837,84 6.128,20 6.935,52 9.372,44 10.957,21 15.585,90 14.632,65 14.906,58 18.446,36 16.252,95

351,69 187,15 -296,43 478,62 472,83 433,12 315,56 -86,63 141,57 745,89 483,922 -471,89 460,62 271,52 17,45 195,54 153,04 -163,33 1147,38 2112,46 2757,17 3068,95 4390,92 2957,61 3340,75 2847,33 4480,4 3437,18 3528,41 3150,47 2886,09 2842,46 5969,54 4162,18 3783,13 3731,62 2496,18 5088,12 3648,62 4339,92 5541,22

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología. 182

Anexo 10: Graficos Inversiones 1870-1935. Public and Private Investment for Presidential periods 1870-1935

130.000.000 125.000.000 120.000.000 115.000.000 110.000.000 105.000.000 100.000.000 95.000.000 90.000.000 85.000.000 80.000.000 75.000.000 70.000.000 65.000.000 60.000.000 55.000.000 50.000.000 45.000.000 40.000.000 35.000.000 30.000.000 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000 5.000.000 0

Inversiones Publicas en Infraestrutura por Periodos Presidenciales 1870-1935 en Bolivares Corrientes

1870- 1877- 1878- 1884- 1886- 1888- 1890- 1892- 1898- 1899- 1908- 1913- 1914- 1922- 1929- 19311877 1878 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1898 1899 1908 1913 1914 1922 1929 1931 1935

183

Inversiones Privadas por Periodo Presidencial 1870-1935 en Bolivares Corrientes 1.800.000.000 1.750.000.000 1.700.000.000 1.650.000.000 1.600.000.000 1.550.000.000 1.500.000.000 1.450.000.000 1.400.000.000 1.350.000.000 1.300.000.000 1.250.000.000 1.200.000.000 1.150.000.000 1.100.000.000 1.050.000.000 1.000.000.000 950.000.000 900.000.000 850.000.000 800.000.000 750.000.000 700.000.000 650.000.000 600.000.000 550.000.000 500.000.000 450.000.000 400.000.000 350.000.000 300.000.000 250.000.000 200.000.000 150.000.000 100.000.000 50.000.000 0 1870- 1877- 1878- 1884- 1886- 1888- 1890- 1892- 1898- 1899- 1908- 1913- 1914- 1922- 1929- 19311877 1878 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1898 1899 1908 1913 1914 1922 1929 1931 1935

Fuente para ambos graficos: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y Anuarios Estadisticos del Ministerio de Fomento

184

Anexo 11 :Indice de Inflacion 1830-1949 General Inflation Food Inflation años

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869

INDICE GENERAL DE PRECIOS 100=1830 100 97 94 95 97 99 100 104 103 104 104 104 97 101 102 96 97 99 107 113 96 101 100 99 104 113 110 99 100 100 102 103 104 103 106 106 108 111 117 122

INDICE INFLACION ALIMENTOS 100=1830 100 101 97 97 96 96 95 95 94 95 94 97 98 101 98 96 97 102 111 108 94 103 105 107 111 121 113 99 102 101 102 102 105 104 106 109 110 112 115 117

185

1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920

128 135 134 135 133 138 143 149 142 145 140 135 132 127 131 137 133 120 122 118 112 113 118 131 130 133 139 145 151 150 156 162 169 175 182 190 199 205 219 227 240 250 264 274 276 291 311 323 343 402 433

120 123 125 128 125 129 128 141 139 138 133 126 125 120 125 121 126 108 111 107 103 104 103 117 122 127 131 140 146 145 151 158 165 173 182 190 200 209 221 232 245 257 272 254 268 271 275 284 298 307 352

186

1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

343 315 311 335 349 364 350 349 332 312 299 280 254 238 223 238 260 251 266 264 253 264 284 302 312 341 402 433 432

293 278 277 285 290 306 296 302 295 290 280 261 254 231 214 221 242 252 272 257 259 295 331 361 363 391 468 471 447

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología

187

Precios añil y cacao. Prices of Indigo and Cocoa Bolivares/KG

años 1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796 1797 1798 1799 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821

añil Bs /kg 15,796 17,864 18,5614 17,875 13,75 13,75 13,75 13,75 13,75 19,25 13,75 17,875 13,75 13,75 14,08 11,682 12,375 19,25 12,43 18,48 17,05 17,38 13,75 13,75 17,182 17,05 17,38 17,27 13,75 15,51 15,51 15,51 15,73 16,5 13,53 14,19 15,73 16,06 16,61

Cacao Bs /KG 1 1,03 1,16 1,32 1,32 1,4 1,48 1,2 1,64 1,7 2,041 1,8 1,93 2 1,8 1,8 1,8 1,144 1,103 2,022 2,54 3,357 1,554 1,926 1,693 1,295 1,637 1,398 1,016 1,057 1,016 1,543 2,493 2,567 1,966 2,177 2,328 2,24 2,148

188

1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830

20,13 20,02 21,34 21,78 20,9 18,81 16,72 17,16 14,08

2,07 2,3 2,49 2,26 2,287 1,929 1,873 2,243 1,93

Fuente: elaboración propia ver apartado sobre la metodología y Yoston Ferrigni Crisis de la economia colonial en venenuela Tomos I y II. Pacheco Troconis J. G 2000. El Añil en Venezuela. Historia de un Cultivo olvidado en Venezuela Tomo I y II Tesis Doctoral. Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona.

189

Anexo 12: Precios de algunos productos de exportacion y consumo en Venezuela. Prices of Export goods and some basic products of Domestic Consumption

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866

Cacao

Café

Arroz

Maíz

Carne Salada

carne

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Kg

Papelón 800gr-1 Kg

0,65 0,68 0,68 0,74 0,84 0,93 0,81 0,64 0,68 0,71 0,68 0,64 0,78 0,74 0,74 0,79 0,83 0,91 0,80 0,93 0,79 1,06 0,94 0,79 0,68 0,99 0,91 1,19 1,45 0,44 0,50 0,58 0,66 0,75 1,15 1,18 0,75

0,47 0,46 0,50 0,56 0,75 0,79 0,63 0,46 0,64 0,51 0,59 0,51 0,32 0,39 0,41 0,42 0,46 0,39 0,47 0,38 0,35 0,41 0,49 0,40 0,41 0,50 0,43 0,60 0,60 0,63 0,57 0,57 0,54 0,52 0,75 0,61 0,49

1,81 1,56 1,50 1,44 1,41 1,34 1,34 1,25 1,19 1,16 1,13 1,06 1,03 1,00 0,97 0,91 0,88 0,84 0,81 0,78 0,75 0,72 0,69 0,69 0,66 0,63 0,31 0,44 0,44 0,44 0,44 0,46 0,44 0,44 0,47 0,47 0,47

0,59 0,52 0,63 0,65 0,59 0,54 0,50 0,45 0,41 0,39 0,36 0,33 0,30 0,28 0,25 0,23 0,21 0,19 0,18 0,17 0,15 0,19 0,23 0,30 0,39 0,48 0,19 0,32 0,32 0,33 0,33 0,33 0,34 0,34 0,34 0,36 0,36

0,12 0,15 0,14 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,13 0,15 0,18 0,20 0,23 0,23 0,22 0,20 0,26 0,39 0,38 0,30 0,29 0,28 0,27 0,26 0,25 0,24 0,23 0,23 0,22 0,21 0,21 0,19 0,19 0,18 0,18 0,17

0,14 0,14 0,15 0,17 0,17 0,18 0,19 0,21 0,21 0,22 0,23 0,25 0,26 0,29 0,30 0,32 0,34 0,36 0,39 0,40 0,43 0,45 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,98 1,05 1,10 1,17 1,25 1,33

0,11 0,14 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,10 0,12 0,11 0,12 0,12 0,11 0,15 0,11 0,11 0,13 0,10 0,12 0,10 0,12 0,13 0,14 0,16 0,17 0,18 0,19 0,15 0,20 0,21 0,20 0,18 0,17 0,16 0,14 0,17

190

1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909

0,75 0,75 0,75 0,86 0,99 1,15 1,04 0,81 0,59 0,60 0,60 0,90 0,85 0,79 0,77 0,80 0,81 0,83 0,83 1,02 0,73 0,68 0,67 0,74 0,73 0,66 0,65 0,57 0,52 0,39 0,65 0,64 0,75 0,80 0,77 0,74 0,57 0,59 0,53 0,60 0,67 0,56 0,54

0,54 0,59 0,61 0,72 0,85 1,01 0,61 1,64 1,74 1,28 1,90 1,50 1,38 0,91 1,01 1,07 0,94 0,91 0,91 1,19 1,39 1,39 1,65 1,77 1,65 1,47 1,56 1,64 1,39 1,20 1,20 0,72 0,84 0,70 0,67 0,64 0,66 0,79 0,87 0,86 0,86 0,86 0,87

0,44 0,49 0,50 0,50 0,56 0,38 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,13 0,14 0,15 0,11 0,15 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,11 0,10 0,11 0,12 0,12 0,13 0,14 0,15 0,15 0,16 0,17 0,18 0,19 0,20 0,22 0,23 0,24 0,26 0,27

0,36 0,37 0,37 0,37 0,39 0,39 0,66 0,70 0,66 0,66 0,77 0,66 0,88 0,77 0,70 0,66 0,55 0,55 0,73 0,99 0,66 0,66 0,62 0,44 0,44 0,33 0,42 0,44 0,55 0,44 0,77 0,81 0,22 0,26 0,31 0,35 0,40 0,44 0,48 0,53 0,59 0,66 0,73

0,17 0,16 0,16 0,15 0,14 0,14 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,52 0,50 0,50 0,22 0,24 0,26 0,52 0,17 0,17 0,13 0,14 0,15 0,16 0,17 0,19 0,20 0,21 0,23 0,24 0,26 0,28 0,30 0,32 0,34 0,36 0,39 0,41 0,44 0,47 0,51 0,54

1,42 1,50 1,60 1,69 1,80 1,91 1,91 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,48 0,52 0,50 0,50 0,22 0,24 0,26 0,52 0,17 0,17 0,13 0,14 0,15 0,16 0,17 0,19 0,20 0,21 0,23 0,24 0,26 0,28 0,30 0,32 0,34 0,36 0,39 0,41 0,44 0,47 0,51

0,19 0,18 0,13 0,19 0,22 0,20 0,19 0,20 0,24 0,21 0,25 0,21 0,22 0,22 0,23 0,26 0,25 0,24 0,24 0,30 0,25 0,23 0,24 0,26 0,27 0,32 0,28 0,36 0,26 0,29 0,26 0,30 0,28 0,31 0,31 0,32 0,29 0,32 0,34 0,33 0,34 0,34 0,35

191

1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935

1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842

0,52 0,55 0,70 0,71 0,63 0,36 0,50 0,72 0,24 0,45 0,39 0,39 0,38 0,21 0,22 0,20 0,25 0,29 0,19 0,26 0,25 0,21 0,23 0,27 0,21 0,26

1,16 1,42 1,43 1,19 1,01 1,02 1,03 0,86 1,40 2,29 1,21 0,68 1,14 1,66 2,25 2,39 2,16 2,03 2,17 1,63 1,24 1,11 1,15 0,80 0,64 0,55

0,29 0,30 0,50 0,67 0,71 0,73 0,93 1,26 1,27 1,65 1,03 0,81 0,71 0,73 0,74 0,75 0,74 0,71 0,66 0,65 0,58 0,53 0,50 0,48 0,50 0,57

0,79 0,86 0,35 0,37 0,57 0,68 0,75 0,51 0,57 0,75 1,01 0,44 0,70 0,70 0,57 0,66 0,97 0,81 0,97 0,77 0,73 0,57 0,42 0,70 0,62 0,53

0,58 0,62 0,66 0,69 0,72 0,75 0,78 0,81 0,85 0,89 0,93 0,97 1,02 1,07 1,12 1,17 1,23 1,29 1,35 1,42 1,00 1,57 2,00 1,50 1,00 1,00

0,54 0,58 0,62 0,66 0,69

caraotas Kg

queso Kg

Papa Kg

Aguardiente botella

Jabón Kg

0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19

0,73 0,73 0,73 0,73 0,73 0,73 0,65 0,58 0,53 0,47 0,70 0,59 0,81

0,13 0,13 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,16 0,16 0,16

0,69 0,96 0,93 0,89 1,36 1,48 1,55 1,56 0,26 0,26 0,26 0,24 0,24

0,44 0,39 0,39 0,41 0,42 0,43 0,44 0,45 0,46 0,47 0,48 0,49 0,51

0,35 0,35 0,47 0,47 0,38 0,36 0,42 0,78 0,75 0,85 1,41 0,74 0,58 0,83 1,00 0,87 1,12 0,93 0,79 0,67 0,65 0,62 0,50 0,44 0,40 0,72

192

1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885

0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,16 0,13 0,17 0,23 0,30 0,40 0,53 0,25 0,28 0,29 0,30 0,31 0,33 0,33 0,34 0,36 0,37 0,38 0,39 0,41 0,43 0,44 0,45 0,47 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,11 0,13 0,22 0,16 0,21 0,11 0,11 0,14 0,32 0,14

0,80 0,53 0,52 0,66 0,77 0,85 0,53 0,78 0,71 0,64 0,63 0,60 0,52 0,45 0,43 0,38 0,39 0,40 0,43 0,47 0,51 0,56 0,61 0,66 0,71 0,78 0,84 0,91 0,99 1,08 1,08 1,08 1,08 1,09 1,09 1,09 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,10 1,11 1,11 1,11

0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,17 0,17 0,18 0,18 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,13 0,14 0,13 0,15 0,16 0,17 0,19 0,20 0,21 0,23 0,25 0,27 0,28 0,31 0,17 0,10 0,02 0,01 0,05 0,15 0,12 0,15 0,18 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,17

0,58 0,92 0,69 0,46 0,53 0,69 0,84 0,85 0,86 0,86 0,84 0,84 0,81 0,77 0,75 0,72 0,69 0,66 0,63 0,59 0,56 0,59 0,62 0,64 0,68 0,71 0,74 0,78 0,81 0,81 0,29 0,29 0,29 0,31 0,31 0,28 0,30 0,33 0,34 0,29 0,29 0,29 0,29

0,52 0,53 0,54 0,56 0,57 0,59 0,60 0,61 0,63 0,64 0,66 0,68 0,69 0,71 0,73 0,74 0,76 0,78 0,80 0,83 0,84 0,86 0,89 0,91 0,93 0,95 0,98 1,00 1,03 1,05 2,00 1,99 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 2,00 1,63 2,00 1,50 1,60 1,69 1,69

193

1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928

0,11 0,13 0,17 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,50 0,52 0,93 0,83 0,68 0,64 0,58 0,75 1,00 0,55 0,63 0,50 0,58 0,71 0,86 0,71 0,78

1,12 1,12 1,12 1,12 1,22 1,22 1,23 1,23 1,23 1,23 1,24 1,24 1,24 1,25 1,30 1,30 1,31 1,31 1,31 1,32 1,36 1,36 1,36 1,37 1,38 1,40 1,39 2,11 2,11 3,11 3,37 3,26 3,16 3,06 3,06 3,06 3,06 3,09 3,11 3,14 2,62 2,10 2,05

0,16 0,16 0,21 0,20 0,19 0,18 0,17 0,19 0,20 0,22 0,24 0,26 0,28 0,31 0,33 0,36 0,39 0,43 0,46 0,50 0,55 0,59 0,65 0,70 0,76 0,83 0,90 0,96 0,25 0,43 0,64 0,42 0,27 0,18 0,18 0,18 0,18 0,19 0,20 0,21 0,38 0,55 0,79

0,29 0,29 0,29 0,20 0,21 0,22 0,26 0,27 0,28 0,29 0,30 0,31 0,33 0,34 0,35 0,37 0,39 0,40 0,42 0,44 0,46 0,49 0,51 0,54 0,56 0,59 1,19 0,99 1,09 1,27 1,26 1,32 1,30 0,89 0,92 0,84 1,07 1,25 1,27 1,23 1,33 1,61 1,49

1,69 1,69 1,69 1,69 1,69 1,69 1,69 1,85 1,92 1,99 2,07 2,16 2,25 2,35 2,45 2,55 2,67 2,69 2,92 3,06 3,20 3,36 3,52 3,70 3,98 4,09 1,00 1,03 1,05 1,07 0,86 1,07 1,15 1,17 1,20 1,16 1,13 1,09 1,06 0,99 1,01 0,99 0,97

194

1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935

0,70 0,66 0,59 0,51 0,60 0,53 0,42

2,15 2,22 2,29 2,06 2,20 2,45 2,20

1,15 1,66 1,50 1,45 1,20 1,09

1,46 1,46 1,70 1,35 1,31 1,45 1,52

0,95 0,90 0,92 0,90 0,30 0,27 0,30

Fuentes : Calculos propios, Carrillo Batalla Cuentas Nacionales de Venezuela 18001935 BCV Diarios de Avisos y de Epoca correspondientes al siglo XIX varios numeros y Anuarios Estadisticos de Venezuela

195

Anexo 13 : Precios del petroleo canasta venezolana. Prices of Venezuelan Oil Basket in current and 1990 dollars.

1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

Precios petróleo 0,88 0,96 0,93 0,80 0,93 0,98 1,01 1,03 1,05 1,05 1,26 1,70 2,14 2,08 2,12 2,00 2,11 2,30 2,31 2,29 2,30 2,59 2,48 2,19 2,08 2,10 2,06 2,03 1,94 1,88 1,88 1,85 1,86 1,81 1,84 2,35 2,52 3,71

Precios petróleo 1990 8,30 8,74 8,63 7,53 8,66 8,70 8,10 8,26 7,80 7,02 7,37 9,23 11,70 11,30 10,70 9,85 10,30 11,20 11,30 11,00 10,70 11,70 11,10 9,66 9,09 9,07 8,79 8,55 8,03 7,57 7,36 6,95 6,63 6,09 5,95 7,34 7,41 9,83

196

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

10,53 10,99 11,25 12,42 12,20 16,30 25,30 29,40 26,80 23,70 25,40 24,67 11,52 15,45 12,83 16,04 19,19 15,09 13,72 12,11 13,23 14,84 18,39 16,32 10,57 16,04 25,91 20,21 21,95 24,82 32,88 48,81 56,35 64,74 86,49 57,08

25,60 25,20 24,30 24,90 22,00 25,90 36,40 39,80 35,20 29,80 30,90 29,40 13,30 17,10 13,50 16,04 18,40 14,10 12,80 11,00 11,70 12,70 15,30 13,30 8,48 12,60 19,70 14,90 15,90 17,60 22,70 32,70 36,50 40,80 52,30 34,80

Fuentes: Ministerio de Energia y Minas PODE: Petróleo y otros datos estadísticos, Dirección de Planificación y Economía de la Energía. Actual Ministerio del Poder Popular Para la Energia y Petroleo

197

Anexo 14: Tipo de Cambio Nominal Bs/ Dólar. Hemos obviado el uso de los cambios oficiales y calculado el tipo de cambio paralelo para el periodo 2003-2008. Pues este ultimo determina los precios internos. Nominal Exchange Rates Dollar/Bolivares from

2003-2008 we calculated and used the non official exchange rate. ANOS 1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863

TIPO DE CAMBIO 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2

198

1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906

5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2 5,2

199

1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949

5,2 5,2 5,4 5,27 5,32 5,35 5,27 5,36 5,26 5,14 5,12 4,42 5,07 5,5 6,02 5,34 5,32 5,38 5,22 5,27 5,24 5,21 5,22 5,41 6,13 6,77 5,27 3,54 3,92 3,93 3,38 3,19 3,19 3,19 3,26 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35

200

1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992

3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,35 3,43 4,54 4,55 4,54 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,4 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,3 8,64 12,53 13,75 19,87 27,88 33,63 38,95 47,16 56,92 68,4

201

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

91,05 148,99 176,39 416,35 487,59 546,55 604,69 678,93 722,66 1158,93 1423,24 1915,22 2331,26 3202,24 4469,01 4504,78 6569,98

Fuente: Izard Estadisticas historicas y Banco Central de Venezuela

Tipo de Cambio Nominal Bolivares por Dolar 1830-2009 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

202

Anexo 15. Evolucion de las economias de Venezuela ( Datos del autor) y Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Brasil y Mexico datos de Maddison. GDP and GDP per capita of Venezuela,( our proposed series) and Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Brasil and Mexico ( Maddison)

1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796 1797 1798 1799 1800 1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817

Venezuela PIB $1990 miles 624,32 579,12 575,69 654,72 818,90 837,90 822,24 814,10 903,00 743,10 977,60 808,96 910,49 957,50 981,00 1.016,30 1.000,00 669,00 887,13 775,57 816,53 749,43 872,80 947,29 791,80 645,17 808,43 749,48 748,24 646,88 629,34 583,87 724,36 689,07 855,22

Pib Per cápita dólares 1990

Chile PIB $1990 miles

Pib per cápita dólares 1990

Colombia PIB $1990 miles

Pib per cápita dólares 1990

1.064,07 966,36 940,95 1.048,62 1.285,74 1.290,24 1.242,05 1.206,88 1.314,23 1.062,12 1.372,76 1.116,23 1.234,94 1.277,04 1.286,86 1.311,62 1.270,02 836,27 1.101,43 956,46 1.000,26 911,99 1.055,12 1.137,69 944,80 764,86 952,26 877,19 883,35 770,38 756,12 707,75 885,95 850,44 1.065,17

203

1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843 1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860

821,51 719,38 688,50 682,14 576,37 685,50 629,30 568,22 771,04 643,06 704,64 687,55 906,96 918,71 1.065,42 1.107,91 1.148,13 1.154,67 1.099,26 1.061,05 976,91 929,13 914,60 1.033,52 1.182,19 1.114,20 1.140,07 1.176,50 1.208,82 1.176,24 1.191,59 1.111,73 1.341,40 1.308,99 1.377,96 1.490,99 1.542,54 1.618,72 1.259,56 1.480,78 1.474,03 1.494,78 1.612,61

1.032,66 912,72 881,77 881,95 752,35 880,56 795,71 707,41 945,32 777,28 838,45 806,24 1.048,30 1.033,72 1.167,83 1.183,84 1.196,66 1.174,62 1.092,07 1.029,99 927,11 862,47 830,80 919,15 1.029,79 951,03 953,92 965,37 977,18 936,94 935,50 860,41 1.023,62 985,10 1.022,88 1.091,92 1.114,69 1.154,44 886,69 1.029,13 1.011,54 1.013,02 1.079,46

535,18 523,41 538,34 548,52 547,50 576,67 594,21 610,25 619,30 636,71 640,62 653,57 676,21 687,74 717,06 748,15 757,57 790,94 809,97 827,12 886,52 904,76 932,14 967,74 988,87 1.025,86 1.067,82 1.098,25 1.151,22 1.241,13 1.313,49 1.358,67 1.408,52 1.386,70 1.435,88 1.511,23 1.538,98 1.599,27 1.680,00 1.745,73 1.815,93

693,73 663,26 666,84 664,15 648,03 667,28 672,29 675,20 670,22 674,13 663,74 662,81 671,43 668,78 683,09 698,38 693,17 709,55 712,63 713,88 750,80 752,08 760,68 775,48 778,28 793,17 811,21 819,93 844,79 895,34 931,63 947,61 966,13 935,53 952,89 986,60 988,47 1.010,67 1.044,68 1.068,22 1.093,50

204

1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903

1.754,44 1.569,41 1.463,64 1.438,29 1.545,77 1.543,75 1.412,25 1.447,86 1.613,30 1.609,16 1.601,09 1.617,76 1.787,38 1.998,51 1.811,13 1.915,36 1.977,80 2.150,62 2.148,56 2.323,57 2.348,12 2.335,81 2.472,24 2.641,34 2.469,00 2.669,03 2.777,82 2.811,81 2.954,76 3.211,13 3.046,07 2.761,33 2.795,43 2.773,92 3.034,73 2.674,96 2.768,91 2.732,34 2.318,32 2.388,54 2.310,12 2.165,26 2.326,14

1.160,15 1.025,35 944,92 917,69 974,86 962,45 870,51 882,48 972,44 959,34 944,20 943,82 1.031,73 1.131,34 1.005,86 1.043,98 1.058,34 1.130,20 1.109,25 1.178,85 1.171,06 1.152,48 1.206,90 1.275,97 1.180,38 1.262,94 1.301,09 1.303,79 1.356,47 1.459,66 1.371,14 1.233,57 1.239,44 1.220,74 1.325,64 1.159,91 1.191,91 1.167,66 983,62 1.006,19 966,27 899,31 959,39

1.827,61 1.832,15 1.913,34 2.026,59 2.107,61 2.165,40 2.092,26 2.208,95 2.443,41 2.508,98 2.515,34 2.705,07 2.885,62 2.765,83 2.995,26 2.963,84 2.869,04 3.043,33 3.506,04 3.939,81 4.078,28 4.418,22 4.445,54 4.484,89 4.351,13 4.535,06 4.852,40 4.660,51 4.781,23 5.128,04 5.546,53 5.435,61 5.705,63 5.611,73 6.005,57 6.039,42 5.905,62 6.621,46 6.662,81 6.492,11 6.654,68 6.945,35 6.555,04

1.083,08 1.068,61 1.098,37 1.145,09 1.172,19 1.185,50 1.127,60 1.171,97 1.276,26 1.290,25 1.273,59 1.348,63 1.416,65 1.337,16 1.426,13 1.389,89 1.325,26 1.384,80 1.571,71 1.740,16 1.775,01 1.895,09 1.879,39 1.869,00 1.787,65 1.837,15 1.938,49 1.836,33 1.858,36 1.966,45 2.098,75 2.029,85 2.103,13 2.042,09 2.157,81 2.142,92 2.069,63 2.292,26 2.278,83 2.194,03 2.222,51 2.292,58 2.138,78

3.890,66

973,15

4.169,00

1.022,06

4.245,00 4.374,00

1.019,94 1.029,90

205

1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946

2.379,12 2.429,68 2.406,67 2.355,98 2.319,38 2.340,69 2.328,31 2.235,52 2.412,85 2.487,19 2.875,07 2.898,76 2.720,97 2.840,96 2.970,39 2.893,41 2.821,94 2.746,43 2.990,99 3.169,84 3.292,76 3.487,69 3.723,99 3.853,11 4.570,20 4.778,65 4.834,99 4.892,70 4.499,44 5.096,98 5.403,20 6.517,65 7.165,83 7.345,47 8.333,74 9.031,79 9.764,71 9.732,03 8.712,51 9.946,98 11.110,16 13.956,72 16.492,88

974,44 988,30 972,25 945,33 924,35 926,59 915,56 873,26 936,34 958,90 1.101,25 1.103,18 1.028,89 1.067,43 1.109,01 1.073,49 1.040,44 1.006,32 1.089,18 1.147,24 1.184,48 1.247,01 1.323,32 1.342,95 1.562,90 1.604,01 1.593,49 1.583,79 1.431,00 1.593,17 1.660,33 1.969,48 2.129,93 2.121,97 2.341,65 2.470,27 2.601,51 2.527,30 2.184,20 2.410,23 2.604,91 3.169,69 3.631,76

7.091,87 7.084,69 7.638,53 8.042,38 8.896,14 8.941,07 9.951,85 9.682,79 10.067,41 10.251,94 8.663,21 8.384,33 10.277,91 10.499,13 10.632,76 9.122,50 10.304,84 8.931,42 9.258,15 11.151,47 11.992,22 12.514,31 11.471,86 11.263,78 13.797,61 14.519,39 12.194,79 9.607,30 8.117,83 10.003,18 12.076,15 12.771,06 13.398,80 15.234,66 15.409,97 15.733,44 16.363,61 16.178,17 16.929,33 17.412,89 17.741,52 19.274,36 20.924,58

2.287,48 2.259,24 2.408,40 2.507,31 2.742,52 2.725,69 3.000,11 2.886,53 2.967,75 2.988,35 2.496,85 2.389,09 2.895,18 2.923,32 2.925,88 2.480,49 2.768,18 2.369,80 2.425,78 2.884,60 3.061,68 3.152,44 2.850,49 2.759,78 3.332,36 3.455,43 2.858,76 2.217,67 1.844,46 2.236,35 2.655,49 2.761,24 2.847,46 3.181,24 3.160,89 3.169,25 3.236,21 3.140,72 3.225,68 3.256,11 3.255,81 3.471,49 3.699,34

4.503,00

1.038,99

4.656,00

1.052,92

4.977,00 5.069,00

1.103,06 1.101,00

5.148,00

1.096,02

5.421,00 5.682,00

1.131,02 1.161,96

5.993,00

1.201,00

6.292,00 6.420,23

1.235,91 1.235,85

6.199,00

1.163,04

6.173,00 6.854,00

1.128,93 1.221,96

7.434,00

1.291,97

7.391,00 7.588,00

1.252,08 1.252,97

7.797,00

1.254,95

7.999,00 8.206,00

1.254,94 1.254,93

8.420,00

1.255,03

8.637,00 8.859,92

1.255,01 1.254,77

9.707,39

1.340,24

10.580,54 11.357,39

1.423,84 1.489,69

11.768,29

1.504,70

11.665,56 11.594,94

1.474,04 1.447,74

12.243,38

1.510,78

12.930,35 12.660,70

1.576,68 1.525,57

14.079,57

1.676,54

14.824,32 15.055,45

1.744,45 1.750,84

16.037,74

1.842,99

17.020,04 17.385,99

1.904,87 1.895,14

17.681,32

1.877,20

17.713,42 17.790,46

1.831,60 1.791,59

18.991,05

1.862,60

19.883,46 21.681,13

1.899,27 2.017,04

206

1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

16.573,86 20.275,70 21.128,93 23.493,61 26.234,87 28.145,44 29.886,19 32.764,05 35.673,29 39.440,91 44.020,75 44.605,92 48.115,11 50.031,22 52.563,89 57.317,25 61.243,62 67.206,09 71.149,07 72.812,29 75.745,53 79.684,82 83.007,74 89.353,59 92.097,69 95.097,67 101.046,46 107.173,49 113.676,39 123.646,92 131.958,63 134.780,38 136.580,37 133.864,51 133.460,39 134.370,97 126.823,37 125.106,32 125.348,15 133.508,75 138.290,57 146.340,97 133.799,72

3.541,88 4.208,76 4.263,64 4.612,28 4.930,56 5.073,05 5.174,92 5.458,53 5.726,49 6.068,39 6.503,02 6.336,83 6.582,97 6.601,37 6.668,99 7.002,91 7.215,57 7.645,19 7.824,11 7.730,30 7.773,09 7.913,03 7.984,90 8.334,37 8.279,38 8.250,43 8.470,63 8.690,90 8.926,76 9.363,14 9.648,15 9.526,15 9.342,12 8.870,36 8.590,13 8.407,78 7.720,42 7.414,87 7.238,23 7.500,09 7.563,31 7.797,43 6.950,17

18.666,39 21.771,98 21.302,50 22.351,78 23.325,95 24.828,27 26.699,14 25.835,30 26.807,12 27.257,82 30.055,90 31.706,11 29.910,36 32.391,54 33.940,66 35.548,98 37.797,87 38.638,90 38.951,22 43.294,73 44.700,33 46.300,69 48.023,45 49.010,95 53.400,00 52.752,16 49.816,50 50.301,96 43.807,84 45.349,10 49.819,92 53.913,82 58.378,78 63.016,92 66.931,66 57.837,01 56.216,40 59.525,04 60.696,66 64.093,38 68.311,24 73.289,66 81.061,94

3.240,15 3.711,88 3.568,80 3.669,74 3.731,00 3.893,03 4.112,13 3.907,25 3.975,39 3.956,81 4.264,20 4.391,56 4.042,03 4.270,28 4.366,30 4.465,25 4.639,28 4.638,29 4.577,14 4.984,45 5.045,81 5.127,64 5.220,44 5.231,43 5.597,31 5.428,56 5.033,68 4.991,99 4.273,29 4.347,03 4.700,08 5.010,66 5.344,66 5.680,41 5.932,45 5.034,95 4.810,23 5.010,89 5.029,55 5.227,42 5.480,24 5.780,40 6.282,90

22.535,02

2.041,96

23.234,82

2.050,37

24.518,87 24.955,00

2.107,34 2.152,84

25.726,00

2.150,10

27.350,00 29.026,00

2.214,44 2.276,62

31.042,00

2.358,46

32.242,00 33.539,00

2.372,76 2.390,64

34.766,00

2.399,97

35.639,00 38.207,00

2.382,56 2.473,47

39.831,00

2.496,81

41.847,00 44.120,00

2.539,86 2.593,79

45.571,00

2.597,23

48.389,00 50.136,00

2.674,90 2.688,81

52.806,00

2.750,06

55.028,00 58.398,00

2.784,25 2.873,68

62.116,00

2.976,45

66.308,00 70.250,00

3.094,22 3.194,26

75.637,00

3.355,25

80.728,00 85.370,00

3.499,38 3.617,68

87.347,00

3.620,60

91.488,00 95.283,00

3.713,29 3.793,26

103.366,00

4.041,68

108.906,00 113.375,00

4.177,12 4.257,26

115.789,00

4.254,60

116.938,00 118.806,00

4.202,47 4.175,22

123.037,00

4.228,66

127.076,00 134.844,00

4.271,75 4.435,66

142.086,00

4.577,22

147.896,00 152.686,00

4.669,47 4.726,10

207

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

142.453,81 156.314,40 165.787,80 166.244,36 162.338,43 168.753,50 168.419,64 179.149,54 179.676,34 168.948,84 175.177,89 181.123,84 165.084,15 152.281,38 180.128,48 198.713,98 218.331,32 236.129,48 247.420,51

México PIB $1990 miles

7.218,43 7.739,59 8.024,95 7.870,97 7.521,67 7.655,59 7.484,66 7.803,13 7.674,30 7.078,65 7.205,74 7.313,53 6.545,79 5.931,45 6.894,25 7.476,80 8.077,17 8.591,77 8.857,08

84.038,00 90.734,54 101.873,66 109.003,84 117.598,68 127.482,47 136.918,41 145.962,66 150.678,54 149.532,09 156.244,70 161.521,15 165.049,00 171.486,00 181.775,00 191.954,00 200.784,00 210.221,00 216.948,00

Pib Per cápita Argentina dólares 1990 PIB $1990 miles

6.400,94 6.794,56 7.505,06 7.905,13 8.399,31 8.973,22 9.504,92 9.996,76 10.186,49 9.984,12 10.309,10 10.534,90 10.645,58 10.942,19 11.478,59 12.000,88 12.431,68 12.893,83 13.185,12

Pib Per cápita dólares 1990

159.042,00

4.825,74

161.587,00

4.805,85

167.889,00 175.444,00

4.892,73 5.010,97

186.496,00

5.222,95

196.567,00 200.695,00

5.399,90 5.410,44

203.706,00

5.391,62

205.132,00 196.722,00

5.332,67 5.025,47

202.230,00

5.078,99

205.204,00 209.163,00

5.068,77 5.083,56

218.784,00

5.233,82

229.067,00 242.124,00

5.395,65 5.617,73

258.831,00

5.917,22

278.243,00 284.921,00

6.269,56 6.329,61

Brasil PIB $1990 miles

Pib Per cápita dólares 1990

1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 1791 1792 1793 1794 1795 1796 1797 1798 1799 1800

208

1801 1802 1803 1804 1805 1806 1807 1808 1809 1810 1811 1812 1813 1814 1815 1816 1817 1818 1819 1820 1821 1822 1823 1824 1825 1826 1827 1828 1829 1830 1831 1832 1833 1834 1835 1836 1837 1838 1839 1840 1841 1842 1843

5.000,00

759,07

2.912,00

646,11

209

1844 1845 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886

6.214,00

674,04

2.353,88

1.310,63

4.959,00

685,51

6.985,00 7.154,00 7.327,00 7.504,00 7.686,00 7.872,00 8.062,00 8.257,00 8.457,00 8.662,00 8.871,00 9.086,00 9.306,00 9.531,00 9.761,00 9.998,00 10.240,00

712,97 716,83 720,66 724,46 728,39 732,35 736,19 740,14 744,13 748,14 752,16 756,22 760,29 764,31 768,40 772,58 776,76

210

1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929

11.860,00

1.011,17

14.337,00

1.132,20

18.585,00

1.365,84 1.466,16 1.347,89 1.482,75 1.492,33 1.629,67 1.594,26 1.669,05 1.649,30 1.680,00 1.693,53 1.706,74 1.718,29 1.731,53 1.744,32 1.757,19 1.770,15 1.783,26 1.796,45 1.809,73 1.823,09 1.835,92 1.850,35 1.884,10 1.825,04 1.908,04 1.991,18 1.874,79 1.856,74 1.757,21

20.167,00 18.741,00 20.840,00 21.203,00 23.407,00 23.147,00 24.495,00 24.469,00 25.195,00 25.403,00 25.584,00 25.740,00 25.921,00 26.095,00 26.270,00 26.446,00 26.624,00 26.803,00 26.983,00 27.164,00 27.346,00 27.994,00 28.953,00 28.487,00 30.250,00 32.064,00 30.664,00 30.846,00 29.653,00

7.265,08

2.151,98

12.931,84 14.036,13 13.745,52 15.721,62 17.407,12 19.702,89 20.690,94 21.126,84 23.190,12 24.352,53 26.125,21 26.590,18 28.769,70 29.060,30 26.038,03 26.183,33 25.427,77 23.364,48 27.665,41 28.682,52 30.774,86 31.559,49 34.058,68 37.836,52 40.771,61 40.597,24 42.544,28 45.566,56 48.414,47 50.623,05

2.755,56 2.880,39 2.716,51 2.992,32 3.191,04 3.478,62 3.518,27 3.459,45 3.657,17 3.698,74 3.821,71 3.746,15 3.903,62 3.797,24 3.302,22 3.243,72 3.091,15 2.790,12 3.247,88 3.307,49 3.473,07 3.471,13 3.635,64 3.897,86 4.055,26 3.919,41 3.994,02 4.155,64 4.291,30 4.367,07

10.487,00 10.741,00 11.001,00 11.267,00 11.232,00 10.865,00 9.474,00 9.695,00 12.519,00 11.616,00 11.712,00 12.300,00 12.347,00 12.201,00 13.425,00 13.425,00 13.693,00 13.961,00 14.365,00 15.735,00 15.754,00 15.639,00 16.886,00 17.078,00 18.959,00 18.747,00 19.188,00 18.844,00 19.688,00 20.263,00 21.664,00 21.223,00 24.024,00 26.393,00 26.944,00 28.801,00 30.454,00 30.434,00 30.556,00 31.210,00 33.476,00 37.333,00 37.415,00

780,86 785,05 789,28 793,51 772,54 729,88 621,57 621,20 783,42 709,94 699,10 717,03 702,97 678,44 729,94 714,78 713,92 712,77 718,14 770,30 755,23 734,12 776,23 768,73 835,68 809,18 810,99 779,93 797,92 804,18 841,91 807,66 895,25 963,11 963,35 1.009,07 1.045,60 1.023,92 1.007,38 1.008,30 1.059,80 1.158,19 1.137,44

211

1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972

27.787,00 28.720,00 24.417,00 27.191,00 29.031,00 31.183,00 33.671,00 34.786,00 35.356,00 37.248,00 37.767,00 40.851,00 43.754,00 45.387,00 49.094,00 50.623,00 53.967,00 55.807,00 58.114,00 61.303,00 67.368,00 72.578,00 75.481,00 75.688,00 83.258,00 90.307,00 96.502,00 103.812,00 109.333,00 112.599,00 121.723,00 126.365,00 132.039,00 141.839,00 157.312,00 167.116,00 177.427,00 188.258,00 201.669,00 213.924,00 227.970,00 237.480,00 257.636,00

1.617,87 1.643,02 1.372,51 1.501,02 1.573,92 1.660,35 1.768,43 1.795,87 1.794,27 1.858,03 1.851,96 1.949,46 2.032,05 2.051,39 2.159,50 2.133,83 2.210,58 2.221,44 2.247,95 2.304,36 2.365,02 2.477,38 2.503,99 2.439,09 2.605,14 2.742,40 2.842,82 2.964,74 3.025,10 3.016,44 3.155,20 3.172,11 3.210,95 3.342,56 3.593,68 3.701,97 3.812,53 3.922,40 4.072,57 4.185,48 4.319,65 4.364,89 4.601,93

48.530,71 45.159,71 43.677,64 45.711,86 49.344,40 51.523,92 51.872,64 55.650,48 55.882,96 58.004,37 58.963,36 61.985,63 62.712,14 62.218,11 69.279,76 67.042,12 73.028,54 81.136,37 85.640,71 84.478,30 85.524,00 88.866,00 84.333,00 88.866,00 92.528,00 99.125,00 101.856,00 107.087,00 113.655,00 106.303,00 114.614,00 122.809,00 120.833,00 117.927,00 130.074,00 141.960,00 142.919,00 146.755,00 153.002,00 166.080,00 174.972,00 183.458,00 189.183,00

4.079,58 3.711,66 3.521,82 3.621,31 3.844,82 3.950,01 3.911,96 4.125,31 4.071,92 4.147,91 4.161,43 4.303,96 4.284,20 4.182,17 4.578,97 4.356,21 4.665,17 5.089,47 5.251,78 5.047,40 4.986,72 5.073,03 4.717,41 4.874,49 4.979,83 5.237,00 5.285,31 5.460,69 5.697,98 5.241,47 5.559,47 5.861,84 5.677,23 5.455,44 5.926,13 6.370,75 6.320,60 6.398,95 6.577,76 7.037,28 7.301,97 7.529,94 7.634,57

35.187,00 34.401,00 35.599,00 38.374,00 41.585,00 42.722,00 46.824,00 48.355,00 50.376,00 50.876,00 51.381,00 54.981,00 52.944,00 60.317,00 62.562,00 64.236,00 71.013,00 73.523,00 79.157,00 84.239,00 89.342,00 93.608,00 99.181,00 103.957,00 110.836,00 118.960,00 120.674,00 130.717,00 142.577,00 154.538,00 167.397,00 179.951,00 190.932,00 192.912,00 199.423,00 203.444,00 216.181,00 224.877,00 244.921,00 266.292,00 292.480,00 322.159,00 356.880,00

1.048,23 1.004,23 1.018,37 1.075,72 1.142,32 1.149,99 1.235,10 1.249,90 1.275,99 1.262,78 1.249,72 1.306,92 1.229,28 1.367,95 1.385,92 1.389,94 1.500,92 1.517,88 1.596,23 1.659,26 1.671,72 1.702,10 1.752,24 1.784,17 1.847,60 1.925,74 1.896,44 1.994,12 2.111,21 2.221,00 2.334,86 2.437,27 2.510,96 2.463,23 2.472,18 2.448,39 2.526,74 2.553,97 2.704,25 2.859,84 3.056,72 3.278,47 3.537,88

212

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

279.302,00 296.370,00 312.998,00 326.267,00 337.499,00 365.340,00 398.788,00 431.983,00 469.972,00 466.649,00 446.602,00 462.678,00 475.505,00 457.655,00 466.148,00 471.953,00 491.767,00 516.692,00 538.508,00 558.049,00 568.934,00 594.054,00 557.419,00 586.144,00 625.759,00 657.263,00 681.982,00 726.934,00 726.676,00 732.256,00 742.508,00 772.208,00 797.691,00 837.576,00 866.576,00 877.312,00

4.852,59 5.012,78 5.158,34 5.243,77 5.293,27 5.595,14 5.967,57 6.320,39 6.716,84 6.513,72 6.087,57 6.162,46 6.194,11 5.834,28 5.817,94 5.770,88 5.898,83 6.084,91 6.226,39 6.333,47 6.339,16 6.503,92 6.001,47 6.209,25 6.525,45 6.753,28 6.915,47 7.274,68 7.177,26 7.145,36 7.158,91 7.357,19 7.511,01 7.795,06 7.972,11 7.978,80

200.720,00 213.739,00 211.850,00 211.327,00 224.084,00 214.233,00 229.547,00 232.802,00 219.434,00 212.518,00 220.016,00 224.491,00 209.641,00 224.985,00 230.797,00 226.438,00 212.373,00 212.518,00 233.770,00 254.575,00 269.341,00 291.696,00 282.653,00 295.090,00 318.698,00 334.314,00 322.947,00 320.364,00 306.237,00 272.876,00 296.889,00 323.609,00 353.381,00 383.418,00 416.776,00 445.117,00

7.961,97 8.334,08 8.122,50 7.965,20 8.304,38 7.807,25 8.226,91 8.205,98 7.606,56 7.245,76 7.387,05 7.425,85 6.834,93 7.223,79 7.297,93 7.054,36 6.520,11 6.432,92 6.977,38 7.494,77 7.828,09 8.370,76 8.013,07 8.269,76 8.827,71 9.154,77 8.746,50 8.580,57 8.124,29 7.181,14 7.744,39 8.352,92 9.019,19 9.678,85 10.406,65 10.995,43

401.643,00 433.322,00 455.918,00 498.823,00 522.154,00 548.342,00 587.289,00 639.093,00 611.007,00 614.538,00 593.575,00 625.438,00 675.090,00 729.252,00 753.685,00 751.910,00 776.547,00 743.765,00 751.203,00 748.949,00 782.652,00 831.176,00 866.086,00 891.202,00 925.068,00 926.918,00 934.333,00 975.444,00 988.197,00 1.007.295,00 1.018.375,00 1.076.423,00 1.110.868,00 1.155.303,00 1.201.514,00 1.262.279,00

3.880,12 4.080,94 4.187,38 4.469,62 4.565,36 4.678,41 4.889,96 5.195,03 4.849,57 4.762,83 4.498,14 4.643,23 4.913,96 5.201,66 5.269,53 5.154,55 5.223,68 4.920,06 4.891,15 4.799,97 4.937,49 5.162,04 5.295,74 5.365,91 5.485,49 5.414,21 5.377,02 5.532,24 5.524,67 5.552,34 5.535,85 5.772,05 5.877,83 6.033,89 6.195,96 6.428,95

Fuente ; Venezuela calculos propios y otros paises Angus Maddison web page.

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